2025-2026 ENSO

[TheClimateChanger]

If the current long-term trend were to continue, we would be seeing mean January temperatures of about 39.5F in northeast Ohio and about 44F in coastal New York.  Those are warmer than March averages today. Again, that is only extrapolating the ongoing trend. The reality is that the trend is actually accelerating as @bluewavepointed out. Not out of the question, we see warming as high 15-20F per century in the coming decades. Just unbelievable.

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

If the current long-term trend were to continue, we would be seeing mean January temperatures of about 39.5F in northeast Ohio and about 44F in coastal New York.  Those are warmer than March averages today. Again, that is only extrapolating the ongoing trend. The reality is that the trend is actually accelerating as @bluewavepointed out. Not out of the question, we see warming as high 15-20F per century in the coming decades. Just unbelievable.

Great news. Think of the savings on heating.

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Great news. Think of the savings on heating.

Yeah, some areas will definitely stand to benefit from these changes. Others might not fare as well, with sea level rises and such.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Since 2010, the only summers that were below the 1981-2010 average here at PHL were 2014 and 2023. However, June 2023 was significantly cooler than September 2023, and if you used JAS 2023 instead of JJA, it would have been above the 1981-2010 summer (JJA) average.

JJA 2014 (75.7) finished .2F below the 1981-2010 average, and JJA 2023 (75.8) finished .1F below the average. JAS 2023 was 76.1F, which would have been above the 1981-2010 JJA average.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just continuing with this insane +AO. This has been on of the most positive AO years May - July so far.  Kind of reminds me of the 80s/90s. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Jan - March 6-8 months after a +AO July

Looks like there is tendency for a -EPO March. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The roll-forward regression for February looks like what we saw mid-Winter last year.. big +NAO/-PNA. Last year also had a very big +AO May-July so it makes sense that it shows something similar

[snowman19]

There are a few studies that show a very strong tendency for 2nd year -ENSO winter’s to be -PNA dominant

[Stormchaserchuck1]

To test my theory of "evening out", let's see what the AAO does in the first half of August this year. This was last year:

2024  8  2 -3.455
2024  8  3 -4.415
2024  8  4 -4.459
2024  8  5 -4.338
2024  8  6 -4.279
2024  8  7 -4.152
2024  8  8 -3.808
2024  8  9 -3.399
2024  8 10 -3.415
2024  8 11 -3.595
2024  8 12 -3.506
2024  8 13 -3.395
2024  8 14 -3.511
2024  8 15 -3.040

Edit: It's suppose to hit +3 in the next few days, which it usually doesn't deviate from +1-2. Maybe there is a little bit of general time leeway too.