2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, CP_WinterStorm said:

The Euro's Copernicus actually has an IOD forecast for most models:

Good stuff. If that's the Indian Ocean anomalies during the Fall we can expect higher probability for a +WPO Winter

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The further into the Summer you go, the stronger the Jan-Feb PNA correlation is to PDO

 

[snowman19]

Look at this -PDO taking shape

It’s also one hell of a -PMM developing. Would not surprise me if we go weak La Niña. Cold-neutral is pretty much guaranteed

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Look at this -PDO taking shape

Taking shape? Haven't we've been in a -PDO for at least the last 5.5 years, since January 2020?

2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.53 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.99
2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.13 -2.75 -2.71
2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.24 -1.32 -2.64 -2.38 -2.29 -1.81 -2.41 -2.21
2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.07 -2.42 -2.53 -2.52 -2.47 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66
2024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03
2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71

[snowman19]

Taking shape? Haven't we've been in a -PDO for at least the last 5.5 years, since January 2020?

2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.53 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.992021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.13 -2.75 -2.712022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.24 -1.32 -2.64 -2.38 -2.29 -1.81 -2.41 -2.212023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.07 -2.42 -2.53 -2.52 -2.47 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.662024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.032025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71

We have but we appear to be going back into a severely negative PDO again

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It’s also one hell of a -PMM developing. Would not surprise me if we go weak La Niña. Cold-neutral is pretty much guaranteed

I don't really care what the ONI does, I'm considering modest la Nina analogs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We have but we appear to be going back into a severely negative PDO again

I think the fluctuation earlier this year was the first sign of the longer term trend line beginning to sway upward...but you don't just go from 0-100 coming out of this....its going to be a 2 steps forward, one stap back deal protracted over several years.

[CP_WinterStorm]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the fluctuation earlier this year was the first sign of the longer term trend line beginning to sway upward...but you don't just go from 0-100 coming out of this....its going to be a 2 steps forward, one stap back deal protracted over several years.

I've noted that the JAMSTEC actually does a decent job at this distance with the overall configuration of the SSTA in the Pacific during the DJF period. That said, the current forecast makes a half assed effort at a PDO regime change during the upcoming DJF period:

Far from a solid +PDO but hopefully the severely negative period we're headed into, again, will be short lived.