2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here's what I'm looking at Ray

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The decadal NAO may be more realistically 20 years from changing its state. Early 1900s - positive, 60s and 70s - negative, peak positive lately? 

Maybe so, but we should get thrown a bone around or shortly after solar min.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe so, but we should get thrown a bone around or shortly after solar min.

Yeah, I'm just saying the cycle is long so it could take decades to fully change.. Since Winter 11-12, 83% of the Winter months have had +NAO [CPC]... Given that we are still near the peak and active Solar Max, I would say the odds right now are 70-75% that next Winter is +NAO (DJFM). I agree that it should start coming down after that, but it may take up to 20 years to leave the decadal +NAO state. The 1920s were very positive, and although the 1930s did see a substantial drop, the 1940s and early 1950s went back to positive.. if you smooth that all out, it's about 20 years after a peak phase for it to come down to neutral. I would say the Solar Min in the late 2030s is the big one.  

Also just being outside in the Winter.. I can feel the Atlantic subtropical jet, see it in the cloud cover and stuff. That's why I've kind of intuitively known that snowfall isn't big for the last 10 or so years. And I still feel that as strong, being near a peak, no change anytime soon.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, I'm just saying the cycle is long so it could take decades to fully change.. Since Winter 11-12, 83% of the Winter months have had +NAO [CPC]... Given that we are still near the peak and active Solar Max, I would say the odds right now are 70-75% that next Winter is +NAO (DJFM). I agree that it should start coming down after that, but it may take up to 20 years to leave the decadal +NAO state. The 1920s were very positive, and although the 1930s did see a substantial drop, the 1940s and early 1950s went back to positive.. if you smooth that all out, it's about 20 years after a peak phase for it to come down to neutral. I would say the Solar Min in the late 2030s is the big one.  

Also just being outside in the Winter.. I can feel the Atlantic subtropical jet, see it in the cloud cover and stuff. That's why I've kind of intuitively known that snowfall isn't big for the last 10 or so years. And I still feel that as strong, being near a peak, no change anytime soon.  

No, I agree with all of this...I wasn't trying to imply that I expect to enter the -NAO muiltidecadal cycle  around the next solar min...I meant literally maybe one season that averages more negative. My larger point concerning solar min is that if we don't see a good winter through the next solar min, then I will start to consider CC as a larger contributor. I do not expect a flip in the NAO decadal cycle....PDO, I do.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I agree with all of this...I wasn't trying to imply that I expect to enter the -NAO muiltidecadal cycle  around the next solar min...I meant literally maybe one season that averages more negative. My larger point concerning solar min is that if we don't see a good winter through the next solar min, then I will start to consider CC as a larger contributor. I do not expect a flip in the NAO decadal cycle....PDO, I do.

I definitely expect the PDO to start changing, maybe because of this more active solar period. One "bone" with this is, +3-6 years after a Strong Nino and +2-5 years after 4/5 La Nina's, we see El Nino's happen over La Nina's about 2:1.. I think we have a higher likelihood for El Nino in 26-27 and/or 27-28.. that may help to change the PDO, ideally.  I do think this La Nina cycle that we have been in since 98-99 won't last much longer. 

We had near record winds in the Northern Hemisphere this Spring.. that is +pdo

How impressive is the global temperature though with 14 La Nina's and 8 El Nino's in the last 27 years.. if ENSO was more even, it would probably be an even higher global temperature over that time (and it's already kind of gone exponential). 

[so_whats_happening]

On 5/11/2025 at 6:16 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice progression of the warm pool on the CPC's subsurface

Yea big reason I feel we see a brief warm neutral state arise by winter time I do not believe the atmospheric state will have enough tipping to allow a Nino like atmosphere throughout but it could very well be a back forth scenario just as we experienced this year. Unless we start to see some pretty drastic reversals occur within the subsurface over the next two or so months.

-AAM in full swing which would indicate at least atmospherically there should be a La Nina signal still well about. This will be important in the coming few months for the hurricane season.

As others have mentioned, with a -AAM, we should still be seeing a pretty decent PV as we get into winter although it will be interesting to see what happens if we do indeed flip the QBO state by fall/winter. I would not expect record levels like we saw this past year.

I do want to see how the pacific typhoon season sets up have yet to see a storm in the WPAC so we may very well see a record again for the latest system to form. The monsoon looks to be rather weak but starting up toward the end of the month across SE Asia.

It looks like we continue with the cool tongue/ -PDO look from the Baja to the central Pac with brief bout of warming into Nino 1+2 and 3. Been awhile since I have looked but thoughts a modoki/ west based la Nina pattern trying to setup?

[so_whats_happening]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

these weird stuck ULL are also responsible for our rainy spring, I'm completely done with them.

We have only had appreciable precip within the last maybe 3 weeks at this point. This will be the first month, at least in the BWI area, that we have seen near to above average precip in nearly 9 months. If it weren't for Debby last August we would have had almost a year and some months of below normal precip and we really didn't get a whole lot from Debby that was into the mountains (WV, VA) and Western PA.

It is a bit late for us to be getting these ULL patterns but not unheard of. I would love to see us finally get back to at least average over the next couple months and hope that this is not just a fluke situation.