TV Severe Weather2025-?

[nrgjeff]

Saturday 2% seems about right. Modest flow is forecast in the upper levels. It's not really backed, but a cooking outflow boundary can take care of the low levels. See how much sun comes out between rounds. Otherwise, summer clusters with some organization and straight wind seems reasonable. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

SPC now has tn almost entirely in slight risk with northeast corner in marginal no longer in the 5% hail risk but 5-15% wind has been moved to cover all of tn 2% tor risk is moved northwest corner of west and middle tn https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html


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[KakashiHatake2000]

SPC has three marginal risks out for Friday Saturday and Sunday Friday and Saturday are just for wind


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[KakashiHatake2000]

SPC has moved marginal risk westward into middle TN for 5% wind also did you check out SPC discussion a upgrade to 60% for wind in the already 45% wind in mid Atlantic New England area


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[Windspeed]

The lightning in these overnight cells gets intense, and if you happen to find yourself under one, look out. I had a tree struck around 2AM here. Virtually no wind. Just periods of frequent CGs.

[KakashiHatake2000]

Yikes glad your safe windspeed


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[KakashiHatake2000]

Tuesday has tn separated between slight risk (top) and marginal risk (bottom) for day three with 5-15% probability here and 30-45% in the Appalachian mountains and mid Atlantic New England area

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

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[KakashiHatake2000]

SPC has slight and marginal out for TN today all hazards 2% tornado with 5% tornado in ky 5% hail and 5-15-30% wind non hatched also not all of TN is in each hazard either except for wind https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html


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[Scottie16]

I have a gut feeling these storms will be worse than they are thought to be tonight.


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[John1122]

They look pretty far away on radar but I'm getting thunder and lightning already. 

[Scottie16]

They look pretty far away on radar but I'm getting thunder and lightning already. 

I have had thunder off and on. Wind is still strong out of the southeast. It’ll be interesting to see how it’ll interact with any energy from Berthas outer bands once it gets closer on the plateau/valley. Usually storms closer to the gulf limit us here iirc but some storms are producing out the far end of the bands in the upper regions of GA/AL.


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[KakashiHatake2000]

Nice supercell sort of near south ky might clip northern counties in middle TN


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[Carvers Gap]

That line incoming over middle Tenn looks nasty.

[nrgjeff]

Kentucky supercells just don't care if the low levels are all veered off. Kentucky gonna Kentucky. I doubt they are as strong after sunset so I agree with SPC. No Crossville special. Just barely out of the 2%.

Separately I got a kick out of two NYC anchors who are from the Midwest or South talking about their tornado risk today. Weather people are all the same. Totally forgot their audience is probably terrified. Oh well!

[John1122]

It's been thunderstorming here for an hour but it's just now actually raining. That may have been the longest, loudest, closest thunder I've seen that wasn't producing rain. 

There's a gap to my NW in the storms and I'm completely fine if the line break passed my area. I hate straight line wind events. I usually lose power for 12+ hours in them.