TV Severe Weather2025-?

[GBOVolz]

First of next week might get interesting. This is d4-7














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[nrgjeff]

With 5 of the next 8 days in outlooks, I was hoping chaser drama on X would cease, and people would concentrate on the forecast. Silly me! What was I thinking? 

We shall refer to Monday as Monday or whatever day outlook it is (as time passes) and omit the date which shall not be named. Same for that year. Possible another day crops up next week too. That still doesn't make it that year. It makes it spring in the South!

[Runman292]

16 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

With 5 of the next 8 days in outlooks, I was hoping chaser drama on X would cease, and people would concentrate on the forecast. Silly me! What was I thinking? 

We shall refer to Monday as Monday or whatever day outlook it is (as time passes) and omit the date which shall not be named. Same for that year. Possible another day crops up next week too. That still doesn't make it that year. It makes it spring in the South!

Jeff, I have a question out of curiosity. It may just be me, but it seems like almost all severe weather threats in East TN take place in the late evening/overnight hours. Afternoon severe weather events appear to be somewhat rare. Is there any truth to this, and what causes this?

[jaxjagman]

38 minutes ago, Runman292 said:

Jeff, I have a question out of curiosity. It may just be me, but it seems like almost all severe weather threats in East TN take place in the late evening/overnight hours. Afternoon severe weather events appear to be somewhat rare. Is there any truth to this, and what causes this?

More like the whole state.TN leads leads the nation with 46% being nocturnal tornadoes

[nrgjeff]

Yeah @jaxjagman Tennessee overnight is one of the highest state proportions in the Union. @Runman292 I was gonna say that's just since I moved here, lol! But Jax is right. 

Living in East Tennessee reminds me of living in eastern Kansas. Things get rockin' in the western part of the state, sometimes middle. Then the leftovers roll through at night. Occasionally it does start east and we get tornadoes too. Otherwise just like I now drive southwest to North Alabama, I used to drive southwest toward Wichita. 

Which brings us to Monday. Still looks possible Mid-South. Euro has the ol' east crap-out. Fresh 12Z GFS keeps it going. A lower scenario option is always the classic midday MCS shut-down. We'll see.

[Carvers Gap]

I will say this....in NE TN, many of the tornadoes have been daytime recently.  The one that did $30k worth of hail damage to my house was during the day.  Now, when I lived in Knoxville...it was almost all nighttime.  NE TN has to almost have a sustained SW to NE track of whatever system is required to produce tornado activity here.  Derecho stuff sometimes will do it from the NW.  But it requires a huge SW fetch to get that type of severe into NE TN.  IDK...maybe that is why daytime threats are worse here.  Knoxville and points west...totally different animal.  I don't even know if I can name a daytime threat in Knoxville, but remember having to go to the basement many times as a kid at night during crazy bad storms.  The '93 outbreak(college at UT at the time) I am pretty sure was evening or night...maybe during a Friends season final episode.

[nrgjeff]

I notice sometimes northeast TN (Tri cities especially east of MRX) can get going in the early afternoon on what's otherwise a Carolina day. That's mainly later in the season. Carvers may be talking about other examples. All I know is that it frustrates me to no end. I'm not going to chase east initiation, because it creates a long drive home. 

Euro came in a little hotter Monday. Nothing major but definitely supports a severe weather D6 outlook. Winds from 850 to 500 turn pretty well nearly 60 degrees vs say 45 deg. LLJ is still shown weakening / lifting north. That latter detail and/or any midday rain keeps Monday off the crazy train. Definitely watch it though.

[KakashiHatake2000]

Any updates for today spc has a 15 yellow high lighted risk for west and western portion of middle tn and along i65 with a 30 orange high lighted risk clipping far northwest tn and upper Mississippi River valley for Monday


.

[nrgjeff]

Yeah Monday is coming into focus in the Mississippi Valley. Worst severe may be just north of most of us up in Illinois. Then we'll see if STL can double down on Missouri as the Show Me State.

For the storm anxious around here.. Exit ramp now looks more like warm mid-levels than MCS washout. Guess it doesn't matter either way if you don't like tornadoes. Either way if NWP holds, should be some wind west Monday night. Other hazards are TBD; much can change either direction until then.

Fairly solid upper level winds remain over the Deep South the rest of next week. Could be another chance or two. However a dry dewpoint push after Monday could mitigate rapid moisture return. We'll see.

[Matthew70]

50 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Yeah Monday is coming into focus in the Mississippi Valley. Worst severe may be just north of most of us up in Illinois. Then we'll see if STL can double down on Missouri as the Show Me State.

For the storm anxious around here.. Exit ramp now looks more like warm mid-levels than MCS washout. Guess it doesn't matter either way if you don't like tornadoes. Either way if NWP holds, should be some wind west Monday night. Other hazards are TBD; much can change either direction until then.

Fairly solid upper level winds remain over the Deep South the rest of next week. Could be another chance or two. However a dry dewpoint push after Monday could mitigate rapid moisture return. We'll see.

Definitely something to watch.  That hint of a possible secondary low on the GFS is something I never like to see.  That backs the winds. Then we might have the leftover boundaries from storms, which is a bad thing by adding fuel to the fire. If anything, I see some strong winds and hail.  

[jaxjagman]

On 4/23/2026 at 1:10 PM, nrgjeff said:

Yeah Monday is coming into focus in the Mississippi Valley. Worst severe may be just north of most of us up in Illinois. Then we'll see if STL can double down on Missouri as the Show Me State.

For the storm anxious around here.. Exit ramp now looks more like warm mid-levels than MCS washout. Guess it doesn't matter either way if you don't like tornadoes. Either way if NWP holds, should be some wind west Monday night. Other hazards are TBD; much can change either direction until then.

Fairly solid upper level winds remain over the Deep South the rest of next week. Could be another chance or two. However a dry dewpoint push after Monday could mitigate rapid moisture return. We'll see.

Yes the last few runs the GFS develops a cap in MID TN Into the east,but we'll see soon enough how strong that cap actually is as the, LLJ kicks something like 35-45 kts,that cap might not materialize as shown.Might be picking shit from cherry blossoms other wise with severe..lol

On the other hand the last few runs could be a better severe threat even early Wed,maybe nocturnal if the shortwave around the MO/Valley is real what the Euro is showing

[Matthew70]

6 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Yes the last few runs the GFS develops a cap in MID TN Into the east,but we'll see soon enough how strong that cap actually is as the, LLJ kicks something like 35-45 kts,that cap might not materialize as shown.Might be picking shit from cherry blossoms other wise with severe..lol

On the other hand the last few runs could be a better severe threat even early Wed,maybe nocturnal if the shortwave around the MO/Valley is real what the Euro is showing

Definitely some interesting days ahead.  NAM yes the egg nog drunk NAM at its end which is poor resolution paints conditions into the area west/middle TN. Conditions that anything that can take advantage of that environment could be quite rambunctious. 

[jaxjagman]

37 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Definitely some interesting days ahead.  NAM yes the egg nog drunk NAM at its end which is poor resolution paints conditions into the area west/middle TN. Conditions that anything that can take advantage of that environment could be quite rambunctious. 

Wouldnt trust any model right now in our parts,GFS even looks much better tonight,east of the Cymberland,late Monday

[jaxjagman]

These models can be real shitty with severe,just like today.Nashville has been telling people for the last few days to not let your guard down today,which the models have been showing with basically wind dmg.We didnt get next to nothing,not even a drop of rain

[dwagner88]

Major whiff on the rain today. We needed it so badly too.