GBOVolz Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Week 2 has been growing NE over the last several days. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted Tuesday at 06:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:28 PM Any of you all going to be at the Knox County MRX certification tonight? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted Wednesday at 12:06 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:06 PM Tuesday d7 has has potential . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted Wednesday at 12:06 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:06 PM Tuesday d7 has has potential . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted Wednesday at 12:07 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:07 PM I don’t understand the double post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted Wednesday at 12:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:19 PM Appears that the first third of March could be active for severe. We have a remarkable signal for west trough and east ridge, with a strong jet stream driven by the still cold Arctic. SPC already has Wednesday in their Day 6, and that's probably just the beginning. Sometimes it's easier to infer long-range things from the heavy rain outlook(s). Grey flooding is pretty much the 3-7 day outlook from WPC, but this is the long-range from CPC. Period below could feature record high temps from the Mid-South through Tennessee to the Mid-Atlantic. Heights look particularly anomalous over the Mid-Atlantic. Less extreme heights over the Mid-South with still near record surface temps could open the door for severe. Surace details are always TBD, especially a week out. In this situation one can be more confident than usual about week two moisture with the temps (CAPE) thanks to pattern recognition. Several troughs pass without driving the surface front south. That's a recipe for building moisture. All that said, those severe weather anxious should not worry 10 days out. Storm chasers though, need to get ready to roll. Both can be true. Chance of one place being hit is low. Chasers can go to the forecast area though. My spring mode is activated.I’m not sure severe (legit severe) is gonna make it east of Little Rock with the troughs getting kicked out. It’s crazy to think we are working with 80 degree temps and a large open warm sector during the first of March but our but our trough is headed towards Toronto. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted Wednesday at 12:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:22 PM Also I signed up at Aguacerowx. $15 a month ain’t bad. The graphics are good and the site is easy to navigate. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Wednesday at 04:29 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:29 PM Good to see more severe weather interst this season. Not everyone digs it, but a few of us are down! If Tuesday gets going in the Southern Plains and Ozarks then pattern recognition calls for sloppy seconds our way. See Day 7 a few posts back for Tuesday. More recent quoted 8-14 day post is six days old and the chart is way out of date. Heavy precip made it into the WPC 3-7 day but no severe. Next Wednesday Mar. 11 the the door is open for continuing severe, even if no new development. Continuing is of course a messy outcome. Alas, it could all just be heavy rain. See below. Their hatched flood risk has not changed much for the Mid-South (just expanded) since the flooding hatch is a hybrid River and snow melt outlook too. CPC chart from Wed. Mar. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted Thursday at 12:33 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:33 AM Good to see more severe weather interst this season. Not everyone digs it, but a few of us are down! If Tuesday gets going in the Southern Plains and Ozarks then pattern recognition calls for sloppy seconds our way. See Day 7 a few posts back for Tuesday. More recent quoted 8-14 day post is six days old and the chart is way out of date. Heavy precip made it into the WPC 3-7 day but no severe. Next Wednesday Mar. 11 the the door is open for continuing severe, even if no new development. Continuing is of course a messy outcome. Alas, it could all just be heavy rain. See below. Their hatched flood risk has not changed much for the Mid-South (just expanded) since the flooding hatch is a hybrid River and snow melt outlook too. CPC chart from Wed. Mar. 4Agree… I’m thinking Wednesday east of the Mississippi River will be our best chance looking ahead but it doesn’t look great as of now. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted Thursday at 07:25 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:25 PM Also I signed up at Aguacerowx. $15 a month ain’t bad. The graphics are good and the site is easy to navigate. .One thing that’s really cool with the AguaceroWx app is it allows you to customize a Skew T. So when it generates a Skew T, you can actually change the temperature, DP, wind, shear, etc…. To see how that changes the parameters. For example if the SBCAPE is 1500 joules at 70 degrees, you can change the temperature to 75 degrees to see how that changes the CAPE. Pretty cool. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted Friday at 12:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:55 PM 3k NAM @7pm tomorrow. Skew T is for Knoxville. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:34 PM 21 hours ago, GBOVolz said: One thing that’s really cool with the AguaceroWx app is it allows you to customize a Skew T. So when it generates a Skew T, you can actually change the temperature, DP, wind, shear, etc…. To see how that changes the parameters. For example if the SBCAPE is 1500 joules at 70 degrees, you can change the temperature to 75 degrees to see how that changes the CAPE. Pretty cool. . Interesting... I did not know you could do that. I will definitely look into this website more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago Maybe some strong storms next week,tornado threat seems to be low ATM,if the GFS is right there could be some strong storms into Mid South/Mid Tn and Alabama during the nocturnal hours Tuesday morning.main show should be Wed but even that it seems like clouds set in before hand,not very exciting to me ATM,see what the models show tomorrow and Tuesday. We should go into a lull for maybe several days after Wed as the MJO is headed into the WH Mid month,but some uncertainty as where it goes afterwards ATM.CFS the last few days had been showing the tropical forcing going back into the WP not even without a Rossby Wave,thats not gonna happen and it backed off today,not sure what it is but the CFS has this big bias for whatever reason into the WP Nina seems like its on life support now,models have been showing a EWB into the IO towards the end of THE month,that should help take the NINA background out,say hello to NINO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago It will be interesting but does appear the normal chilly to cold spring will keep severe wx away for back half of March. If we run the cycle we have for last several months. Maybe second half of April will be warmer. First half of April looks chilly to cold also. Easter looks chilly which is no surprise there. My wife & I travel to to the Biltmore end of March. We’ve never been & she has always wanted to go see the tulips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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