Roger Smith Posted June 26 Author Share Posted June 26 June scoring is updated in post before previous post (wxdude64 July forecast already entered). If this wraps on your screen, try a lower magnification setting. 90% works for me, 100% wraps. === ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-June 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER ______DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west __ TOTALS Tom ___________________ 401 _438 _474 __1313 __364 _428 _386 __1178 _2491 __446 _416 _390__1252___3743 ___ Consensus ______ 381 _420 _444__1245__354 _474 _372_1200 _2445 _385 _410_460__1255___3700 hudsonvalley21 _______ 367 _434 _482 __1283 __302 _462 _387__1151__2434 __402 _402 _448__1252 ___3686 so_whats_happening __415 _448 _408 __1271 __338 _490 _349 __1177__2448 __348 _340 _458__ 1146 ___ 3594 RJay __________________ 366 _445 _ 463__1274 __392 _486 _370__1248 _2522__333 _319 _363__ 1015___ 3537 Scotty Lightning _______422 _428 _390 __1240 __279 _354 _392 __1025 _2265 __347 _470 _440__1257 ___3522 wxallannj ______________ 331 _368 _410 __ 1109 __ 346 _398 _364 __1108 _2217 __416 _408 _437__ 1261 ___3478 BKViking ______________ 300 _373 _393 __1066 __378 _446 _356__1180 _ 2246 __ 398 _396 _419__1213 ___3459 DonSutherland1 _______313 _362 _404 __1079 __342 _422 _334 __1098 _2177 __ 403 _368 _472__ 1243 ___3420 wxdude64 _____________340 _370 _390 __1100 __266_ 414 _330 __1010 _ 2110 __387 _390 _440__1217 ___3327 StormchaserChuck ___ 389 _394 _408 __1191 __244 _466 _ 279 __989 _ 2180 __ 379 _372 _393__1144 ___3324 RodneyS ______________ 366 _378 _414 __1158 __256 _352 _324 __932 _ 2090 __ 317 _374 _534__1225 ___ 3315 Roger Smith ___________326 _366 _386 __1078 __360 _408 _332 __1100 _2178 __244 _346 _421__ 1011 ___3189 ___ Normal _____________328 _378 _384 __1090 __270 _244 _ 187 __ 701__1791__368 _370 _440__ 1178 ___2969 maxim (2/6) ___________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __ 298__ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 3333 Persistence _____________200 _294 _406 __ 900 ___138 _268 _296 __ 702 _1602 __224 _282 _354 __ 860 ____2462 ____________________________ ________________________________ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 tied for best score ________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS Tom ____________________ 1 __ 1^ _ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2^ __1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____2 __ Mar,Jun ___ Consensus _______ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___0 __ 1 ___0 ___0 hudsonvalley21 ________ 0 __ 2^__2 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 ____0 RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2^__ 0 __ 1^ __ 2 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 1^ ___0 ____0 Scotty Lightning _______ 2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 3 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___ 1 ____0 wxallannj _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*__ 0 ___0 ____0 Don Sutherland 1 _______0 __ 1^__ 1*____0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 wxdude64 ______________1 __ 1 __ 1*___ 2 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____1 _ Jan StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 0 __ 0 ____2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 1^___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr RodneyS _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 _____1 _ May Roger Smith ____________ 1^ __ 2^__1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 __ 2^^__ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Feb ___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 ============================== odd distribution of contest wins, 4/6 go to last four of five regular entrants in total scoring. (two to top scorer Tom) Extreme forecasts So far, 31 of 54 ... 16 for warmest and 15 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1 Forecaster ______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _Jun __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S ________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1 __ 6-2 ___ 5.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0.0 Roger Smith _____________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 ___5-2 ___ 4.5 - 2.0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0 __4-1 ___ 3.5 - 0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _ 0-0 __4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0 ___ Normal _______________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 __ 3-2 ____ 3.0 - 2.0 maxim ____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0 Tom ______________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.5 - 0.0 RJay ______________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ___ 1.0-0.0 so_whats_happening ____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0 __2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland __________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ____1.33-0.0 wxdude64 ________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 2-0 ____ 1.33-0.0 BKViking _________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 wxallannj _________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 ========================================================= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 July 2025 DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA + 1.3 +1.8 +2.1 +2.1 +0.6 +0.4 +2.1 +2.2 +0.9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 July DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 DCA: +2.5 NYC: +2.5 BOS: +2.5 ORD: +2.5 ATL: +2.0 IAH: +2.0 DEN: +2.0 PHX: +2.0 SEA: +0.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 July DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.7 2.5 1.6 0.2 1.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 30 Author Share Posted June 30 +1.7 __ +1.5 __ +1.3 __ +1.2 __ +2.0 __ +2.0 ___ +0.3 __ +1.5 __ +0.7 June scoring is back in thread, everyone did well so there won't be big changes in the annual scoring race which I will update in another "back in thread" post set aside to take on that work (before all July forecasts except wxdude64's early submission) ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.3 1.2 2.4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 July DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA + 1.5 +1.6 +2.1 +1.8 +0.8 +0.4 +.2 +.9 +2 May change a little later but Ill make a note if it does. Edit: Only raised up SEA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 DCA: +1.5 NYC: +1.4 BOS: +1.5 ORD: +1.6 ATL: +0.8 IAH: +0.5 DEN: +1.1 PHX: +1.4 SEA: +0.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.2 0.4 0.8 0.4 -0.3 1.7 1.5 0. 1 0.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.3 2.0 2.3 3.2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 Calling all Vikings. ... Just polishing up the scoring for June and going into the update of annual scoring but I can see from how close the June scores are to each other that there cannot be huge changes in the annual contest, and basically, it's looking very competitive especially given the fact that previous years' usual leaders are a little back of the current leaders. I suspect it's going to be a fully-engaged battle for the title this year (if anyone cares about it that much). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 I always get kind of lost looking back for the updated posts.. you might want to consider making a new post for every new data, projections and all. It's a little easier to navigate and we know when it's happening by seeing a new post in the thread. I need to come back for the rest of the year in this contest! So far I'm performing lower than I thought I should. I used to go with the least popular numbers, but the scoring isn't per place, it's only deviations from values, so it's better to not go against the grain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 It would be similar because I tend to post estimated scoring around the 20th then open the thread for new forecasts, edit the scoring ... but it's not that difficult to find the scoring posts, they are usually before the first forecasts for the current month. I'll go back to the old system (this is the only year I have done it this way) if we keep going into 2026. By the way, all scoring is updated, NYC has "missing" for 30th in CF6, but Don posted on NYC forum that the anomaly was +1.2 and that seems to fit the 1.0 to 29th and daily departure on 30th climate report of +5 ... if I see anything different in days ahead assuming they update that CF6, I will edit the scoring. This was one of the highest scoring months in a while, everyone broke 600 (even Normal and Persistence). Tom with 788 probably has a new p.b., I track that in the Dec 2024 thread at present and haven't gone in there to update yet. That will all migrate to Dec 2025 eventually. The highest score ever in 12 years of contests has been 810. I think several in the contest would have broken that using my ORD forecast (or if I used all eight of yours except ORD). Probably what will make it easier for people in general will be if I migrate scoring tables to end of new forecasts (they are already at beginning of new forecasts). I will do that but I don't think it's that hard to find them, they are generally a lot uglier than the rest of the thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 On 7/1/2025 at 1:55 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I always get kind of lost looking back for the updated posts.. you might want to consider making a new post for every new data, projections and all. It's a little easier to navigate and we know when it's happening by seeing a new post in the thread. I need to come back for the rest of the year in this contest! So far I'm performing lower than I thought I should. I used to go with the least popular numbers, but the scoring isn't per place, it's only deviations from values, so it's better to not go against the grain. I think the whole group are fairly close this year, you are 419 points behind the leader and a lot fewer behind middle of pack, but that 419 points is over 54 forecasts made, so an average of 7.8 points per forecast, a differential which implies a forecast error in relative terms of 0.39 F deg. There's more complexity than that but if the leader (Tom) is 0.39 closer on every forecast, that explains the differential. Probably it's really a spectrum of differentials ranging mostly from you being 1.5 better to him being 2.5 better, or similar. It's not a big difference, is it? To make up 419 points you would need two months of very accurate forecasts against the usual consensus here which is often good but not superb (this month overperformed in general). If you had two months where every forecast you made was 1.0 F better you would gain (in relative terms) 18 x 20 points (360). A slight complication is that a few months are scored on a more generous sliding scale if all forecasts are below a raw score of 60 or if the anomaly is bigger than 5 F deg. If you nailed those sorts of months (more likely in winter) you could make up a lot of ground very fast because if one person breaks 60, everyone else is stuck with their raw scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 Average scores of the regular entrants: Tom 69.3 _ implied average error 1.53 F hudsonvalley21 ... 68.2 (1.6 F) so_whats_happening ... 66.6 (1.68 F) RJay ... 65.4 (1.73 F) (some late pens so avg is really 1.6 F) Scotty Lightning ... 65.2 (1.74 F) wxallannj ... 64.4 (1.78 F) BKViking ... 64.1 (1.8 F) wxdude64 ... 63.5 (1.82 F) DonSutherland ... 63.4 (1.83 F) StormchaserChuck ... 61.6 (1.92 F) RodneyS ... 61.4 (1.93 F) Roger Smith ... 58.7 (2.06 F) Normal ... 55.0 (2.25 F) persistence ... 46 (2.7 F) What this tells us is, our forecast errors range from 1.5 to 2.1 deg on average (slightly larger because a few scores were inflated by max 60) and a random guess against normal would average 2.3 F, using the previous month's data has an average error (or average change) of 2.7 F. Anyone who could maintain a 1.0 F error average would currently be scoring 4200 (and all of us would be lower because there would have been no max 60 scores). Perfect forecasts would currently be scoring 5400. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 3 hours ago, Roger Smith said: I think the whole group are fairly close this year, you are 419 points behind the leader and a lot fewer behind middle of pack, but that 419 points is over 54 forecasts made, so an average of 7.8 points per forecast, a differential which implies a forecast error in relative terms of 0.39 F deg. There's more complexity than that but if the leader (Tom) is 0.39 closer on every forecast, that explains the differential. Probably it's really a spectrum of differentials ranging mostly from you being 1.5 better to him being 2.5 better, or similar. It's not a big difference, is it? To make up 419 points you would need two months of very accurate forecasts against the usual consensus here which is often good but not superb (this month overperformed in general). If you had two months where every forecast you made was 1.0 F better you would gain (in relative terms) 18 x 20 points (360). A slight complication is that a few months are scored on a more generous sliding scale if all forecasts are below a raw score of 60 or if the anomaly is bigger than 5 F deg. If you nailed those sorts of months (more likely in winter) you could make up a lot of ground very fast because if one person breaks 60, everyone else is stuck with their raw scores. Thanks Roger! Very interesting. Fun contest. Good to see everyone doing pretty well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 6 Author Share Posted July 6 Table of forecasts for July 2025 (not sure what happened to BKViking, I sent them a reminder which they acknowledged, but then no forecast ... anyway, here's what the rest of you predicted ...) FORECASTER __________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA RJay __________________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _+2.5 __ +2.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +2.0 _+2.0 _ +0.5 wxallannj ______________________ +2.2 _ +2.3 _+2.5 __+2.2 _+1.7 _ +2.5 __ +1.6 _ +0.2 _ +1.8 StormchaserChuck1 ___________+1.9 _ +1.9 _ +1.9 __ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.3 __ +2.0 _ +2.3 _ +3.2 Roger Smith ___________________+1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 __ +1.2 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +0.3 _ +1.5 _ +0.7 so_whats_happening __________+1.5 _ +1.6 _ +2.1 __ +1.8 _ +0.8 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _ +2.0 DonSutherland1 _______________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 __ +0.3 _ +1.2 _ +2.4 ___ Consensus _________________ +1.5 _+1.8 _+1.5 __ +1.6 _ +1.2 _ +0.7 __ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 Scotty Lightning _______________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 Tom ___________________________ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.5 __ +1.6 _ +0.8 _ +0.5 __ +1.1 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 hudsonvalley21 ________________ +1.3 _ +1.8 _ +2.1 __ +2.1 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 __ +2.1 _ +2.2 _ +0.9 wxdude64 _____________________ +1.1 _ +2.1 _ +2.5 __ +1.9 _ +0.7 _ +0.7 __ +1.2 _ +1.6 _ +2.7 ___ Normal ______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _______________________ -0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _ -0.3 _ +1.7 __ +1.5 _ +0.1 _ +0.8 ___________________ Persistence _____________________+0.6 _ +1.2 _ +1.6 __ +3.6 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 __ +0.8 _ +2.2 _ +1.0 ============= Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded. Normal is lower than all forecasts for all locations except DCA and ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 18 Author Share Posted July 18 Report on anomalies and projections ... __________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA ___ (anom 1-17) __________ +1.1 _ +1.9 _+2.8 __+2.3 _+3.4 _+0.4 __+0.7 _+1.9 _+3.4 ___ (anom 1-24) __________+0.8 _ +1.0 _+1.9 __+1.7 _+3.1 _ +1.1 ___+0.3 _+1.0 _+1.4 ___ (final anom 1-31) _____ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 __+2.1 _+3.4 _+1.2 ___ 0.0 _+1.4 _+0.8 seasonal max to date _____ 99 __ 99 _ 102 ___ 95 __100 __ 101 ___ 100 _ 118 __ 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 20 Author Share Posted July 20 Final scoring for July 2025 Scores are based on final end of month anomalies as shown below. These scores were generally quite high and it's probably the highest average score for the group. _____________________________+1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 _____+2.1 _+3.4 _+1.2 _______ 0.0 _+1.4 _+0.8 FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e_ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTAL Roger Smith _____________94 _ 90 _ 88 __272 _ 82 _ 72 _ 84 __238 _ 510 _ 94 _ 98 _ 98 __290 ___800 ___ Consensus __________ 98 _ 96 _ 92 __286 _ 90 _ 56 _ 90 __236 _ 522 _ 70 _100_ 96 __266 ___788 Tom _____________________98 _ 88 _ 92 __278 _ 90 _ 48 _ 86 __224 _ 502 _ 78 _100 _100__278 ___780 so_whats_happening ___ 98 _ 92 _ 96 __286 _ 94 _ 48 _ 84 __226 _ 512 _ 96 _ 90 _ 76 __262 ___774 DonSutherland1 _________98 _ 90 _ 92 __280 _ 88 _ 62 _ 86 __236 _ 516 _ 94 _ 96 _ 68 __258 ___774 Scotty Lightning ________ 98 _ 90 _ 82 __270 _ 78 _ 62 _ 84 __224 _ 494 _ 80 _ 88 _ 96 __264 ___758 hudsonvalley21 _________ 98 _ 96 _ 96 __290 _100_ 44 _ 84 __228 _ 518 _ 58 _ 84 _ 98 __240 ___758 RJay ____________________ 78 _ 90 _ 88 __256 _ 92 _ 72 _ 84 __248 _ 504 _ 60 _ 88 _ 94 __242 ___746 wxdude64 ______________ 94 _ 98 _ 88 __280 _ 96 _ 46 _ 90 __232 _ 512 _ 76 _ 96 _ 62 __234 ___746 wxallannj ________________84 _ 94 _ 88 __266 _ 98 _ 66 _ 74 __238 _ 504 _ 68 _ 76 _ 80 __224 ___728 StormchaserChuck1 _____90 _ 98 _100__288 _ 88 _ 56 _ 98 __242 _ 530 _ 60 _ 82 _ 52 __194 ___724 RodneyS ________________ 68 _ 68 _ 78 __214 _ 66 _ 26 _ 90 __ 182 _ 396 _ 70 _ 74 _100 __244 ___640 ___ Normal ______________ 72 _ 60 _ 62 __194 _ 58 _ 32 _ 76 __ 166 _ 360 _100 _ 72 _ 84 __ 256 ___616 ___________________ Persistence ______________84 _ 84 _ 94 __ 262 _ 70 _ 66 _ 90 __226 _ 488 _ 84 _ 84 _ 96__264 ___752 ============= Extreme forecasts ATL _ RJay and Roger Smith tied wins for highest forecast DEN _ so_whats_happening and Normal win for lowest forecasts all others were close to consensus and did not qualify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 25 Author Share Posted July 25 === ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-July 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west __ TOTALS Tom __________________ 499 _526 _566 __1591 __454 _476 _472__1402 _2993 __524 _516 _490__1530___4523 ___ Consensus ______ 479 _516 _536 __1531__ 444 _530 _462__1436 _2967 __455 _510_556__1521 ___4488 hudsonvalley21 ______ 465 _530 _578 __1573 __402 _506 _471__ 1379 __2952 __460 _486 _546__1492 ___4444 so_whats_happening __513 _540 _504 __1557 __432 _538 _433__1403__2960 __444 _430 _534__1408 ___4368 RJay _________________ 444 _535 _ 551__1530 __484 _558 _454__1496 _ 3026__393 _407 _457__1257___ 4283 Scotty Lightning ______520 _518 _472 __1510 __357 _416 _476 __1249 _ 2759 __ 427 _558 _536 __1521 ___4280 wxallannj _____________ 415 _462 _498 __1375 __444 _464 _438__1346 _2721 __484 _484 _517 __1485 ___4206 DonSutherland1 ______ 411 _ 452 _496 __1359 __430 _484 _420__1334 _2693 __497 _464 _540__1501 ___4194 wxdude64 ____________434 _468 _478 __1380 __362_ 460 _420__1242 _2622__ 463 _486 _502__1451 ___4073 StormchaserChuck ___479 _492 _508 __1479 __332 _522 _ 377__1231 _ 2710 __ 439 _454 _445__1338___4048 Roger Smith __________420 _456 _474 __1350 __442 _480 _416__1338 _2688 __338 _444 _519__ 1301 ___3989 RodneyS _____________ 434 _446 _492 __1372 __322 _378 _414__ 1114 _ 2486 __387 _448 _634__1469 ___3955 ___ Normal ____________400 _438 _446 __1284 __328 _276 _263__ 867__2151__468 _442 _524__ 1434 ___3585 BKViking (6/7) _______ 300 _373 _393 __1066 __378 _446 _356__1180 _ 2246 __398 _396 _419__1213 ___ 3459 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __ 4035 maxim (2/7) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __3889 Persistence ___________284 _378 _500 __1162 ___208 _334 _386 __728 _1890__308 _366 _450 __1124 ____3214 ____________________________ ________________________________ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 - 5 tied for best score _______________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2^ __1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 2 ___ 1^___ 1 ____2 __ Mar,Jun ___ Consensus _______ 1 *__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 1 ___0 ___0 hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 1^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2^__ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 ____0 RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2^__ 1^__ 1^ __ 3 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 1^ ___0 ____0 Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__0 __0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 3 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___ 1 ____0 wxallannj _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0____0 Don Sutherland 1 _______1 *__ 1^__ 1*____0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 wxdude64 ______________1 __ 2^__ 1*___ 2 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____1 _ Jan StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____ 2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 1^___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr Roger Smith ____________ 1^ __ 2^__1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___2^__ 2^^__ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___1 ____2 _ Feb,Jul RodneyS _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 _____1 _ May BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*__ 0 ___0 ____0 ___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 ____0 ============================== Extreme forecasts So far, 33 of 63 ... 17 for warmest and 16 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1 Forecaster ______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S ________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 __ 6-2 ___ 5.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0 __5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0.0 Roger Smith _____________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1 *-0__6-2 ___ 5.0 - 2.0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_0-0 __4-1 ___ 3.5 - 0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0 ___ Normal _______________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __ 4-2 ____4.0 - 2.0 maxim ____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0 Tom ______________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.5 - 0.0 RJay ______________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0__3-0 ___ 1.5-0.0 so_whats_happening ____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __ 3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland __________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 __2-0 ____1.33-0.0 wxdude64 ________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __2-0 ____ 1.33-0.0 BKViking _________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 wxallannj _________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 ========================================================= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 August DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.5 1.5 0.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted Tuesday at 12:02 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:02 AM August DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.3 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted Wednesday at 10:26 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:26 PM August DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.2 2.0 2.8 2.8 0.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted yesterday at 12:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:54 PM August DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 1.6 2.1 2.2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted yesterday at 01:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:56 PM DCA: +0.6 NYC: +0.5 BOS: +0.4 ORD: +0.2 ATL: +0.9 IAH: +1.1 DEN: +1.2 PHX: +1.3 SEA: +1.4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted 21 hours ago Author Share Posted 21 hours ago +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 _ +3.3 _ +2.5 _ +3.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago DCA: +1.2 NYC: +1.6 BOS: +1.8 ORD: +1.1 ATL: +0.6 IAH: +0.4 DEN: +0.9 PHX: +2.1 SEA: +1.9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago August DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -1.4 0.3 -0.6 0.9 -1.5 0.1 1.8 1.5 1.1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago August DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 2.0 2.3 2.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now