2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not yet. It’ll be a few days before it extends across much of the MDR. 

So the lemon could burst

over for lemon

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

So the lemon could burst

over for lemon

Not necessarily—I don’t have time to illustrate it but the wave looks like it is further south and likely to get caught up in the monsoon trough. That increases the odds of development because it likely puts more distance between the wave and the TUTT as it moves westward and tries to develop. But there’s a lot to sort out still. 
 

[BarryStantonGBP]

48 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not necessarily—I don’t have time to illustrate it but the wave looks like it is further south and likely to get caught up in the monsoon trough. That increases the odds of development because it likely puts more distance between the wave and the TUTT as it moves westward and tries to develop. But there’s a lot to sort out still. 
 

One model run had it split at the end of the tutt

 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Gfs develops a low

[BarryStantonGBP]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs develops a low

all I see is the lemon

[BarryStantonGBP]

what's this

[MorristownWx]

5 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

kiko chan 

also we may get another storm not just gabsy wabsy 

 

 

Ah matey yaya shark google Nvidia. We got a wave at goal goal 

[Cholorob]

Ah matey yaya shark google Nvidia. We got a wave at goal goal 

lol. I see what you did there.


.

[BarryStantonGBP]

40 minutes ago, MorristownWx said:

Ah matey yaya shark google Nvidia. We got a wave at goal goal 

innit lad just wait till gabby shits out a baby named humberto in the caribbean innit

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

humburrito coming soon

 

[GaWx]

There’s an unusually large disagreement between GEFS and EPS regarding the MJO as they almost couldn’t be further apart!

1. GEFS heads for less threatening MC/W Pac (at low amp) pretty quickly and is on phase 6/7 border on 9/15 (supported by CMC):

2. Euro ens stuck mainly in phase 2, the most dangerous phase for Conus H hits in JAS (supported by JMA):

 

I may be forgetting but I can’t recall ever seeing this degree of disagreement between these two! I don’t have a good feel for which will verify more closely but of course it could end up between the two.

[BarryStantonGBP]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

There’s an unusually large disagreement between GEFS and EPS regarding the MJO as they almost couldn’t be further apart!

1. GEFS heads for less threatening MC/W Pac (at low amp) pretty quickly and is on phase 6/7 border on 9/15 (supported by CMC):

2. Euro ens stuck mainly in phase 2, the most dangerous phase for Conus H hits in JAS (supported by JMA):

 

I may be forgetting but I can’t recall ever seeing this degree of disagreement between these two! I don’t have a good feel for which will verify more closely but of course it could end up between the two.

Gfs is a meme

go with euro

[BarryStantonGBP]