BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 08:38 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 08:38 PM 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not yet. It’ll be a few days before it extends across much of the MDR. So the lemon could burst over for lemon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Sunday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:43 PM 1 minute ago, BarryStantonGBP said: So the lemon could burst over for lemon Not necessarily—I don’t have time to illustrate it but the wave looks like it is further south and likely to get caught up in the monsoon trough. That increases the odds of development because it likely puts more distance between the wave and the TUTT as it moves westward and tries to develop. But there’s a lot to sort out still. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 09:32 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 09:32 PM 48 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not necessarily—I don’t have time to illustrate it but the wave looks like it is further south and likely to get caught up in the monsoon trough. That increases the odds of development because it likely puts more distance between the wave and the TUTT as it moves westward and tries to develop. But there’s a lot to sort out still. One model run had it split at the end of the tutt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 09:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:58 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 10:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:27 PM Gfs develops a low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 11:10 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 11:10 PM 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs develops a low all I see is the lemon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 11:15 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 11:15 PM what's this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MorristownWx Posted Monday at 12:24 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:24 AM 5 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: kiko chan also we may get another storm not just gabsy wabsy Ah matey yaya shark google Nvidia. We got a wave at goal goal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cholorob Posted Monday at 12:54 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:54 AM Ah matey yaya shark google Nvidia. We got a wave at goal goal lol. I see what you did there.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Monday at 01:05 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:05 AM 40 minutes ago, MorristownWx said: Ah matey yaya shark google Nvidia. We got a wave at goal goal innit lad just wait till gabby shits out a baby named humberto in the caribbean innit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Monday at 01:48 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:48 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Monday at 03:59 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 03:59 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Monday at 06:15 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 06:15 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Monday at 08:00 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 08:00 PM humburrito coming soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 08:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:13 PM There’s an unusually large disagreement between GEFS and EPS regarding the MJO as they almost couldn’t be further apart! 1. GEFS heads for less threatening MC/W Pac (at low amp) pretty quickly and is on phase 6/7 border on 9/15 (supported by CMC): 2. Euro ens stuck mainly in phase 2, the most dangerous phase for Conus H hits in JAS (supported by JMA): I may be forgetting but I can’t recall ever seeing this degree of disagreement between these two! I don’t have a good feel for which will verify more closely but of course it could end up between the two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Monday at 08:22 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 08:22 PM 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: There’s an unusually large disagreement between GEFS and EPS regarding the MJO as they almost couldn’t be further apart! 1. GEFS heads for less threatening MC/W Pac (at low amp) pretty quickly and is on phase 6/7 border on 9/15 (supported by CMC): 2. Euro ens stuck mainly in phase 2, the most dangerous phase for Conus H hits in JAS (supported by JMA): I may be forgetting but I can’t recall ever seeing this degree of disagreement between these two! I don’t have a good feel for which will verify more closely but of course it could end up between the two. Gfs is a meme go with euro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Monday at 09:11 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 09:11 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Monday at 11:03 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:03 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 11:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:59 PM Might be a little later, but it's coming. Nothing has changed my thought that the second half of September (most likely after 9/20) through mid-October is active with TC genesis favorability gradually translating west in line with climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 17 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Gfs is a meme go with euro Wow, what a massive fold by GEFS to EPS in today’s MJO forecast! Whereas the EPS is similar to yesterday’s idea of not going to the right side (MC), GEFS abandoned the typical counterclockwise path that it had yesterday through MC and then to 6/7. Today, it remains in 2 through 9/11 and then crawls “backwards” up to 1 followed by 8 as of 9/16 (all mainly inside the circle, i.e., low amp). The EPS is very similar: Today’s (9/2) GEFS prog: Compare today’s GEFS to yesterday’s (9/1) GEFS prog: huge change! Thus, 9/2 EPS, which is very similar to 9/1 EPS, is very similar to 9/2 GEFS as it also ends up in low amp 8: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 10 hours ago Author Share Posted 10 hours ago 11 minutes ago, GaWx said: Wow, what a massive fold by GEFS to EPS in today’s MJO forecast! Whereas the EPS is similar to yesterday’s idea of not going to the right side (MC), GEFS abandoned the typical counterclockwise path that it had yesterday through MC and then to 6/7. Today, it remains in 2 through 9/11 and then crawls “backwards” up to 1 followed by 8 as of 9/16 (all mainly inside the circle, i.e., low amp). The EPS is very similar: Today’s (9/2) GEFS prog: Compare today’s GEFS to yesterday’s (9/1) GEFS prog: huge change! Thus, 9/2 EPS, which is very similar to 9/1 EPS, is very similar to 9/2 GEFS: no wonder models had a wcar/gulf threat it'll go on and off for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 4 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: no wonder models had a wcar/gulf threat it'll go on and off for now The 12Z EPS has a notable signal for a TC formation (~25%) in the S Gulf with them moving mainly N to WNW and then hitting or threatening to hit from NE MX through TX/LA. But this could be mainly gone on the 0Z for all we know since this run looks much different vs earlier runs and its way out in the unreliable late week 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago @BarryStantonGBPsignal for Gulf activity midmonth is there. We’ll see is all I can say now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago 19 minutes ago, GaWx said: @BarryStantonGBPsignal for Gulf activity midmonth is there. We’ll see is all I can say now. some of the ensembles have been getting quite low in terms of pressure for "humberto" concerning, how did Milton Keynes form again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 1 minute ago Author Share Posted 1 minute ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted just now Author Share Posted just now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now