BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 08:38 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 08:38 PM 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not yet. It’ll be a few days before it extends across much of the MDR. So the lemon could burst over for lemon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Sunday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:43 PM 1 minute ago, BarryStantonGBP said: So the lemon could burst over for lemon Not necessarily—I don’t have time to illustrate it but the wave looks like it is further south and likely to get caught up in the monsoon trough. That increases the odds of development because it likely puts more distance between the wave and the TUTT as it moves westward and tries to develop. But there’s a lot to sort out still. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 09:32 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 09:32 PM 48 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not necessarily—I don’t have time to illustrate it but the wave looks like it is further south and likely to get caught up in the monsoon trough. That increases the odds of development because it likely puts more distance between the wave and the TUTT as it moves westward and tries to develop. But there’s a lot to sort out still. One model run had it split at the end of the tutt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 09:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:58 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 10:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:27 PM Gfs develops a low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 11:10 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 11:10 PM 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs develops a low all I see is the lemon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 11:15 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 11:15 PM what's this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MorristownWx Posted yesterday at 12:24 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:24 AM 5 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: kiko chan also we may get another storm not just gabsy wabsy Ah matey yaya shark google Nvidia. We got a wave at goal goal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cholorob Posted yesterday at 12:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:54 AM Ah matey yaya shark google Nvidia. We got a wave at goal goal lol. I see what you did there.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 01:05 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:05 AM 40 minutes ago, MorristownWx said: Ah matey yaya shark google Nvidia. We got a wave at goal goal innit lad just wait till gabby shits out a baby named humberto in the caribbean innit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 01:48 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:48 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 03:59 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:59 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 06:15 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 06:15 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 08:00 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 08:00 PM humburrito coming soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago There’s an unusually large disagreement between GEFS and EPS regarding the MJO as they almost couldn’t be further apart! 1. GEFS heads for less threatening MC/W Pac (at low amp) pretty quickly and is on phase 6/7 border on 9/15 (supported by CMC): 2. Euro ens stuck mainly in phase 2, the most dangerous phase for Conus H hits in JAS (supported by JMA): I may be forgetting but I can’t recall ever seeing this degree of disagreement between these two! I don’t have a good feel for which will verify more closely but of course it could end up between the two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 23 hours ago Author Share Posted 23 hours ago 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: There’s an unusually large disagreement between GEFS and EPS regarding the MJO as they almost couldn’t be further apart! 1. GEFS heads for less threatening MC/W Pac (at low amp) pretty quickly and is on phase 6/7 border on 9/15 (supported by CMC): 2. Euro ens stuck mainly in phase 2, the most dangerous phase for Conus H hits in JAS (supported by JMA): I may be forgetting but I can’t recall ever seeing this degree of disagreement between these two! I don’t have a good feel for which will verify more closely but of course it could end up between the two. Gfs is a meme go with euro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 21 hours ago Author Share Posted 21 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Might be a little later, but it's coming. Nothing has changed my thought that the second half of September (most likely after 9/20) through mid-October is active with TC genesis favorability gradually translating west in line with climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 18 hours ago Author Share Posted 18 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 18 hours ago Author Share Posted 18 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 17 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Gfs is a meme go with euro Wow, what a massive fold by GEFS to EPS in today’s MJO forecast! Whereas the EPS is similar to yesterday’s idea of not going to the right side (MC), GEFS abandoned the typical counterclockwise path that it had yesterday through MC and then to 6/7. Today, it remains in 2 through 9/11 and then crawls “backwards” up to 1 followed by 8 as of 9/16 (all mainly inside the circle, i.e., low amp). The EPS is very similar: Today’s (9/2) GEFS prog: Compare today’s GEFS to yesterday’s (9/1) GEFS prog: huge change! Thus, 9/2 EPS, which is very similar to 9/1 EPS, is very similar to 9/2 GEFS as it also ends up in low amp 8: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 11 minutes ago, GaWx said: Wow, what a massive fold by GEFS to EPS in today’s MJO forecast! Whereas the EPS is similar to yesterday’s idea of not going to the right side (MC), GEFS abandoned the typical counterclockwise path that it had yesterday through MC and then to 6/7. Today, it remains in 2 through 9/11 and then crawls “backwards” up to 1 followed by 8 as of 9/16 (all mainly inside the circle, i.e., low amp). The EPS is very similar: Today’s (9/2) GEFS prog: Compare today’s GEFS to yesterday’s (9/1) GEFS prog: huge change! Thus, 9/2 EPS, which is very similar to 9/1 EPS, is very similar to 9/2 GEFS: no wonder models had a wcar/gulf threat it'll go on and off for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: no wonder models had a wcar/gulf threat it'll go on and off for now The 12Z EPS has a notable signal for a TC formation (~25%) in the S Gulf with them moving mainly N to WNW and then hitting or threatening to hit from NE MX through TX/LA. But this could be mainly gone on the 0Z for all we know since this run looks much different vs earlier runs and its way out in the unreliable late week 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted just now Author Share Posted just now 1 hour ago, GaWx said: The 12Z EPS has a notable signal for a TC formation (~25%) in the S Gulf with them moving mainly N to WNW and then hitting or threatening to hit from NE MX through TX/LA. But this could be mainly gone on the 0Z for all we know since this run looks much different vs earlier runs and its way out in the unreliable late week 2. thoughts on these new signals lad Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16) #821 by LAF92 » Tue Sep 02, 2025 1:55 pm Stratton23 wrote:Seeint a little more of a signal on the GEFS/ EPS for some development in the western caribbean/ southern gulf in the 10-12 day range, timing matches up with the MJO moving into the atlantic basin, worth watching, if we get any impactful storms this season, its most certainly coming from the western caribbean/ CAG The 12z EPS is the most active I’ve seen all year for the gulf Stratton23 Category 5 Posts: 2684 Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:59 pm Location: Katy, Tx Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16) #822 by Stratton23 » Tue Sep 02, 2025 1:57 pm LarryWx yep lets see if the signal sticks on future runs, but even that far out it definitely is worth paying some attention too 3 likes Top lsuhurricane Category 1Posts: 266 Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:53 pm Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16) #823 by lsuhurricane » Tue Sep 02, 2025 2:02 pm Easily the most action I've seen from any model suite for the Gulf this season. 2 likes Top IcyTundra Category 5Posts: 1222 Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm Location: Dickinson, Texas Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16) #824 by IcyTundra » Tue Sep 02, 2025 2:27 pm lsuhurricane wrote:Easily the most action I've seen from any model suite for the Gulf this season. https://i.ibb.co/XrNNLfcF/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Caribbean-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-2.gif More bullish than the GEFS but it is notable that both of the major ensemble suites are showing an elevated chance of development in the WCAR/GOM in that 10-14 day range. The Gulf and WCAR have seen zero activity this season so it would make sense for something to finally develop there at some point this season. 1 likes Top jlauderdal S2K SupporterPosts: 7211 Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am Location: NE Fort Lauderdale Contact: Re: RE: Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16) #825 by jlauderdal » Tue Sep 02, 2025 2:34 pm LAF92 wrote: Stratton23 wrote:Seeint a little more of a signal on the GEFS/ EPS for some development in the western caribbean/ southern gulf in the 10-12 day range, timing matches up with the MJO moving into the atlantic basin, worth watching, if we get any impactful storms this season, its most certainly coming from the western caribbean/ CAG The 12z EPS is the most active I’ve seen all year for the gulf Plenty of Gulf energy that needs to be transferred. Seems like a matter of time. Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk 1 likes https://bit.ly/ambientweatherhttps://bit.ly/wxunderground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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