BarryStantonGBP Posted August 31 Author Share Posted August 31 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not yet. It’ll be a few days before it extends across much of the MDR. So the lemon could burst over for lemon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 1 minute ago, BarryStantonGBP said: So the lemon could burst over for lemon Not necessarily—I don’t have time to illustrate it but the wave looks like it is further south and likely to get caught up in the monsoon trough. That increases the odds of development because it likely puts more distance between the wave and the TUTT as it moves westward and tries to develop. But there’s a lot to sort out still. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted August 31 Author Share Posted August 31 48 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not necessarily—I don’t have time to illustrate it but the wave looks like it is further south and likely to get caught up in the monsoon trough. That increases the odds of development because it likely puts more distance between the wave and the TUTT as it moves westward and tries to develop. But there’s a lot to sort out still. One model run had it split at the end of the tutt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 Gfs develops a low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted August 31 Author Share Posted August 31 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs develops a low all I see is the lemon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted August 31 Author Share Posted August 31 what's this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MorristownWx Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 5 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: kiko chan also we may get another storm not just gabsy wabsy Ah matey yaya shark google Nvidia. We got a wave at goal goal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cholorob Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 Ah matey yaya shark google Nvidia. We got a wave at goal goal lol. I see what you did there.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted September 1 Author Share Posted September 1 40 minutes ago, MorristownWx said: Ah matey yaya shark google Nvidia. We got a wave at goal goal innit lad just wait till gabby shits out a baby named humberto in the caribbean innit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted September 1 Author Share Posted September 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted September 1 Author Share Posted September 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted September 1 Author Share Posted September 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted September 1 Author Share Posted September 1 humburrito coming soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 There’s an unusually large disagreement between GEFS and EPS regarding the MJO as they almost couldn’t be further apart! 1. GEFS heads for less threatening MC/W Pac (at low amp) pretty quickly and is on phase 6/7 border on 9/15 (supported by CMC): 2. Euro ens stuck mainly in phase 2, the most dangerous phase for Conus H hits in JAS (supported by JMA): I may be forgetting but I can’t recall ever seeing this degree of disagreement between these two! I don’t have a good feel for which will verify more closely but of course it could end up between the two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted September 1 Author Share Posted September 1 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: There’s an unusually large disagreement between GEFS and EPS regarding the MJO as they almost couldn’t be further apart! 1. GEFS heads for less threatening MC/W Pac (at low amp) pretty quickly and is on phase 6/7 border on 9/15 (supported by CMC): 2. Euro ens stuck mainly in phase 2, the most dangerous phase for Conus H hits in JAS (supported by JMA): I may be forgetting but I can’t recall ever seeing this degree of disagreement between these two! I don’t have a good feel for which will verify more closely but of course it could end up between the two. Gfs is a meme go with euro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted September 1 Author Share Posted September 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted September 1 Author Share Posted September 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 Might be a little later, but it's coming. Nothing has changed my thought that the second half of September (most likely after 9/20) through mid-October is active with TC genesis favorability gradually translating west in line with climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 17 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Gfs is a meme go with euro Wow, what a massive fold by GEFS to EPS in today’s MJO forecast! Whereas the EPS is similar to yesterday’s idea of not going to the right side (MC), GEFS abandoned the typical counterclockwise path that it had yesterday through MC and then to 6/7. Today, it remains in 2 through 9/11 and then crawls “backwards” up to 1 followed by 8 as of 9/16 (all mainly inside the circle, i.e., low amp). The EPS is very similar: Today’s (9/2) GEFS prog: Compare today’s GEFS to yesterday’s (9/1) GEFS prog: huge change! Thus, 9/2 EPS, which is very similar to 9/1 EPS, is very similar to 9/2 GEFS as it also ends up in low amp 8: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 11 minutes ago, GaWx said: Wow, what a massive fold by GEFS to EPS in today’s MJO forecast! Whereas the EPS is similar to yesterday’s idea of not going to the right side (MC), GEFS abandoned the typical counterclockwise path that it had yesterday through MC and then to 6/7. Today, it remains in 2 through 9/11 and then crawls “backwards” up to 1 followed by 8 as of 9/16 (all mainly inside the circle, i.e., low amp). The EPS is very similar: Today’s (9/2) GEFS prog: Compare today’s GEFS to yesterday’s (9/1) GEFS prog: huge change! Thus, 9/2 EPS, which is very similar to 9/1 EPS, is very similar to 9/2 GEFS: no wonder models had a wcar/gulf threat it'll go on and off for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 4 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: no wonder models had a wcar/gulf threat it'll go on and off for now The 12Z EPS has a notable signal for a TC formation (~25%) in the S Gulf with them moving mainly N to WNW and then hitting or threatening to hit from NE MX through TX/LA. But this could be mainly gone on the 0Z for all we know since this run looks much different vs earlier runs and its way out in the unreliable late week 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 @BarryStantonGBPsignal for Gulf activity midmonth is there. We’ll see is all I can say now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 19 minutes ago, GaWx said: @BarryStantonGBPsignal for Gulf activity midmonth is there. We’ll see is all I can say now. some of the ensembles have been getting quite low in terms of pressure for "humberto" concerning, how did Milton Keynes form again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted September 3 Author Share Posted September 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted September 3 Author Share Posted September 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 Erin left a heck of a cold wake across the nw Atlantic, while the ENSO regions have cooled dramatically past two weeks. How will this influence Atlantic hurricane activity this month, and what are the two areas I am watching besides the E. Atl system? I go into depth on the large-scale factors for the next few weeks including Sep analogs, while looking at the "elephant in the room" that is being largely ignored IMHO because most tropical enthusiasts are focusing on the East Atlantic system.https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/the-times-they-are-changin 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 EPS and GEFS both show notable upticks in activity beyond the 10th. As were in the peak of hurricane season that is not surprising. The good news is that at least through mid month, the eastern trough hangs on which continues to be a deterrent to any storm approaching from the east. I think the CAG seen on some GFS runs is overblown as it tends to do but with La Niña developing and a tendency for shear to decrease this time of year I’d expect to start looking to the carribean and southern gulf. SSTs continue to decrease off the east coast from NC northward and I fished Friday out of Morehead and can confirm how much it has cooled. Water was 76-77 until about 35 miles out and warmed to 82 in the stream. Contrast to when I fished last week of July in same location and the temp never fell below 83 from the inlet to the stream and the stream was 87. That’s a huge difference in energy available of anything threatens NC-northward from a month ago. To me, this feels like the lid is starting to come off a bit in the Atlantic and mid month looks to be quite active 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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