2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[NorthHillsWx]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Being a near east-coaster and also considering last year’s devaststing killer season, especially in NC, I sincerely love your optimism and hope the current pattern holds. One hit already this season is more than enough. Besides it’s fortunately not easy for the EC to be hit compared to the Gulf. Getting two EC TS+ hits in one year isn’t too common…~1/3 of years since 1995.

 However, regarding EC hits from storms that weren’t home-brew:

-2022’s only hit wasn’t til 9/30 (Ian)

-2018’s only hit wasn’t til 9/14 (Florence)

-2016’s only hit other than TS Bonnie in May wasn't til 10/8 (Matthew)

-2012’s only hit other than TS Beryl in May wasn't til 10/29 (Sandy)

-2003’s only hit wasn’t til 9/18 (Isabel)

-1999’s only H hit wasn’t til 9/15-6 (Floyd)

-1989’s only hit wasn’t til 9/21-2 (Hugo)

-1985’s worst hit by far wasn't til 9/26-7 (Gloria)

-1950’s only hit wasn’t til 10/17 (King)

-1947 had a rare 3 EC hits and they were all 9/17+ and only one was home-brew

-1945 had one H hit and it wasn’t til 9/15

-1944’s worst H hit wasn’t til 9/14

-1941’s only hit wasn’t til 10/6

-1938’s only hit wasn’t til 9/21

-1928’s worst hit wasn’t til 9/16

-1898’s worst hit by far wasn’t til 10/2

 
 So, these 16 years’ EC hits weren’t til 9/14+ and 50% weren’t til 9/21+.

I am absolutely not disputing climo and most EC storms are in September, I am simply saying the current pattern is not conducive for EC landfalls unless something spins up from a stalled front. The trough is well entrenched and acts like a wall where it’s centered far enough east that anything coming from the MDR will be sent ots. Looking at the next two weeks this pattern largely remains intact. That brings us to the peak of the season and takes a good chunk of time out for something to hit. I’m not saying we won’t get a storm, but the current pattern strongly favors home brew and recurves. Given we’re in peak season, burning weeks here decreases the odds of a strikes by decreasing the amount of time available for one to happen, that is my only point. One would think the carribean and gulf would be in play especially with fronts rotting in the northern GOM but it’s been eerily quiet. We’ll see if our invest can change that. But for the next couple weeks I feel very confident the east coast will be safe from a MDR storm. I definitely would not rule out home brew too

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I am absolutely not disputing climo and most EC storms are in September, I am simply saying the current pattern is not conducive for EC landfalls unless something spins up from a stalled front. The trough is well entrenched and acts like a wall where it’s centered far enough east that anything coming from the MDR will be sent ots. Looking at the next two weeks this pattern largely remains intact. That brings us to the peak of the season and takes a good chunk of time out for something to hit. I’m not saying we won’t get a storm, but the current pattern strongly favors home brew and recurves. Given we’re in peak season, burning weeks here decreases the odds of a strikes by decreasing the amount of time available for one to happen, that is my only point. One would think the carribean and gulf would be in play especially with fronts rotting in the northern GOM but it’s been eerily quiet. We’ll see if our invest can change that. But for the next couple weeks I feel very confident the east coast will be safe from a MDR storm. I definitely would not rule out home brew too

 Everything you said makes sense. Right here in my normally highly vulnerable location along with very high water table due to an insane nearly 17” of rainfall month to date (without a TC causing any of it obviously), I’m quite pleased about the current pattern. Thus I feel about as safe as I’m ever going to feel in late August when sometimes I’m on pins and needles wondering if I’m going to luck out.

 The big question though is whether an autumn-like pattern in much of August in the E US overall means that same pattern will likely continue through at least most of Sept. or do these anomalous fallish patterns tend to change or even reverse? There may not be a large enough dataset to analyze this.

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I am absolutely not disputing climo and most EC storms are in September, I am simply saying the current pattern is not conducive for EC landfalls unless something spins up from a stalled front. The trough is well entrenched and acts like a wall where it’s centered far enough east that anything coming from the MDR will be sent ots. Looking at the next two weeks this pattern largely remains intact. That brings us to the peak of the season and takes a good chunk of time out for something to hit. I’m not saying we won’t get a storm, but the current pattern strongly favors home brew and recurves. Given we’re in peak season, burning weeks here decreases the odds of a strikes by decreasing the amount of time available for one to happen, that is my only point. One would think the carribean and gulf would be in play especially with fronts rotting in the northern GOM but it’s been eerily quiet. We’ll see if our invest can change that. But for the next couple weeks I feel very confident the east coast will be safe from a MDR storm. I definitely would not rule out home brew too

 

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Everything you said makes sense. Right here in my normally highly vulnerable location along with very high water table due to an insane nearly 17” of rainfall month to date (without a TC causing any of it obviously), I’m quite pleased about the current pattern. Thus I feel about as safe as I’m ever going to feel in late August when sometimes I’m on pins and needles wondering if I’m going to luck out.

 The big question though is whether an autumn-like pattern in much of August in the E US overall means that same pattern will likely continue through at least most of Sept. or do these anomalous fallish patterns tend to change or even reverse? There may not be a large enough dataset to analyze this.

 

[Maxwell03]

 

5 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

QUOTE FROM CUCK2K

AHEM:

well he did say rarely 

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS and Euro kind of hinting at some home brew next week

[BarryStantonGBP]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS and Euro kind of hinting at some home brew next week

WHERE SHE AT

[GaWx]

 Opinions?

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/real-time-2025-atlantic-hurricane?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share

 Per Cycloneye of Storm 2K, WeatherTiger is suggesting:

Down to 147 today, will probably dip into the 130-135 range by 9/10 unless we unexpectedly generate some ACE before then. More importantly U.S. ACE is falling as well, odds of 3+ U.S. hurricane landfalls now less than 25%.

 

——————————

 Seasons with 3+ H hits on the US are considered quite active for the US. They include these over the last 30 seasons (current active era): 2024, 20, 17, 08, 05, 04, 1999, 98

 So, that’s 8 out of 30 or 27% with 3+ US H hits. Thus, he’s saying odds of 3+ have dropped to slightly lower than the normal chance of the active era. That seems to me like a reasonable drop considering the chance of the first prior to Sept 7th is low per models.

*Corrected

[BarryStantonGBP]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Opinions?

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/real-time-2025-atlantic-hurricane?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share

 Per Cycloneye of Storm 2K, WeatherTiger is suggesting:

Down to 147 today, will probably dip into the 130-135 range by 9/10 unless we unexpectedly generate some ACE before then. More importantly U.S. ACE is falling as well, odds of 3+ U.S. hurricane landfalls now less than 25%.

 

——————————

 Seasons with 3+ H hits on the US are considered quite active for the US. They include these over the last 30 seasons (current active era): 2024, 20, 17, 08, 05, 04, 1999, 98

 So, that’s 8 out of 30 or 27% with 3+ US H hits. Thus, he’s saying odds of 3+ have dropped to slightly lower than the normal chance of the active era. That seems to me like a reasonable drop considering the chance of the first prior to Sept 7th is low per models.

*Corrected

strong disagreement

per the cycling theory from 2023-25, there will likely be a Gulf landfall in mid-late September (watch out for either the 16th or 25th September for an impact date), an OBX brush late September-early October, and a GA/SC landfall or brush in mid October

[BarryStantonGBP]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Opinions?

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/real-time-2025-atlantic-hurricane?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share

 Per Cycloneye of Storm 2K, WeatherTiger is suggesting:

Down to 147 today, will probably dip into the 130-135 range by 9/10 unless we unexpectedly generate some ACE before then. More importantly U.S. ACE is falling as well, odds of 3+ U.S. hurricane landfalls now less than 25%.

 

——————————

 Seasons with 3+ H hits on the US are considered quite active for the US. They include these over the last 30 seasons (current active era): 2024, 20, 17, 08, 05, 04, 1999, 98

 So, that’s 8 out of 30 or 27% with 3+ US H hits. Thus, he’s saying odds of 3+ have dropped to slightly lower than the normal chance of the active era. That seems to me like a reasonable drop considering the chance of the first prior to Sept 7th is low per models.

*Corrected

I asked someone over on twitter and this is their estimation for the remainder of the season

NS 19 | H 8 | MH 6 | ACE ≈ 190 units
Strongest: Erin - 160 kt Cat 5
Retirements: 2 (names redacted, but they told me the names)

 

Rush Rush is a good account to follow BTW

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

I asked someone over on twitter and this is their estimation

NS 19 | H 8 | MH 6 | ACE ≈ 190 units
Strongest: Erin - 160 kt Cat 5
Retirements: 2 (names redacted)

1. I don’t see anything near 190 ACE this season. My original prog as stated in the contest thread was for ~139. I see no reason at all to increase that. 

2. MH 6? That chance is tiny. I predicted 3 MH in the contest fwiw.

3. H 8 has a much better chance than MH 6 although it will be a challenge. Fwiw, I predicted 9 H in the contest, which is on life support right now.

4. Erin’s highest winds were 160 mph, not 160 knots. I’m assuming that’s a typo.

[BarryStantonGBP]

Just now, GaWx said:

1. I don’t see anything near 190 ACE this season. My original prog as stated in the contest thread was for ~139. I see no reason at all to increase that. 

2. MH 6? That chance is tiny. I predicted 3 MH in the contest fwiw.

3. H 8 has a much better chance than MH 6 although it will be a challenge. Fwiw, I predicted 9 H in the contest, which is on life support right now.

4. Erin’s highest winds were 160 mph, not 160 knots. I’m assuming that’s a typo.

Rush Rush disagrees with you BTW

He's a good account to follow on Twitter

and Lezak predicted 180

[BarryStantonGBP]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. I don’t see anything near 190 ACE this season. My original prog as stated in the contest thread was for ~139. I see no reason at all to increase that. 

2. MH 6? That chance is tiny. I predicted 3 MH in the contest fwiw.

3. H 8 has a much better chance than MH 6 although it will be a challenge. Fwiw, I predicted 9 H in the contest, which is on life support right now.

4. Erin’s highest winds were 160 mph, not 160 knots. I’m assuming that’s a typo.

What are you predicting?

Appreciate the numbers, but I’m not with you on ACE/MH. A long-track Cat 4 typically racks up ~24 ACE by itself. With Erin already in the bank and at least 3–4 major windows left (Gulf mid or late-Sep, SE coast mid-Oct, MDR fish late Oct, Panhandle/Bermuda late Oct), ~190 ACE and ~6 MH are reasonable this year. LRC timing is clean. Hurricanes ~8 is still plausible. And yep: Erin peaked at 160 mph (not knots).

[Drummer]

If we could get something that dumps a boatload of rain in the CLT area around the weekend of 10/4, that would be perfect.  

 

I have a 50k ultramarathon on what I have now learned is a really difficult course that I'd rather not have to attempt.

[BarryStantonGBP]

Just now, Drummer said:

If we could get something that dumps a boatload of rain in the CLT area around the weekend of 10/4, that would be perfect.  

 

I have a 50k ultramarathon on what I have now learned is a really difficult course that I'd rather not have to attempt.

Be careful what you wish for, innit.
The only setup that could drown Chazza that weekend is a Gulf storm that shoots up the M85 (I meant the I-85), and the LRC + guidance put that corridor a full week later (mid-October). One storm I have is an Azores fish, the one following that isn't on deck till 10-12 Oct, and anything Caribbean-born needs time to clear Cuba. Translation: odds of a soggy CLT soakdown and a trampoline on 4 Oct are near zero. Looks like you’ll have to earn that 50 K the old-fashioned way: suffering upright, not floating.

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

What are you predicting?

Appreciate the numbers, but I’m not with you on ACE/MH. A long-track Cat 4 typically racks up ~24 ACE by itself. With Erin already in the bank and at least 3–4 major windows left (Gulf mid or late-Sep, SE coast mid-Oct, MDR fish late Oct, Panhandle/Bermuda late Oct), ~190 ACE and ~6 MH are reasonable this year. LRC timing is clean. Hurricanes ~8 is still plausible. And yep: Erin peaked at 160 mph (not knots).

In the contest post (that you weenied lmao), I predicted 14/9/3 and 139 ACE. So, I expect another weenie here.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

In the contest post (that you weenied lmao), I predicted 14/9/3 and 139 ACE. So, I expect another weenie here.

139 ACE in a 9-year with a 9/16 Gulf major window and a mid-Oct SE echo? That’s peak weenie. I’m on 19/8/6, ~190 ACE... come at me outside Tesco's in Manny innit

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

There’s no way 190 ace is happening with a lull right during peak season. A strong backend is still likely based on increased vertical instability but it’s going to be hard to make up for lost time. Erin also cooled a large portion of the typical recurve track which will limit future storm intensity in that region.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Opinions?

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/real-time-2025-atlantic-hurricane?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share

 Per Cycloneye of Storm 2K, WeatherTiger is suggesting:

Down to 147 today, will probably dip into the 130-135 range by 9/10 unless we unexpectedly generate some ACE before then. More importantly U.S. ACE is falling as well, odds of 3+ U.S. hurricane landfalls now less than 25%.

 

——————————

 Seasons with 3+ H hits on the US are considered quite active for the US. They include these over the last 30 seasons (current active era): 2024, 20, 17, 08, 05, 04, 1999, 98

 So, that’s 8 out of 30 or 27% with 3+ US H hits. Thus, he’s saying odds of 3+ have dropped to slightly lower than the normal chance of the active era. That seems to me like a reasonable drop considering the chance of the first prior to Sept 7th is low per models.

*Corrected

I can see where the numbers come from, but I'm guessing that with an active back half of September that projection will change. I don't see sub 140 ACE, but I also don't think we're rocketing toward hyperactive ACE either. I'd probably lean around 150. Kind of agree on the 3+ H strikes, considering that I think this is an EC, not Gulf favored year. That in it of itself suggests fewer than 3 strikes. 

40 minutes ago, GaWx said:

In the contest post (that you weenied lmao), I predicted 14/9/3 and 139 ACE. So, I expect another weenie here.

With us being where we are and my peak season forecast at 10/6/3, I'm thinking we're probably around 15/7/4 to end the season. All I care about is my peak season forecast though.  

[GaWx]

 I just looked at other 12Z ops and there’s actually the same general idea of a LL circ forming just off Africa within 6 days from these 12Z models: Euro, CMC, Icon, JMA, and UKMET. The GFS is about the only major op that has virtually nothing. Hmmmm.
 

12Z UKMET for example has a TD from  right off of Africa moving WSW. When I first saw this on the UKMET, I figured it was likely going to end up as a ghost since I thought it was the only op with it. But then I saw the other models and am now wondering.

12Z UKMET:

EW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 17.6N  17.6W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 31.08.2025  132  17.6N  17.6W     1010            25
    1200UTC 31.08.2025  144  17.3N  19.7W     1010            24
    0000UTC 01.09.2025  156  17.2N  22.2W     1011            23
    1200UTC 01.09.2025  168  16.7N  25.6W     1012            25

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I just looked at other 12Z ops and there’s actually the same general idea of a LL circ forming just off Africa within 6 days from these 12Z models: Euro, CMC, Icon, JMA, and UKMET. The GFS is about the only major op that has virtually nothing. Hmmmm.
 

12Z UKMET for example has a TD from  right off of Africa moving WSW. When I first saw this on the UKMET, I figured it was likely going to end up as a ghost since I thought it was the only op with it. But then I saw the other models and am now wondering.

12Z UKMET:

EW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 17.6N  17.6W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 31.08.2025  132  17.6N  17.6W     1010            25
    1200UTC 31.08.2025  144  17.3N  19.7W     1010            24
    0000UTC 01.09.2025  156  17.2N  22.2W     1011            23
    1200UTC 01.09.2025  168  16.7N  25.6W     1012            25

 

All I know for a fact is that Gabrielle will likely go to a weaker storm

 

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There’s no way 190 ace is happening with a lull right during peak season. A strong backend is still likely based on increased vertical instability but it’s going to be hard to make up for lost time. Erin also cooled a large portion of the typical recurve track which will limit future storm intensity in that region.

A 10-day lull in early Sep (since the hurricanes have fucked off to Ibiza again) doesn’t tank ACE when the LRC and numerology show two more Cat 4 corridors still ahead (Gulf mid or late-Sep, SE coast/Atlantic Oct). Erin’s cold wake is a meme, plus the nonce made the SST configs even better anyways. Mixes out fast and doesn’t touch the main landfall lanes. If we get 4–5 backend majors, 190 ACE is totally in reach

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There’s no way 190 ace is happening with a lull right during peak season. A strong backend is still likely based on increased vertical instability but it’s going to be hard to make up for lost time. Erin also cooled a large portion of the typical recurve track which will limit future storm intensity in that region.

 

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I can see where the numbers come from, but I'm guessing that with an active back half of September that projection will change. I don't see sub 140 ACE, but I also don't think we're rocketing toward hyperactive ACE either. I'd probably lean around 150. Kind of agree on the 3+ H strikes, considering that I think this is an EC, not Gulf favored year. That in it of itself suggests fewer than 3 strikes. 

With us being where we are and my peak season forecast at 10/6/3, I'm thinking we're probably around 15/7/4 to end the season. All I care about is my peak season forecast though.  

@GaWx

 

Here are the majors (Cat ≥3) that me and someone on Twitter forecasted on DMs, taking into account the LRC and other theories:

Erin: 160 mph Cat 5 (over water; EC/Atlantic Canada effects)

Major 2: 145–150 mph Cat 4 (TX–LA landfall window ~Sep 16 OR Sep 25)

Major 3: 140–145 mph Cat 4 (GA–SC landfall window mid-Oct)

Major 4: 115–125 mph Cat 3 (Bermuda grazer/near-miss)

Major 5: 115–120 mph Cat 3 (FL Panhandle/Big Bend late Oct)

Major 6: 135–140 mph Cat 4 (open-ocean MDR major, recurves)