2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[NorthHillsWx]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Being a near east-coaster and also considering last year’s devaststing killer season, especially in NC, I sincerely love your optimism and hope the current pattern holds. One hit already this season is more than enough. Besides it’s fortunately not easy for the EC to be hit compared to the Gulf. Getting two EC TS+ hits in one year isn’t too common…~1/3 of years since 1995.

 However, regarding EC hits from storms that weren’t home-brew:

-2022’s only hit wasn’t til 9/30 (Ian)

-2018’s only hit wasn’t til 9/14 (Florence)

-2016’s only hit other than TS Bonnie in May wasn't til 10/8 (Matthew)

-2012’s only hit other than TS Beryl in May wasn't til 10/29 (Sandy)

-2003’s only hit wasn’t til 9/18 (Isabel)

-1999’s only H hit wasn’t til 9/15-6 (Floyd)

-1989’s only hit wasn’t til 9/21-2 (Hugo)

-1985’s worst hit by far wasn't til 9/26-7 (Gloria)

-1950’s only hit wasn’t til 10/17 (King)

-1947 had a rare 3 EC hits and they were all 9/17+ and only one was home-brew

-1945 had one H hit and it wasn’t til 9/15

-1944’s worst H hit wasn’t til 9/14

-1941’s only hit wasn’t til 10/6

-1938’s only hit wasn’t til 9/21

-1928’s worst hit wasn’t til 9/16

-1898’s worst hit by far wasn’t til 10/2

 
 So, these 16 years’ EC hits weren’t til 9/14+ and 50% weren’t til 9/21+.

I am absolutely not disputing climo and most EC storms are in September, I am simply saying the current pattern is not conducive for EC landfalls unless something spins up from a stalled front. The trough is well entrenched and acts like a wall where it’s centered far enough east that anything coming from the MDR will be sent ots. Looking at the next two weeks this pattern largely remains intact. That brings us to the peak of the season and takes a good chunk of time out for something to hit. I’m not saying we won’t get a storm, but the current pattern strongly favors home brew and recurves. Given we’re in peak season, burning weeks here decreases the odds of a strikes by decreasing the amount of time available for one to happen, that is my only point. One would think the carribean and gulf would be in play especially with fronts rotting in the northern GOM but it’s been eerily quiet. We’ll see if our invest can change that. But for the next couple weeks I feel very confident the east coast will be safe from a MDR storm. I definitely would not rule out home brew too

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I am absolutely not disputing climo and most EC storms are in September, I am simply saying the current pattern is not conducive for EC landfalls unless something spins up from a stalled front. The trough is well entrenched and acts like a wall where it’s centered far enough east that anything coming from the MDR will be sent ots. Looking at the next two weeks this pattern largely remains intact. That brings us to the peak of the season and takes a good chunk of time out for something to hit. I’m not saying we won’t get a storm, but the current pattern strongly favors home brew and recurves. Given we’re in peak season, burning weeks here decreases the odds of a strikes by decreasing the amount of time available for one to happen, that is my only point. One would think the carribean and gulf would be in play especially with fronts rotting in the northern GOM but it’s been eerily quiet. We’ll see if our invest can change that. But for the next couple weeks I feel very confident the east coast will be safe from a MDR storm. I definitely would not rule out home brew too

 Everything you said makes sense. Right here in my normally highly vulnerable location along with very high water table due to an insane nearly 17” of rainfall month to date (without a TC causing any of it obviously), I’m quite pleased about the current pattern. Thus I feel about as safe as I’m ever going to feel in late August when sometimes I’m on pins and needles wondering if I’m going to luck out.

 The big question though is whether an autumn-like pattern in much of August in the E US overall means that same pattern will likely continue through at least most of Sept. or do these anomalous fallish patterns tend to change or even reverse? There may not be a large enough dataset to analyze this.

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I am absolutely not disputing climo and most EC storms are in September, I am simply saying the current pattern is not conducive for EC landfalls unless something spins up from a stalled front. The trough is well entrenched and acts like a wall where it’s centered far enough east that anything coming from the MDR will be sent ots. Looking at the next two weeks this pattern largely remains intact. That brings us to the peak of the season and takes a good chunk of time out for something to hit. I’m not saying we won’t get a storm, but the current pattern strongly favors home brew and recurves. Given we’re in peak season, burning weeks here decreases the odds of a strikes by decreasing the amount of time available for one to happen, that is my only point. One would think the carribean and gulf would be in play especially with fronts rotting in the northern GOM but it’s been eerily quiet. We’ll see if our invest can change that. But for the next couple weeks I feel very confident the east coast will be safe from a MDR storm. I definitely would not rule out home brew too

 

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Everything you said makes sense. Right here in my normally highly vulnerable location along with very high water table due to an insane nearly 17” of rainfall month to date (without a TC causing any of it obviously), I’m quite pleased about the current pattern. Thus I feel about as safe as I’m ever going to feel in late August when sometimes I’m on pins and needles wondering if I’m going to luck out.

 The big question though is whether an autumn-like pattern in much of August in the E US overall means that same pattern will likely continue through at least most of Sept. or do these anomalous fallish patterns tend to change or even reverse? There may not be a large enough dataset to analyze this.

 

[Maxwell03]

 

5 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

QUOTE FROM CUCK2K

AHEM:

well he did say rarely 

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS and Euro kind of hinting at some home brew next week

[BarryStantonGBP]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS and Euro kind of hinting at some home brew next week

WHERE SHE AT

[GaWx]

 Opinions?

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/real-time-2025-atlantic-hurricane?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share

 Per Cycloneye of Storm 2K, WeatherTiger is suggesting:

Down to 147 today, will probably dip into the 130-135 range by 9/10 unless we unexpectedly generate some ACE before then. More importantly U.S. ACE is falling as well, odds of 3+ U.S. hurricane landfalls now less than 25%.

 

——————————

 Seasons with 3+ H hits on the US are considered quite active for the US. They include these over the last 30 seasons (current active era): 2024, 20, 17, 08, 05, 04, 1999, 98

 So, that’s 8 out of 30 or 27% with 3+ US H hits. Thus, he’s saying odds of 3+ have dropped to slightly lower than the normal chance of the active era. That seems to me like a reasonable drop considering the chance of the first prior to Sept 7th is low per models.

*Corrected