NorthHillsWx Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 20 hours ago, GaWx said: Being a near east-coaster and also considering last year’s devaststing killer season, especially in NC, I sincerely love your optimism and hope the current pattern holds. One hit already this season is more than enough. Besides it’s fortunately not easy for the EC to be hit compared to the Gulf. Getting two EC TS+ hits in one year isn’t too common…~1/3 of years since 1995. However, regarding EC hits from storms that weren’t home-brew: -2022’s only hit wasn’t til 9/30 (Ian) -2018’s only hit wasn’t til 9/14 (Florence) -2016’s only hit other than TS Bonnie in May wasn't til 10/8 (Matthew) -2012’s only hit other than TS Beryl in May wasn't til 10/29 (Sandy) -2003’s only hit wasn’t til 9/18 (Isabel) -1999’s only H hit wasn’t til 9/15-6 (Floyd) -1989’s only hit wasn’t til 9/21-2 (Hugo) -1985’s worst hit by far wasn't til 9/26-7 (Gloria) -1950’s only hit wasn’t til 10/17 (King) -1947 had a rare 3 EC hits and they were all 9/17+ and only one was home-brew -1945 had one H hit and it wasn’t til 9/15 -1944’s worst H hit wasn’t til 9/14 -1941’s only hit wasn’t til 10/6 -1938’s only hit wasn’t til 9/21 -1928’s worst hit wasn’t til 9/16 -1898’s worst hit by far wasn’t til 10/2 So, these 16 years’ EC hits weren’t til 9/14+ and 50% weren’t til 9/21+. I am absolutely not disputing climo and most EC storms are in September, I am simply saying the current pattern is not conducive for EC landfalls unless something spins up from a stalled front. The trough is well entrenched and acts like a wall where it’s centered far enough east that anything coming from the MDR will be sent ots. Looking at the next two weeks this pattern largely remains intact. That brings us to the peak of the season and takes a good chunk of time out for something to hit. I’m not saying we won’t get a storm, but the current pattern strongly favors home brew and recurves. Given we’re in peak season, burning weeks here decreases the odds of a strikes by decreasing the amount of time available for one to happen, that is my only point. One would think the carribean and gulf would be in play especially with fronts rotting in the northern GOM but it’s been eerily quiet. We’ll see if our invest can change that. But for the next couple weeks I feel very confident the east coast will be safe from a MDR storm. I definitely would not rule out home brew too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: I am absolutely not disputing climo and most EC storms are in September, I am simply saying the current pattern is not conducive for EC landfalls unless something spins up from a stalled front. The trough is well entrenched and acts like a wall where it’s centered far enough east that anything coming from the MDR will be sent ots. Looking at the next two weeks this pattern largely remains intact. That brings us to the peak of the season and takes a good chunk of time out for something to hit. I’m not saying we won’t get a storm, but the current pattern strongly favors home brew and recurves. Given we’re in peak season, burning weeks here decreases the odds of a strikes by decreasing the amount of time available for one to happen, that is my only point. One would think the carribean and gulf would be in play especially with fronts rotting in the northern GOM but it’s been eerily quiet. We’ll see if our invest can change that. But for the next couple weeks I feel very confident the east coast will be safe from a MDR storm. I definitely would not rule out home brew too Everything you said makes sense. Right here in my normally highly vulnerable location along with very high water table due to an insane nearly 17” of rainfall month to date (without a TC causing any of it obviously), I’m quite pleased about the current pattern. Thus I feel about as safe as I’m ever going to feel in late August when sometimes I’m on pins and needles wondering if I’m going to luck out. The big question though is whether an autumn-like pattern in much of August in the E US overall means that same pattern will likely continue through at least most of Sept. or do these anomalous fallish patterns tend to change or even reverse? There may not be a large enough dataset to analyze this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: I am absolutely not disputing climo and most EC storms are in September, I am simply saying the current pattern is not conducive for EC landfalls unless something spins up from a stalled front. The trough is well entrenched and acts like a wall where it’s centered far enough east that anything coming from the MDR will be sent ots. Looking at the next two weeks this pattern largely remains intact. That brings us to the peak of the season and takes a good chunk of time out for something to hit. I’m not saying we won’t get a storm, but the current pattern strongly favors home brew and recurves. Given we’re in peak season, burning weeks here decreases the odds of a strikes by decreasing the amount of time available for one to happen, that is my only point. One would think the carribean and gulf would be in play especially with fronts rotting in the northern GOM but it’s been eerily quiet. We’ll see if our invest can change that. But for the next couple weeks I feel very confident the east coast will be safe from a MDR storm. I definitely would not rule out home brew too 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: Everything you said makes sense. Right here in my normally highly vulnerable location along with very high water table due to an insane nearly 17” of rainfall month to date (without a TC causing any of it obviously), I’m quite pleased about the current pattern. Thus I feel about as safe as I’m ever going to feel in late August when sometimes I’m on pins and needles wondering if I’m going to luck out. The big question though is whether an autumn-like pattern in much of August in the E US overall means that same pattern will likely continue through at least most of Sept. or do these anomalous fallish patterns tend to change or even reverse? There may not be a large enough dataset to analyze this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: QUOTE FROM CUCK2K AHEM: well he did say rarely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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