2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[nvck]

6 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

So you’re saying you’re ignoring them because they’re not a boomer

Got it

 

and “permabull” = nobody cares. They usually end up being right.

 

Bearish posts = almost always ends up being wrong at some point and that’s why I will continue to predict a 2017 type season 

Bearish posts are always made by down casters who think emotionally and not realistically 

 

bearish posts always point out their povs by using broken models that usually turn out to be wrong anyway 

the bearish posts usually end up being from wishcasters who want a break from activity 

 

but let’s face it

 

that ain’t happening anytime soon 

 

so let me get this straight

 

if you’re not a boomer

your take = permabull

therefore = doesn’t count

 

got it

 

permabull = the guy who’s actually right

meanwhile “bearish” posts

always “models say”—then models flop

every. single. time.

 

it’s always the same

bearish = just wishcasters who want to binge netflix and not hear about storms for 3 months

never fails

they get one “stable pattern” in may june July even early or mid august, think it’s a break year

by August or september they’re radio silent

 

when’s the last time a bearish preseason post aged well 

ian and Fiona are chomping on popcorn as I speak 

seriously

 

and the whole “permabull” thing

just means you’re under 50 and notice the basin hasn’t had a real bust in like 10 years

but yeah, keep filtering out anyone who isn’t typing like a boomer

 

newsflash: ocean doesn’t care about your feelings

 

bearish = broken model hopium

permabull = actually right

 

dude... take a deep breath... have some herbal tea... take a nap... this is the kinda behavior that makes everyone cheer for a BA season, just to see you take an L

[BarryStantonGBP]

14 minutes ago, nvck said:

dude... take a deep breath... have some herbal tea... take a nap... this is the kinda behavior that makes everyone cheer for a BA season, just to see you take an L

it won't happen

[BarryStantonGBP]

below average in gta 5

 

[Roger]

17 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

can you access it or is access still rotted out for you

I am still getting a 403-forbidden message.

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 minutes ago, Roger said:

I am still getting a 403-forbidden message.

are you on a vpn?

have you tried another browser?

[WxWatcher007]

[GaWx]

 In the longer term, it’s still looking pretty quiet on the Euro Weeklies in the ATL basin through August 10th with much more activity in the WPAC and EPAC vs ATL. The GEFS runs still show a small chance for something in the NE Gulf next week.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 In the longer term, it’s still looking pretty quiet on the Euro Weeklies in the ATL basin through August 10th with much more activity in the WPAC and EPAC vs ATL. The GEFS runs still show a small chance for something in the NE Gulf next week.

 

 

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

right here we go again lads

 

i see the s2k lot are still banging on about their “mixed signals” and there are even those on stormiest cherry-picking years like 2013 out of thin air — absolute bollocks if you ask me.

now i see ustropics and his mates are wheeling out the composite charts and parroting the “composite average of the to 10 ace years” line like it means something in a real-life season. let me be clear: composites are for people who can’t handle nuance and want a mushy middle ground that doesn’t reflect reality. you might as well take a pint of every beer in the pub, mix it together, and say it tastes like “the average british lager.” it’s pure cope.

we get they've got a “professional-met” badge but acting like blending together a bunch of rando “top 10 ace” years doesn't necessarily give you some oracular vision. mate, all your composite proves is you know how to use numpy.mean, not that you understand what actually drives an active season. blending 2004, 2005, 2020, and 2017 together just smooths out every real signal, like pureeing your roast dinner in a nutribullet and calling it cuisine. storms don’t care about your composite, they care about the actual synoptic set-up in real analog years.

 

let me just break this down for yous properly since clearly none of those lot can read a bloody map innit

 

first of all let’s have a gander at these SST anomalies, shall we? look at your own maps—ive even bloody uploaded them right here for ya. compare 2004 to 2025. almost spot on. kuroshio current warm, canary current warm, cool gulf stream tongue, and your enso cold tongue—there’s your teleconnection skeleton for ya. identical mate. absolutely identical. your eyes struggling? go spec-savers then

 

right lets talk geopotential heights since you lot love that fancy terminology—again, look at the maps ive given ya. 2004 vs 2025 again. spot the difference? barely any. you’ve got your trough in europe, negative heights N Atl and NE Pac—classic azores weak high set-up. slightly deeper trough this year actually so even MORE bullish if you know what you’re looking at—which clearly most of yous don’t

 

zonal winds at 850mb—have a look at the images ive so kindly provided again—classic 2004 dipole pattern with your easterlies going strong across ITCZ subtropics again. stronger easterlies this year if anything. translation: LESS early-season shear this year, more opportunity for storms. simples innit?

 

now lets talk about the rainfall anomalies—yes yes, the one bloody difference you lot have latched onto like a drowning man onto driftwood. “ohhh but the Caribbean’s dry”—yeah right, have you ever looked at historical weeklies or are you just copy-pasting from some NOAA composite? if you bothered to look properly, you’d see this dry Caribbean bollocks is just a timing issue, happens every other big season before the monsoon and MJO surge in july. ive even included 2020 as proof—a notoriously active year that started dry in the Caribbean as well. your “dry Caribbean” is literally just waiting for the MJO to flip the switch mid-july. watch and learn

 

 

and for the 2013 comparison over on stormcast—what absolute rubbish, who pulled that one out of their arse? 2013 had cold MDR SSTs, warm subtropics, westerlies blowing all over the bloody tropics, a huge euro ridge blocking vorticity. completely opposite to 2025—use your eyes for goodness sake. it’s not even close to being in the same ballpark let alone solar system. comparing 2025 to 2013 is like comparing apples to cabbages

look—2004 delivered 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 bloody majors, ACE of 227, and four US landfalling majors. i didnt just pull these numbers out my backside—its literally history. same pattern this year, same setup, and the atmosphere is MORE favourable this time around, not less

my forecast is 17-10-4/5, ACE 190—and I bet you I would be labelled bullish. those lot stuck in your NOAA and CSU echo chambers are the bearish boomers here, hanging onto composites that hide the real story. if you think my forecast is “bullish” you’ve got another thing coming—im just calling it how it is, based on historical precedent, real patterns, and actual atmospheric dynamics—not NPC seasonal composites or broken models

wake up and smell the coffee, lads—2004 is your clean analog, your “mixed signals” is cope, and your “dry Caribbean” claim is about to get utterly shredded when the MJO flips later this month

mark my words, ill be back in september to remind ya when the first Cape Verde monster spins up and all you mixed-signal merchants scatter faster than roaches when the lights flick on

absolute state of forecasting these days—stick to your Netflix subscriptions and retirement homes if you cant keep up, leave the real forecasting to those of us who can actually see past composite means and NOAA’s “mixed signal” fantasies

rant over, and god save the bloody king

 

This is in response to this s2k user claim:

Quote

 

Posts: 2646

Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am

Location: Florida State University

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

•  

#391 by USTropics » Thu Jul 10, 2025 2:48 pm 

This has been something I’ve wanted to do for a while now, and I thought this would be a fun educational/thought experiment where we can get everyone’s opinion and ideas on the data/observations and for any future implementations (especially during the Atlantic ‘preseason’ months ). 

Essentially, we are going to use some of the same methods that CSU uses for their seasonal forecasts and apply them for each month (starting with May data). As stated above, I definitely want this to be an open conversation/discussion, so any thoughts/improvements/additions for future updates feel free to share them. If other people want the code to do this (all Python), I can also put something on Github for a more open collaboration. First, some of the more specific details on what we’re exactly doing here:
 

• We need data, so let’s use the NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis dataset from PSL. This has the benefit of being one of the more accurate reanalysis datasets that is also current (~2 day lag time from current day) and has a ton of variables/parameters to look at (e.g., heights, sea surface temperatures, zonal winds, etc.). You can find their reanalysis data and other associated products here - https://psl.noaa.gov/data/index.html
• We need to identify a set of climatology years and get a mean value for those years. One limitation of our selected dataset is it only goes back to 1948, so we’ll be selecting the top 10 years in ACE from 1948 - current. That gives us the following 10 years: 1950, 1961, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2017, 2020
• We need to identify a time period and get an average value for each year. For this post, we are going to use all 31 days in May for each year to create a climatology dataset, then we will merge those 10 active years into a singular monthly dataset. We can then create an anomaly composite using that data. 
• After this, we can identify certain departures of anomalies that appear during active years. This will make more sense later in the post, but I’ve loosely identified extent boxes and have given them labels for such areas. 
• We’ll then apply these same techniques for May 2025, and see what differences or similarities appear from our active year extent boxes.

Now that all of that is out of the way, let’s get to the fun stuff!

Sea Surface Temperatures
The only reason we can even reasonably predict hurricane seasons with skill 3-4 months in advance is because our oceans are great at storing information (in the form of energy) for ‘longer’ periods of time (physics 101: water is a great conductor of heat, but air is poor at this). So let’s start there—here is the composite for top 10 active years for SSTAs and the May 2025 data.



In this analysis, I’ve identified key regions where major global ocean currents traverse and the associated sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) that correlate with active Atlantic hurricane seasons. In addition to the ENSO region, these currents play a critical role in modulating SSTs, atmospheric circulation, and large-scale climate patterns.

++ Anomalies ++
Canary Current
Kuroshio Current

-- Anomalies --
Agulhas Current
Mozambique Current
Gulf Stream
ENSO Region

May is a transitional month when large-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns begin to organize, setting the stage for the Atlantic hurricane season. Analysis reveals a strong correlation in May between the ENSO region and forecasting the intensity of the upcoming hurricane season. La Nina is a well-established driver of active Atlantic hurricane seasons, as it reduces vertical wind shear, warms MDR SSTs, and enhances the African monsoon. Negative SSTAs in May signal the onset or persistence of La Nina, which creates a low-shear, warm-SST environment in the Atlantic (especially in the later months).

For the Atlantic, the Canary Current (and not the MDR) having a warmer signal tends to equate to a more active hurricane season. This would make sense, as positive SSTAs in the Canary Current in May tend to propagate equatorward toward the MDR and eastern Atlantic by June–August, driven by ocean currents and atmospheric forcing. 

Interestingly, a warmer Kuroshio Current equates strongly with an active Atlantic hurricane season. I believe the main correlation here is that warmer waters in the western Pacific strengthen the Hadley Cell, enhancing subsidence over the eastern Pacific and reducing upper-level westerlies over the Atlantic. This results in lower vertical wind shear in the MDR (and typically allows for +SSTA in May-June, more on that later though).

Something else I wanted to highlight here is that the Agulhas Current (southeastern African coast) and Mozambique Current (western Indian Ocean) are warm western boundary currents, but they exhibit negative SSTAs in May during active Atlantic hurricane seasons. I would need to look more into this, but I believe the correlation in May is that these cooler currents weaken convection in the eastern tropics, strengthening the Walker Circulation and favoring low-shear conditions in the Atlantic MDR.

While I didn’t highlight the far northern region of the Atlantic near Greenland (I am hesitant to highlight polar regions for SSTA with this product), a warmer pattern is also observed here north of the Gulf Stream. We can also see that the area off the Northeast United States (highlighted Gulf Stream) tends to be cooler (which has more to do with the next variable we’ll look at). 

For the most part, there are mixed signals here in May 2025 compared to active years (the northern part of the Canary Current is warm but reduced anomalies southward, warmer western Atlantic, reduced signals near Africa, etc.). However, I don't want to underestimate how much ENSO can influence patterns in a hurry, especially during the later parts of the season. This will be a good test to see how much influence it has as we progress (and look at June and July data later this year). 

Geopotential Heights
The ocean surface and atmosphere share a complex, interdependent relationship, where changes in one system often drive significant responses in the other. Analyzing 500mb geopotential height anomalies provides a robust method for identifying key atmospheric features (such as high and low-pressure systems, ridges, troughs, etc.). 




++ Anomalies ++
Northwestern Pacific

-- Anomalies --
North Atlantic
Northeastern Pacific
Europe

While there are mixed signals in the SSTA product for the Atlantic region, there is a stark difference in the 500mb geopotential heights. One of the first things that jumps out is the pattern over the CONUS and North Atlantic region for active years—a weakened Bermuda/Azores High in the North Atlantic region and lower heights extending all the way to the Northwestern CONUS/Northeastern Pacific. This makes sense, weakened/northward displaced Bermuda High -> zonal winds are reduced -> this allows for +SSTA throughout the MDR/Atlantic. In May 2025, we’ve essentially had the opposite, with a ridge extension through the GOM, subtropics, and all the way into the Northern Atlantic. This has led to +SSTA in the subtropics and western Atlantic, but has muted warming in the eastern Atlantic. 

Some of the other correlations though in May 2025 (like Europe and the Northwestern Pacific) are comparable to active years. In the Atlantic, lower heights over Europe typically weaken the downstream extension of the Azores/Bermuda High, reducing wind shear. In the Pacific, a robust ridge in the Northwestern Pacific enhances the Hadley Cell, promoting subsidence in the eastern Pacific and weakening upper-level westerlies over the Atlantic. Positive SSTAs in the Kuroshio Current, as discussed earlier, align with these height anomalies, reinforcing the teleconnection between Pacific warmth and Atlantic hurricane activity. Negative 500mb height anomalies in the Northeastern Pacific suggest a persistent trough featured or lowered heights, often associated with a northward-shifted jet stream or La Nina’s influence on Pacific circulation. This reduces the strength of the Pacific subtropical high, altering global teleconnections.

Overall though, we continue to have these competing mechanisms. The next two variables we will examine are indirectly connected to the previously discussed factors, as they are strongly influenced by geopotential height anomalies and SSTA.

Zonal Winds
The first variable, 850mb zonal winds, represents low-level atmospheric flow near the surface (~1500 km in height). These winds are critical for understanding the configuration and evolution of sea surface temperature anomalies and contribute a pivotal role in modulating ocean-atmosphere interactions.




++ Anomalies ++
Polar Front Region Extension
ITCZ Africa Extension

-- Anomalies --
ENSO Region
Subtropical Region Extension

For the Pacific, we again largely focus on the ENSO region. Weaker low-level easterlies in the Pacific indicate an established/developing La Nina (warmer SSTs -> lower shear -> enhanced convection). I’ve also highlighted the ITCZ Africa Extension, where stronger easterly winds at 850mb reflect an active West African Monsoon and is largely driven by seasonal heating over the African continent. Stronger-than-normal easterly winds at 850mb reflect an enhanced low-level flow, which strengthens moisture convergence and convection in the ITCZ. 

This is something definitely worth digging more into, but my guess is an early monsoon signal is in lock step with the MJO phase, which with persistence would lead to a robust setup for generating AEWs later in the summer. Compared to active years, the Pacific and ITCZ signals in May 2025 correlate to active years. Once again though, the North Atlantic configuration doesn’t support this.

I’ve highlighted these as Polar Front Region and Subtropics Region, but really what we are looking at is this dipole of zonal winds. In active years for May, negative 850mb zonal wind anomalies in the polar front region indicate a weaker Bermuda/Azores High (and a northward shift of the polar front jet stream). This weakens the low-level easterly trade winds typically driven by the subtropical high, resulting in a relative increase in westerly flow or reduced easterly flow at 850mb. These anomalies signal a large-scale atmospheric pattern that persists into the hurricane season, reducing vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic. Conversely, stronger easterly winds at 850mb in the subtropics, combined with weaker upper-level westerlies (again, often linked to La Nina), reduce vertical wind shear in the MDR.

The May signal for active years indicates that this low-shear pattern is likely to persist into the summer. Additionally, stronger easterly winds in the subtropics can limit upwelling in the tropical Atlantic, allowing warmer SSTs to persist in the MDR. For May 2025 though, the dipole anomalies are completely flipped. It will be interesting to see if this continues, as it would be a competing mechanism with ENSO with regards to shear/instability in the MDR and Caribbean. 

Precipitation
The last variable I want to look at is precipitation. I want to stress that, while these anomalies are not direct predictors of Atlantic hurricane season activity, they are strongly correlated with the atmospheric and oceanic factors discussed previously. Precipitation anomalies in May largely serve as a diagnostic tool, reflecting the state of large-scale circulation patterns, monsoon dynamics, and ocean-atmosphere interactions that establish the conditions for active hurricane seasons.





++ Anomalies ++
Caribbean + Western MDR
Central + Eastern Africa
Western Pacific
Indian Monsoon

-- Anomalies --
Eastern Pacific

Positive precipitation anomalies in the Caribbean and western MDR indicate enhanced convective activity, driven by warm SSTs and low-level moisture convergence in May. This is often linked to an established La Nina or cold neutral ENSO phases, which reduce upper-level westerlies and wind shear, fostering convection. Positive precipitation anomalies in Central and Eastern Africa reflect an early and robust onset of the West African Monsoon (WAM) and a northward-shifted ITCZ. These are driven by stronger low-level easterly winds (positive 850mb zonal wind anomalies) and warm SSTs in the Canary Current, which enhance moisture convergence and convection.

Positive precipitation anomalies in the Western Pacific are driven by warm SSTs in the Kuroshio Current and a strengthened Pacific subtropical high (and again, more linked to the oceanic-atmospheric ENSO configuration). In theory, enhanced convection in the Western Pacific strengthens the Walker Circulation, reducing upper-level westerlies and wind shear in the Atlantic MDR. Conversely, negative anomalies exist in the eastern Pacific. Interestingly, there is a strong correlation between an active Indian monsoon season in May and an active Atlantic hurricane season (perhaps MJO phase position related?). 

Looking at May 2025, we again have a much drier Caribbean + Western MDR, mixed signals in the eastern Pacific and western Pacific, but a strong signal with the Indian monsoon. Neutral conditions appeared over Africa.

Image Links for All Seasons
If you want to look at the anomalies for each individual active year, I put them here.
SSTA - https://imgur.com/a/Qh715i2
500mb height - https://imgur.com/a/WZEeWIj
850mb zonal wind - https://imgur.com/a/Yg3sLUt
Prate - https://imgur.com/a/bpagLYB

I’ll do this again for June data sometime next week. Definitely let me know if you have any ideas for future implementations. Some ideas that I've come up with so far:
 

• Adding additional datasets (perhaps something that goes back to 1850)
• I wanted to lean more towards visuals, but we could do correlation metrics (or build a statistical model)
• Incorporate functionality for other basins
• Adding more variables (like velocity potential, meridional winds, etc.)
• Building some sort of user interface to allow the ability to do this for custom time ranges (currently this is a Python program I created that allows a date range and year array)

 

 

and this stormcast user:

Quote

 

Kory Moderator Jul 2, 2025 at 12:43pm T-man, geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex, and 1 more like this

Quote

Kory said:

2005 was dead neutral ENSO wise...but so was the very inactive year that was 2013. Eventually the streak of above average seasons will come to an end...could be this year or could be next year. One thing of note...the Atlantic is significantly cooler than the last couple of years. By peak season the basin will be warm enough to support activity, but it is a stark contrast from the last 2 seasons. Unlike spring 2005 which has a strong +AMO horseshoe configuration in sea surface temps...we do not have that this spring. Many question marks on how this season is expected to progress, but one thing is becoming clearer is that an El Nino will not be manifesting for this season. 

 

I'm thinking more and more we're heading toward a 2013 type of inactive year.  All pre-season signs would have pointed to the Pacific being the less favorable basin vs the Atlantic, but as the season unfolded something was off.  It is incredible how stable the Atlantic basin is...all it can muster are some bird fart storms and even those are struggling. 

 

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

Just now, BarryStantonGBP said:

 

right here we go again lads

 

 

i see the s2k lot are still banging on about their “mixed signals” and there are even those on stormiest cherry-picking years like 2013 out of thin air — absolute bollocks if you ask me.

now i see ustropics and his mates are wheeling out the composite charts and parroting the “composite average of the top 10 ace years” line like it means something in a real-life season. let me be clear: composites are for people who can’t handle nuance and want a mushy middle ground that doesn’t reflect reality. you might as well take a pint of every beer in the pub, mix it together, and say it tastes like “the average british lager.” it’s pure cope.

 

let me just break this down for yous properly since clearly none of those lot can read a bloody map

first of all let’s have a gander at these SST anomalies, shall we? look at your own maps—ive even bloody uploaded them right here for ya. compare 2004 to 2025. almost spot on. kuroshio current warm, canary current warm, cool gulf stream tongue, and your enso cold tongue—there’s your teleconnection skeleton for ya. identical mate. absolutely identical. your eyes struggling? go spec-savers then

 

right lets talk geopotential heights since you lot love that fancy terminology—again, look at the maps ive given ya. 2004 vs 2025 again. spot the difference? barely any. you’ve got your trough in europe, negative heights N Atl and NE Pac—classic azores weak high set-up. slightly deeper trough this year actually so even MORE bullish if you know what you’re looking at—which clearly most of yous don’t

 

zonal winds at 850mb—have a look at the images ive so kindly provided again—classic 2004 dipole pattern with your easterlies going strong across ITCZ subtropics again. stronger easterlies this year if anything. translation: LESS early-season shear this year, more opportunity for storms. simples innit?

 

now lets talk about the rainfall anomalies—yes yes, the one bloody difference you lot have latched onto like a drowning man onto driftwood. “ohhh but the Caribbean’s dry”—yeah right, have you ever looked at historical weeklies or are you just copy-pasting from some NOAA composite? if you bothered to look properly, you’d see this dry Caribbean bollocks is just a timing issue, happens every other big season before the monsoon and MJO surge in july. ive even included 2020 as proof—a notoriously active year that started dry in the Caribbean as well. your “dry Caribbean” is literally just waiting for the MJO to flip the switch mid-july. watch and learn

 

 

and for the 2013 comparison over on stormcast—what absolute rubbish, who pulled that one out of their arse? 2013 had cold MDR SSTs, warm subtropics, westerlies blowing all over the bloody tropics, a huge euro ridge blocking vorticity. completely opposite to 2025—use your eyes for goodness sake. it’s not even close to being in the same ballpark let alone solar system. comparing 2025 to 2013 is like comparing apples to cabbages

look—2004 delivered 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 bloody majors, ACE of 227, and four US landfalling majors. i didnt just pull these numbers out my backside—its literally history. same pattern this year, same setup, and the atmosphere is MORE favourable this time around, not less

my forecast is 17-10-4/5, ACE 190—and I bet you I would be labelled bullish. those lot stuck in your NOAA and CSU echo chambers are the bearish boomers here, hanging onto composites that hide the real story. if you think my forecast is “bullish” you’ve got another thing coming—im just calling it how it is, based on historical precedent, real patterns, and actual atmospheric dynamics—not NPC seasonal composites or broken models

wake up and smell the coffee, lads—2004 is your clean analog, your “mixed signals” is cope, and your “dry Caribbean” claim is about to get utterly shredded when the MJO flips later this month

mark my words, ill be back in september to remind ya when the first Cape Verde monster spins up and all you mixed-signal merchants scatter faster than roaches when the lights flick on

absolute state of forecasting these days—stick to your Netflix subscriptions and retirement homes if you cant keep up, leave the real forecasting to those of us who can actually see past composite means and NOAA’s “mixed signal” fantasies

rant over, and god save the bloody king

 

This is in response to this s2k user claim:

 

tldr: look at the pics i posted. you want receipts? i’ve got them:

• ssta 2004 vs 2025: basically one-for-one on every global teleconnection that matters—cold tongue, warm kuroshio, warm canary, cool gulf stream tongue, the whole shebang. only meaningful difference is a slightly less amped ENSO box (but spatial footprint is identical).

• 500mb heights: negative north atlantic/positive ridge in nw pacific, euro trough, even the amplitude is 10–15m stronger in 2025. this is NOT a “mixed” or “confused” state; it’s a classic pattern that opens the mdr in july/aug.

• 850mb zonal wind: 2025’s got even stronger easterlies across the ITCZ and eastern atlantic than 2004. you can see the subtropical jet setting up the early wave train survival conditions.

• precip: i’ll give you one—caribbean is dry in may 2025 vs 2004. but here’s the rub: 2004’s caribbean went green after may, with the mjo pulse in july flipping the script. same signal is showing up for this year (see euro weeklies, july mjo inbound). so, the only thing your “composite” is flagging is a temporary lag, not a brick wall.

 

and now you’ve got these model simps acting like it’s 2013 all over again. get to specsavers mate:

• 2013 had cold mdr, warm subtropics, persistent positive 850mb westerly anomaly across the deep tropics (shear guillotine), and a euro ridge/ne-pac ridge that shut down vorticity. none of that is in play for 2025. not even close.

• 2025 is literally painting the same pre-season canvas as 2004, which—reminder—delivered 6 majors and ace near 230, not some washed-out 2013 flop.

 

about relying on “traditional models”—are we still pretending these things have skill past 5 days, let alone months out? how many times do we have to watch the same csu/noaa/ukmet parade get pantsed by reality before we admit the emperor’s got no clothes? they chase composites and ensemble means, but can’t see the actual synoptic pattern unfolding under their nose. weather doesn’t care about your python scripts or your github repo. show me a model that nailed the timing and location of landfalls last year. oh wait, you can’t.

composites are for people who are scared to make a call. if you want to “average out” the signal, you’ll always see “mixed” because that’s what happens when you blur out all the structure. but you look at actual years—like 2004—and stack up every large-scale lever (ssts, heights, zonal wind, rainfall)—and it’s obvious: the levers are cocked for a proper atlantic rager.

so stop cherry-picking, stop hiding behind composite copium, and stop acting like the models have any real predictive power for seasonal skill.

2004 is the analog, 2025 is the set-up, and if you want to wait for a model to tell you it’s “active” you’ll be left holding your own busted forecast when the mdr lights up.

and if you’re still not convinced, go back to the pics i posted. you’ll see every driver lining up except the caribbean box in may—which, again, flips anyway as soon as the monsoon fires up. no amount of spreadsheeting or composite averaging can erase the fact that the real synoptic features are all lined up for another major season.

so crack open a can of stella and watch the bearish lot and composite-copers try to explain it all away when the waves start rolling.

[BarryStantonGBP]

@GaWxdoes category5kaiju use this forum, would be cool to bantz with him innit

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

@GaWxdoes category5kaiju use this forum, would be cool to bantz with him innit

He doesn’t post here. Of course I have no idea if he reads it.

[BarryStantonGBP]

now, let’s talk about models. these are the same clowns who had 2013 going ape and then it flatlined, or 2017 where everyone spent July 2017 crying about “weak storms” and then irma/maria/harvey dropped a fat deuce on the entire basin (see the screenshots from the s2k doomers). you’d think by now they’d have learned — but no, they’re still here, hiding behind their “professional” tag and “seasonal skill” copes

 

even the bloody rainfall precip was predicted in July 2017 to be dry as me neighbour's Yorkshire roast for ASO, exactly where we are in July 2025, low precip for ASO

and this 2013 analog nonsense? complete delusion. 2013 had a cold mdr, positive 850mb westerly anomalies, and a torchy subtropics, literally the opposite of what’s in play this year. pull up the 2013 ssta screenshot (dylan’s post) — you can see it’s dogshit for the mdr, pure wall-to-wall stability. not even close to 2025. 

 

sst anomalies: July 2013/2017/2025

muh cold mdr

muh cold caribbean

 

 

now, look at the july 2025 sst anomaly - the last pic: basically a 2017 repeat, except the cold tongue is even further north, which is what you want for majors, not a “brick wall” like 2013. your own receipts prove you wrong

 

now we compare canary current and the eastern atlantic; 2017 vs 2025

 

(last pic was 11th July 2025 right in the middle of this bloody heatwave)

 

so what do you get if you actually pay attention to the analog?

 

• every major driver (sst, heights, low-level wind, monsoon) matches 2004 almost perfectly

• caribbean rainfall lag is just a may artifact, always flips by mid-july, see the weeklies

• s2k forum doomers and stormiest types were all saying “mixed signals” in 2017 and it still went nuclear

• models only matter if you pick the right analogs — otherwise, you get “mixed signals” and clown forecasts

 

 

tl;dr:

 

• composites = cope, blend the signal to mush

• actual analog (2004) = almost identical to 2025, except 2025 is even more bullish

• caribbean dryness is timing, not structure — mjo pulse already on the horizon

• anyone invoking 2013 as an analog is just admitting they never looked at the actual sst structure

• receipts don’t lie, so keep them handy for august when the boomers and the pro-mets get mogged

 

 

oh, and the last screenshot? go compare the july 2025 sst to 2017. both have the mdr blazing, none of the cold brick 2013 energy the doomers want you to see. it’s all there in the images. keep coping with your “composites,” but the real hurricane season is going to trump your averages off the map.

 

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

He doesn’t post here. Of course I have no idea if he reads it.

no problem, do you know who can invite him onto here?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

now, let’s talk about models. these are the same clowns who had 2013 going ape and then it flatlined, or 2017 where everyone spent July 2017 crying about “weak storms” and then irma/maria/harvey dropped a fat deuce on the entire basin (see the screenshots from the s2k doomers). you’d think by now they’d have learned — but no, they’re still here, hiding behind their “professional” tag and “seasonal skill” copes

 

even the bloody rainfall precip was predicted in July 2017 to be dry as me neighbour's Yorkshire roast for ASO, exactly where we are in July 2025, low precip for ASO

and this 2013 analog nonsense? complete delusion. 2013 had a cold mdr, positive 850mb westerly anomalies, and a torchy subtropics, literally the opposite of what’s in play this year. pull up the 2013 ssta screenshot (dylan’s post) — you can see it’s dogshit for the mdr, pure wall-to-wall stability. not even close to 2025. 

 

sst anomalies: July 2013/2017/2025

muh cold mdr

muh cold caribbean

 

 

now, look at the july 2025 sst anomaly - the last pic: basically a 2017 repeat, except the cold tongue is even further north, which is what you want for majors, not a “brick wall” like 2013. your own receipts prove you wrong

 

now we compare canary current and the eastern atlantic; 2017 vs 2025

 

(last pic was 11th July 2025 right in the middle of this bloody heatwave)

 

so what do you get if you actually pay attention to the analog?

 

• every major driver (sst, heights, low-level wind, monsoon) matches 2004 almost perfectly

• caribbean rainfall lag is just a may artifact, always flips by mid-july, see the weeklies

• s2k forum doomers and stormiest types were all saying “mixed signals” in 2017 and it still went nuclear

• models only matter if you pick the right analogs — otherwise, you get “mixed signals” and clown forecasts

 

 

tl;dr:

 

• composites = cope, blend the signal to mush

• actual analog (2004) = almost identical to 2025, except 2025 is even more bullish

• caribbean dryness is timing, not structure — mjo pulse already on the horizon

• anyone invoking 2013 as an analog is just admitting they never looked at the actual sst structure

• receipts don’t lie, so keep them handy for august when the boomers and the pro-mets get mogged

 

 

oh, and the last screenshot? go compare the july 2025 sst to 2017. both have the mdr blazing, none of the cold brick 2013 energy the doomers want you to see. it’s all there in the images. keep coping with your “composites,” but the real hurricane season is going to trump your averages off the map.

 

 

I’m definitely liking the water temp

configuration more now. What I’m really looking forward to is any storms that make into the subtropics. Given good shear profiles we could see some record far north majors.  

[BarryStantonGBP]

16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m definitely liking the water temp

configuration more now. What I’m really looking forward to is any storms that make into the subtropics. Given good shear profiles we could see some record far north majors.  

yeah mate you’re bang on the water temp config this year is basically tailor made for a high-latitude freak show honestly the subtropics are glowing the whole north atlantic is on some kind of pre-industrial revolution sauce right now you look at those july sst anomaly maps i posted it’s just a wall of orange from the gulf stream up past the azores even into the maritimes

 

people keep sleeping on what happens when you get a wave with legs making it north of 35n with this kind of fuel under it and the right upper-level window we’re not just talking about a classic cape verde track anymore you’re gonna see some real “hold my beer” moments when something bombs out well north of bermuda like my lad ernie from last year

 

last time we had a similar set up 2017/2005/2020 we got hurricanes cranking way up in the extratropics and they weren’t just headlines they were making history don’t be surprised if we see a proper major spinning up at 40n this year

 

brings me back memories of 2019, the category 3 off NYC (not dorian)

 

all these copers saying “oh it’s all gonna be homebrew storms” have clearly not clocked the ssta layout north of the main development region you get a persistent ridge break or a stalled upper-low and it’s off to the races

 

tl;dr the subtropics are a powder keg the mdr is loaded and if we get the right wave you’re gonna see some weird headlines out of nova scotia and the azores let’s see who’s still talking down the risk once september comes

 

bring on the freaks innit

[BarryStantonGBP]

also in response to s2k posters:
 

quote 1:

Quote

 

WeatherBoy2000

Category 1

Posts: 338

Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:29 am

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

•  

#398 by WeatherBoy2000 » Fri Jul 11, 2025 12:02 pm 

The mdr has rapidly warmed up in the last few weeks. Now ranging from 0.3-0.5c above normal, the warmest it's been in a while: 

this guy is spot on about the mdr. you can see in the latest sst anomaly maps (posted above, 11 july 2025) — the mdr is now basically on par with 2017, especially in the central + western half. that 0.3–0.5c warmth is well within the “active as hell” territory, especially for mid-july. anyone who’s been tracking these years knows it’s not the level but the rate of warming that matters this time of year — and the mdr has gone full turbo. you look at those pics side by side with 2004 and even 2017, and it’s literally the same, if not more bullish right now. last i checked, cape verde monsters didn’t give a toss about whether the ssta is 0.3 or 0.5 — it’s the setup that matters, and it’s loaded.

 

quote 2:

Quote

chaser1 S2K Supporter
Posts: 5462 Age: 64 Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

•  

#399 by chaser1 » Fri Jul 11, 2025 12:27 pm 

15 day SST change also implies slight warming in the far Eastern Pacific as well. Possible connection for a end of month "waning" MJO signal back inside the circle? With unknowns such as whether Uncle SAL has moved out of the East/Central Atlantic by early August, increased EPAC SST's might just continue to aid toward continued broad (Atlantic) basin stability. 'Course, that wouldn't necessarily eliminate additional home-grown or subtopics genesis. Hopefully though, that pattern persistence will continue to cap storm intensities for a good portion of next month.

this bloke (and he constantly is doing this for the entire season) is holding out for the “uncle sal” save, but this is the same script as every year when the mdr lights up. yes, e pac sst is warming a bit, but the mjo “waning” argument only matters if you get a phase stall. the mjo pulse is setting up right on time for late july. that’s the same time frame you saw the rainfall signature flip in 2004 (and 2017), after the “dry caribbean” anomaly in may/june.

the “broad basin stability” thing is just another way of saying “i hope for a slow season,” but we’ve all seen that story before. how many years in the last decade did people bang on about “sal, stability, e pac torching” — and then august drops a parade of majors from the mdr? (2017, 2020, even 2021 to an extent).

and anyone refusing even 2021 as an analogue needs to go to speccies mate

at the end of the day, you can watch e pac warm as much as you want, but unless you see a full-on el niño reload — which is not even on the table right now — the atlantic mdr is primed, and every teleconnection that matters is cocked for an active august. all the “home-grown” or “subtropics genesis” copium doesn’t erase the fact that the main development region is basically a powder keg as soon as uncle sal backs off for five minutes.

take a look at the most recent sst overlays i posted (including 11 july 2025), compare them to any of the active years, and show me where the “capping” is supposed to be. if anything, the upper-level pattern is even more bullish this time around.

so yeah, keep an eye on the mjo and sal, but stop praying for stability miracles — the basin is primed, receipts are posted, and the wave train is about to get rolling whether the composite copers like it or not

let’s see who’s still talking “broad stability” once the majors start lining up

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[Boston Bulldog]

After wading through pages of psuedoscience and copy-paste, I have one conclusion... we really need a storm to track

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

>pseudoscience

not a single photon

+

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[WxWatcher007]

Why am I supposed to care what people say on another weather board? If you want to argue over their forecast, do it there with them. 

I haven't seen anybody here seriously argue that 2013 is walking through the door. There's ample evidence that it is not. 

But the 2004 and 2024 comparisons don't seem apples to apples, and I definitely don't expect something on the order of near 200 ACE when 2024 barely crossed the hyperactive threshold. But if you want to use 2024 as an example, in addition to the historic backloaded season that occurred and historic early season long track category 5, there was also an unprecedented period of virtually no activity right through the late August and mid-September peak. 

It's indisputable that there are mixed signals. That's not cope lol, it's fact. 

Despite the SST configuration which lends itself toward more stability in the tropical Atlantic, we have very low SAL as Lowry notes in his recent post. Mixed signal. Though I do think that the changes we're seeing in the tropical Atlantic could lend itself toward less stability if it continues. But I need to see what early to mid August looks like in the MDR. If there's an iron lid, especially toward mid-August, that will not be a good sign IMO. If however, stability isn't an issue in August, that would strongly lend itself toward an active MDR in September. 

This is the climatological peak of SAL, so even though it's near record lows it's still there for now. Anyone arguing that we're running toward a BN season based on the observed conditions thus far has forgotten that climatology is the definition of quiet through this part of the season. We're still 3/0/0. 

This look closes off much of the MDR, but look at the homebrew region off the U.S. coast. Unlike past years where the entire basin was being suffocated, the western Atlantic doesn't look abnormally dusty. Mixed signal. 

Yes, the tropical Atlantic and MDR are warming up, and doing so above the climatological average. That's a big deal in a neutral ENSO state. In our active Atlantic period I think it yells above average more than it did a month ago for sure. That puts me at least right back to where I've always been--lean AN. 

 

But these temperatures are nowhere close to 2023 or 2024 and while these configurations may suggest that we see more named storms they definitely aren't the arbiter of what the basin can do with major hurricanes. 

Remember, it's easy to get a NS, harder to get a H, and very hard to get a MH. For a MH you need enough runway with +SSTa, -wind shear, and a deep reserve of warmth. 

Whereas 2024 and prior seasons had that in spades, the biggest difference between 2025 and those years is OHC. It's not even close. 

This was June 2024

 

Now look at today

To be clear, this is closer to normal. Yeah, there's a lot less heat, but we still can and will get MH out of these. But the reserve of heat is not on the level of other years. 

2017

2020

2023

2024

2025

 

So yeah, the signals are mixed. But the current mix of observations and forecasts still suggest that this is an AN season. I don't think hyperactive is truly on the table, but check back August 15. 

[Normandy Ho]

19 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

After wading through pages of psuedoscience and copy-paste, I have one conclusion... we really need a storm to track

 

Barry and his theories can’t hold us over much longer

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Why am I supposed to care what people say on another weather board? If you want to argue over their forecast, do it there with them. 

I haven't seen anybody here seriously argue that 2013 is walking through the door. There's ample evidence that it is not. 

But the 2004 and 2024 comparisons don't seem apples to apples, and I definitely don't expect something on the order of near 200 ACE when 2024 barely crossed the hyperactive threshold. But if you want to use 2024 as an example, in addition to the historic backloaded season that occurred and historic early season long track category 5, there was also an unprecedented period of virtually no activity right through the late August and mid-September peak. 

It's indisputable that there are mixed signals. That's not cope lol, it's fact. 

Despite the SST configuration which lends itself toward more stability in the tropical Atlantic, we have very low SAL as Lowry notes in his recent post. Mixed signal. Though I do think that the changes we're seeing in the tropical Atlantic could lend itself toward less stability if it continues. But I need to see what early to mid August looks like in the MDR. If there's an iron lid, especially toward mid-August, that will not be a good sign IMO. If however, stability isn't an issue in August, that would strongly lend itself toward an active MDR in September. 

This is the climatological peak of SAL, so even though it's near record lows it's still there for now. Anyone arguing that we're running toward a BN season based on the observed conditions thus far has forgotten that climatology is the definition of quiet through this part of the season. We're still 3/0/0. 

This look closes off much of the MDR, but look at the homebrew region off the U.S. coast. Unlike past years where the entire basin was being suffocated, the western Atlantic doesn't look abnormally dusty. Mixed signal. 

Yes, the tropical Atlantic and MDR are warming up, and doing so above the climatological average. That's a big deal in a neutral ENSO state. In our active Atlantic period I think it yells above average more than it did a month ago for sure. That puts me at least right back to where I've always been--lean AN. 

 

But these temperatures are nowhere close to 2023 or 2024 and while these configurations may suggest that we see more named storms they definitely aren't the arbiter of what the basin can do with major hurricanes. 

Remember, it's easy to get a NS, harder to get a H, and very hard to get a MH. For a MH you need enough runway with +SSTa, -wind shear, and a deep reserve of warmth. 

Whereas 2024 and prior seasons had that in spades, the biggest difference between 2025 and those years is OHC. It's not even close. 

This was June 2024

 

Now look at today

To be clear, this is closer to normal. Yeah, there's a lot less heat, but we still can and will get MH out of these. But the reserve of heat is not on the level of other years. 

2017

2020

2023

2024

2025

 

So yeah, the signals are mixed. But the current mix of observations and forecasts still suggest that this is an AN season. I don't think hyperactive is truly on the table, but check back August 15. 

Biggest take away is the near record OHC off the east coast specially around 35n. Any storm threating the east coast  will have ample fuel. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Biggest take away is the near record OHC off the east coast specially around 35n. Any storm threating the east coast  will have ample fuel. 

Quite warm along the coast in recent years.

[BarryStantonGBP]

55 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Why am I supposed to care what people say on another weather board? If you want to argue over their forecast, do it there with them. 

I haven't seen anybody here seriously argue that 2013 is walking through the door. There's ample evidence that it is not. 

But the 2004 and 2024 comparisons don't seem apples to apples, and I definitely don't expect something on the order of near 200 ACE when 2024 barely crossed the hyperactive threshold. But if you want to use 2024 as an example, in addition to the historic backloaded season that occurred and historic early season long track category 5, there was also an unprecedented period of virtually no activity right through the late August and mid-September peak. 

It's indisputable that there are mixed signals. That's not cope lol, it's fact. 

Despite the SST configuration which lends itself toward more stability in the tropical Atlantic, we have very low SAL as Lowry notes in his recent post. Mixed signal. Though I do think that the changes we're seeing in the tropical Atlantic could lend itself toward less stability if it continues. But I need to see what early to mid August looks like in the MDR. If there's an iron lid, especially toward mid-August, that will not be a good sign IMO. If however, stability isn't an issue in August, that would strongly lend itself toward an active MDR in September. 

This is the climatological peak of SAL, so even though it's near record lows it's still there for now. Anyone arguing that we're running toward a BN season based on the observed conditions thus far has forgotten that climatology is the definition of quiet through this part of the season. We're still 3/0/0. 

This look closes off much of the MDR, but look at the homebrew region off the U.S. coast. Unlike past years where the entire basin was being suffocated, the western Atlantic doesn't look abnormally dusty. Mixed signal. 

Yes, the tropical Atlantic and MDR are warming up, and doing so above the climatological average. That's a big deal in a neutral ENSO state. In our active Atlantic period I think it yells above average more than it did a month ago for sure. That puts me at least right back to where I've always been--lean AN. 

 

But these temperatures are nowhere close to 2023 or 2024 and while these configurations may suggest that we see more named storms they definitely aren't the arbiter of what the basin can do with major hurricanes. 

Remember, it's easy to get a NS, harder to get a H, and very hard to get a MH. For a MH you need enough runway with +SSTa, -wind shear, and a deep reserve of warmth. 

Whereas 2024 and prior seasons had that in spades, the biggest difference between 2025 and those years is OHC. It's not even close. 

This was June 2024

 

Now look at today

To be clear, this is closer to normal. Yeah, there's a lot less heat, but we still can and will get MH out of these. But the reserve of heat is not on the level of other years. 

2017

2020

2023

2024

2025

 

So yeah, the signals are mixed. But the current mix of observations and forecasts still suggest that this is an AN season. I don't think hyperactive is truly on the table, but check back August 15. 

right here’s the thing mate you keep saying “mixed signals” as if that’s some badge of honour for not having an opinion just because there’s not 100% consensus on every single indicator doesn’t mean you can just sit on the fence until september and then post “i told you so” either way the only reason there’s “mixed” anything is because everyone’s copium-addicted to the composite charts instead of looking at the actual year-on-year overlays like i posted

 

let’s talk apples to apples since you’re bringing up 2004 and 2024 as if they’re the same animal they’re not even in the same zoo 2024 was an el niño hangover year with a spring mdr lid so thick you could serve sunday roast on it the only reason it backloaded is because the mjo went ballistic in september and the canary current spat a warm anomaly into the main development region now look at the 2025 sst overlays (and yes, i posted the maps, not some coped-out composite) it’s a carbon copy of 2004 right down to the global dipoles, but with even stronger itcz support and the shear dropping earlier

 

the “ohc is not 2024” line is classic boomer cope as well you don’t need 2024-level ohc to get majors in the atlantic—look at 2017, the majors all tracked along the mdr-warm corridor and exploded when the upper-level pattern unlocked i’ve posted the week-by-week sst and ohc maps if you wanna check your own receipts you just need enough for rapid intensification, not endless warehouse reserves if you only go bullish in literal record years you’ll never catch the true analog years before the boom

 

you also keep hedging with “let’s see by mid-august” and “i need more data”—that’s just covering your arse so you can never be wrong you said yourself this is a +anomalous sst year with neutral enso, record-low sal, and a wind profile about to crack open from the west african monsoon if you’re “lean an” you should be bullish, period this isn’t 2013, this isn’t 2024, and if you actually look at the subtropical ssta and the evolving ohc corridor, you’ll see it’s 2017-2004 hybrid energy with even more mdr runway if the first proper wave survives

 

also 2025 ohc > 2017 ohc according to the maps you posted innit

 

the “do it there” line is rich considering half the takes in here are recycled from s2k and stormiest anyway just admit you’re in the camp of “nobody knows so i’ll only commit once a cat 2 is on the map” and move on

 

some of us will keep calling it like we see it with the receipts and the week-by-week analog overlays when the wave train lights up don’t be shy to come back and say “alright, grandpa, you had a point”

 

cheers

barry out

[BarryStantonGBP]

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Quite warm along the coast in recent years.

no wonder I have a Newfoundland landfall in my forecast

[BarryStantonGBP]