tacoman25 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 By the way, the October 2010 PDO was -1.06 Four straight months -1 or lower. Other years with every month July through October -1 or lower: 1933, 1955, 1961, 2008. 1933 was the only one that did not go on to have a very -PDO over the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The biggest hope for the East Coast is just to maintain the absurd NAO/AO block that's occurring right now. Most La Niñas don't have nearly the amount of high-latitude blocking we're seeing this winter, and that's why 55-56 was an important analog for me since it did have the strong -NAO despite a raging Niña. I went pretty cold/snowy for December as I think we'll get something from the Day 7 threat and then have another reload of the pattern later in the month. I do think that eventually the Niña and strong PV will overwhelm the blocking signal and we'll get a milder February, but it's hard to say as we're playing around with levels of solar activity that haven't been seen since 1810. No one knows if that's the reason the AO/NAO are behaving like this. Some old-school La Niña winters were very snowy and cold for the East Coast, such as 1903-04 and 1916-17. Yes, this is always a problem when people use ninos or ninas to analog winters-- the sample size is too small. Its far too easy to say that the climate was different in 1903-04 and 1916-17 and that a winter like that cant or wont happen again with those same enso conditions. If we have similar indicies and solar activity to those years there is really no reason we cant have a season similar to what we achieved in those winters. Heck, we just had the most neg nao on record in a strong el nino and no one thought that could happen either-- so why not in a la nina also? Its always precarious to say something "cant happen" when you have such a small sample size-- not even a sample size of 100 years is enough to begin to cover all the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Of course it depends what source you use...I was pretty surprised at the CPC/NOAA maps and numbers given what TAO and Unisys show. Of course, it's always a question of whose methodology to trust in things like this. I'm not really sure how each site prepares its map, but the TAO and Unisys showed a much stronger cold bubble in Region 3.4 as well as cooling in Region 4 that NOAA hasn't really caught onto yet. We'll see if the sources start to converge soon but I was overall surprised today at the lack of cooling shown by NOAA/CPC. You also have to remember the weeklies are an average so include warmer days from around 11/23-25. Unisys and TAO did show we were correct about Region 4, not NOAA. Weird stuff... Anyway here are the CPC weeklies, good cooling across the board but nothing earth-shattering: Region 4: -1.4C Region 3.4: -1.6C Region 3: -1.7C Region 1.2: -1.4C I thought it was still cooling and was surprised by Dt's assertion on the radio show last night that it wasn't when discussing why he wasn't sure what to forecast for February as he thought the nina might be weak enough by then to have a non nina like pattern in the last half of feb and March . To me, the nina looks like it will stay in the moderate to strong range through Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I believe DT is correct is saying that it will be colder and stormier in late Feb and March. I think HM is on the same page also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Decent collection of OHC building again toward New Guinea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The biggest hope for the East Coast is just to maintain the absurd NAO/AO block that's occurring right now. Most La Niñas don't have nearly the amount of high-latitude blocking we're seeing this winter, and that's why 55-56 was an important analog for me since it did have the strong -NAO despite a raging Niña. What about 1984-85? Or is that too extreme for using as an analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 What about 1984-85? Or is that too extreme for using as an analog? That Nina barely scraped lower-end moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I believe DT is correct is saying that it will be colder and stormier in late Feb and March. I think HM is on the same page also. 88-89 could be a possible analog.... we barely missed out on a major snowstorm in Feb 89 that gave ACY 20 inches. Another possible analog is 05-06, when we had a cold Dec, mild Jan and then the big snowstorm in Feb. Both were ninas that turned colder later on in the winter, in addition to the 55-56 analog Nate is using. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That Nina barely scraped lower-end moderate. Right, I'm aware of that but I was just thinking about the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 88-89 could be a possible analog.... we barely missed out on a major snowstorm in Feb 89 that gave ACY 20 inches. Another possible analog is 05-06, when we had a cold Dec, mild Jan and then the big snowstorm in Feb. Both were ninas that turned colder later on in the winter, in addition to the 55-56 analog Nate is using. Of course if we get continued blocking 55-56 becomes the main player and good blocking overcame the strong nino last winter especially in Feb. In March it is usually colder in La Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 A couple of comments, 2005-20006 was a pretty weak nina. esnowman, when you discuss nina versus nino temps, be careful as there are big differences. ninos are colder in the south north to DC than ninas. The opposite holds over Ny into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 A couple of comments, 2005-20006 was a pretty weak nina. esnowman, when you discuss nina versus nino temps, be careful as there are big differences. ninos are colder in the south north to DC than ninas. The opposite holds over Ny into New England. I'm just saying if we get good blocking we're be ok and ( I may be wrong) it seems like in March ninas at least around the Philly area are colder that ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I'm just saying if we get good blocking we're be ok and ( I may be wrong) it seems like in March ninas at least around the Philly area are colder that ninos. As far as March Niños being warm there are major exceptions, such as 2007. Even in 1998, March was far less "torchy" than January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 As far as March Niños being warm there are major exceptions, such as 2007. Even in 1998, March was far less "torchy" than January and February. Yes in 1998 it was one of the few times that winter I had snow,even though rain washed it away and 2007 we had a couple of nice sleet storms and it was cold that month also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 a quick check of the cold and mild February's since 1950 by enso...ONI index...Mild is 36.0 and above...Cold is 32.0 and below... El Nino warm....cold.... 1952....1958 1983....1978 1992....1995 1998....2003 2005....2007 El Nada 1953....1962 1954....1967 1960....1979 1961....1980 1981....1986 1984....1993 1990....1994 1991.... 1997.... La nina 1951....1950 1956....1963 1957....1968 1976....1972 1985....1974 1999 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Would 1973 or 1974 fit as a cold February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Would 1973 or 1974 fit as a cold February? February 1974 was listed...It averaged 31.7...1973 was 32.5...The middle of the country was mild both years ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 February 1974 was listed...It averaged 31.7...1973 was 32.5...The middle of the country was mild both years ... I overlooked the listing of Febrary 1974. I don't recall February 1973 being particularly mild in the middle of the country though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I overlooked the listing of Febrary 1974. I don't recall February 1973 being particularly mild in the middle of the country though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I don't see the image in my reply, but that little yellow splotch is hardly representative of being particularly warm. But by February the Niño was crashing, almost at the rate that last winter's Niño crashed into this summer's Niña. In fact my pet theory about why that was a "no snow" winter for New York was that the Niña transition kllled off the normal February shot for a KU storm during a Niño. Thinking of such Februaries as 1958, 1969, 1978, 1995, 2003 and of course 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I don't see the image in my reply, but that little yellow splotch is hardly representative of being particularly warm. But by February the Niño was crashing, almost at the rate that last winter's Niño crashed into this summer's Niña. In fact my pet theory about why that was a "no snow" winter for New York was that the Niña transition kllled off the normal February shot for a KU storm during a Niño. Thinking of such Februaries as 1958, 1969, 1978, 1995, 2003 and of course 2010. that map is deceiving...the orange is 3-6 above average leaving out 1-3 above...1998 was a nino with no snow or cold air...The nino Februaries are more hits than misses... 1952.....2.8" 1958...10.7" 1964...14.1" 1966.....9.8" 1969...15.3" 1970.....6.4" 1973.....0.8" 1977.....5.4" 1978...23.0" 1983...21.5" 1987.....7.0" 1988.....1.5" 1992.....1.0" 1995...11.6" 1998.....Trace 2003...26.1" 2005...15.8" 2007.....3.8" 2010...36.9" ave.....11.2 10 good years... 6 bad years... 3 mediocre... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 that map is deceiving...the orange is 3-6 above average leaving out 1-3 above...1998 was a nino with no snow or cold air...The nino Februaries are more hits than misses... 1970.....6.4" 1973.....0.8" 1988.....1.5" It's probably a bit better since, for the reasons I stated I question the inclusion of February 1973 as a "Niño" month; ditto February 1970 and 1988. In all three cases we were deep into crashes into La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 It's probably a bit better since, for the reasons I stated I question the inclusion of February 1973 as a "Niño" month; ditto February 1970 and 1988. In all three cases we were deep into crashes into La Niña. I don't know, the same argument could be made for 1964... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I don't know, the same argument could be made for 1964... Was 1964 as rapid a decline? As was 1963-64 a strong Niño? Or anywhere near as strong as 1968-early 1970? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Was 1964 as rapid a decline? As was 1963-64 a strong Niño? Or anywhere near as strong as 1968-early 1970? Yes, 1964 saw a similar decline as some of the other years you mentioned. 1963-64 was a slightly stronger Nino than 1969-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Yes, 1964 saw a similar decline as some of the other years you mentioned. 1963-64 was a slightly stronger Nino than 1969-70. Even measuring from 1968-9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Was 1964 as rapid a decline? As was 1963-64 a strong Niño? Or anywhere near as strong as 1968-early 1970? the winters of 1951-52, 1956-57, 1964-65, 1971-72, and 1975-76 had a steady decline in la nina from the start...all of these winters had March snowfalls in NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 the winters of 1951-52, 1956-57, 1964-65, 1971-72, and 1975-76 had a steady decline in la nina from the start...all of these winters had March snowfalls in NYC... Exactly my point; a nascent Niño or declining Niña is very snow-friendly. Witness April 7, 1982, March 2, 2009 or April 1, 1997. In 1971-2 virtually all of our snow was from the second half of February on. A descending Niño or buiding Niña quite the contrary. Witness such horrorshows as February 1988 or February 1973. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Exactly my point; a nascent Niño or declining Niña is very snow-friendly. Witness April 7, 1982, March 2, 2009 or April 1, 1997. In 1971-2 virtually all of our snow was from the second half of February on. A descending Niño or buiding Niña quite the contrary. Witness such horrorshows as February 1988 or February 1973. February 1988 had a storm that started as snow but quickly changed to rain in the city but Port Jervis N.Y. got 10"...The third major storm for them that winter...they got 57" while we got 19... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Even measuring from 1968-9? That was the same strength as 1963-64, peaked at +1.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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