cheese007 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Looking more and more like Monday in TX will be more noteable for severe potential than eclipse visibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 1 hour ago, cheese007 said: Looking more and more like Monday in TX will be more noteable for severe potential than eclipse visibility Fortunately, as things stand now, the severe weather potential should hold off until the late afternoon / early evening hours (after the Eclipse time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 5 Author Share Posted April 5 Apparently looking at a three day event over much the same area with all hazards possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 Consistent signal (0Z, 6Z) NAM for an MCS to form over Central Texas and move E. NAM and GFS don't support, Canadian does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Tuesday night looks to be most interesting for Southern half of TX just ahead of an abnormally deepening, incoming 500Mb Low tracking pretty far south (for the time of year) through the state near Midland, and then into Austin or DFW region Wednesday on both Euro & Canadian. Which would provide lots of support for lift for most of the state to erode any capping issues ahead of it and the cold front (even here in STX down to the lower Rio Grande plains/border) if that much more southerly track indeed happens. Trough attached south of the Low also looks to be at least neutrally-tilted (instead of positive). Pretty steep ML lapse rates around 8 C/km in STX and formidable DL shear 50 - 60 kts once again on Euro, along with ample CAPE to the surface on all 3 main globals (70 F+ DPs very likely in place over TX Coastal region ahead of cold front). Will see what CAMs show Monday (when Tuesday night timeframe comes into depiction). But Euro the past couple of days has been consistently showing a pretty sharp linear MCS, rapidly initiating from Laredo - San Antonio/Austin region around midnight. Damaging winds would likely be primary threat if indeed sharply linear (along with lots of lightning obviously but could be very frequent here in STX). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 DFW to SPS in an Enhanced for tomorrow, 30% hail and hatched. Late ahead of storms in the 287 area between the two cities, lapse rates in the hail layer between near 7 to near 8C/km, near 60 knot 0-6km shear per 12Z hi-res NAM. CINH is increasing, but enough 1 km helicity for a possible tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Crazy to think we could be dealing with low clouds and severe t'storms tomorrow given dewpoints today mostly in the 20s & 30s. But I guess that's the Plains for ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 radar says this could be 4" hail near Memphis TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 >80 dBZ with warned hailer E-ern Dallas County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 Looks even better in a loop, but I don't have the attachment size left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: >80 dBZ with warned hailer E-ern Dallas County. here it was 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 9 Author Share Posted April 9 D1 ENH with a 10% sigtor and D2 MOD with a 15% sigtor hatch. D3 has two discrete SLGT areas, one strecthing from KY into far western PA and the other from the FL panhandle into NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 Supercell on that boundary in the Austin area could be bad news, especially with rush hour on I-35. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 Parents outside Longview have had 7.6” rain as of 5 pm local time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 1 hour ago, canderson said: Parents outside Longview have had 7.6” rain as of 5 pm local time 5.93" total IMBY on the north side of Longview. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 11 minutes ago, cstrunk said: 5.93" total IMBY on the north side of Longview. They’re down on the southern side and radar looked heavier for sure. Regardless that’s a metric ton of rain on one day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 3 inch hail in PDS Severe Thunderstorm Warning just N/NW of Austin. Just heard it on Ryan Hall. Not on NWS yes. 3 inch hail. Edit- I feel cheated, the words 'particularly dangerous' nor the letters PDS are part of the text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 There is a confirmed tornado warning near Jackson, MS. This area might be the middle of the tornado action tomorrow (Louisiana to Mississippi) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Non-confirmed tornado warning at the LA/TX border. It's next to Toledo Bend Reservoir, so it's near me, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 10 Author Share Posted April 10 D1 hatched mod risk with an ongoing tor watch at 70/50 probs covering Baton Rouge and New Orleans SEL1 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 101 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 600 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A destabilizing airmass across the central Gulf Coast will support an increasing severe thunderstorm and tornado risk this morning into the midday. The tornado risk will likely maximize with any supercells that develop within the warm sector as the marine warm front advances northward. A squall line will move west to east across the area with a risk for damaging gusts and the tornado risk will likely focus with any sustained mesovortex or embedded supercell. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 95 miles northwest of Meridian MS to 45 miles west southwest of Boothville LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 99...WW 100... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Smith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 11 Author Share Posted April 11 Final day of this multi-day event brings an ENH risk with 10% Tor probs covering southeast OH and the edges of surrounding states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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