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Central Pa. Spring 2024


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Mild again today but we look cloudy with increasing shower chances for the rest of the work week before we clear out for the weekend. Some models paint another 1" to 2" of rain by late Friday.
Chester County records for today: High 88.9 at Nottingham (2013) / Low 15 Devault (1958) / Rain 2.05: Coatesville (1993) / Snow 9.7" (1894). Of note this snow was the start of a 2 day snowstorm that was the largest snowstorm in April history across Central PA and Chester County with 29" of snow falling at Coatesville..
The NWS PHL historical weather page details this April storm as follows.1894...(April 10-12) Md-DC-DE-PA-NJ-NY. Whirling snowstorm and gale winds,remarkable so late in Spring. Most severe for many years in MD, DE and DC with snow 20 to 24" deep; 12 to 31" in PA; 5 to 21" in NJ; and 6 to 30" in NY. Roads blocked."
image.png.535a584c8fe561ef1fac76d5336184b3.png
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CTP sums it up well. They don’t mention the 50 mph winds Thursday evening and 35-45 mph winds Fridays and Saturday. 
 
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POSSIBLE THURSDAY: At the surface, strengthening surface low pressure (SLP) should track northeast through the Ohio Valley on Thursday and occlude over the eastern Great Lakes on Friday. A surge of +2SD pwats (1-1.5 inches) driven by anomalous 850mb LLJ from the south ahead of the trailing cold front will maintain heavy rain risk and potential flooding scenario on Thursday which is highlighted by the D4 SLGT risk WPC ERO. Overall, ingredients look similar to - albeit more progressive - a modified synoptic heavy rain pattern signature. We added explicit mention of +RA into the wx grids this morning with elevated instability supportive of enhanced rain rates. If the trough can dig farther to the west and slow eastward progression, then the setup would become more favorable for heavy rain/flooding. Antecedent or preceding wet ground conditions and elevated streamflows will also be a key factor.
When do winds hit?

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I'm confused by the talk about potential flooding - WPC has our area getting about 1" of rain total over the next 7 days and CTP has me getting less than 1". What am I missing?

MU did say yesterday that he wasn't concerned about flooding whatsoever. 

Edit: WPC now has our area getting a total of .50" - 1.00"

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm confused by the talk about potential flooding - WPC has our area getting about 1" of rain total over the next 7 days and CTP has me getting less than 1". What am I missing?

MU did say yesterday that he wasn't concerned about flooding whatsoever. 

Edit: WPC now has our area getting a total of .50" - 1.00"

If it hits right we could’ve gotten 2-3” rain and with waterways so high it’d lead to some flooding. It probably won’t but right and scoot south and only give us .5-1” which would help alleviate any water issues. 

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40 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

SPC with a 30% probability for day 6 in Oklahoma City for the 15th. It sounds like Moore is about to get theirs again...

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That's an alarming day 6 probability outlook. Geesh. 

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That's an alarming day 6 probability outlook. Geesh. 
That alone is why I think the hammer is coming for someone in the OKC metro. It just seems like the SPC has this ability to sniff out monsters well in advance.

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8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Too humid

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55% is not too bad.  We are getting a strong SW influence from a low in KY and a large one in LA.   Lucky it is not worse.  This graphic should make you feel better for a couple days :-).  MR and LR GFS has us right on the border between nice, spring (with a few winter-like nights mixed in) weather and humid through much of April.  A battle.   CMC on the other hands makes a run for 90 late next week! 

 

image.thumb.png.92a88c1cb457ab1c2c4b6fb252cb4bd5.png

 

 

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55% is not too bad.  We are getting a strong SW influence from a low in KY and a large one in LA.   Lucky it is not worse.  This graphic should make you feel better for a couple days :-).  MR and LR GFS has us right on the border between nice, spring (with a few winter-like nights mixed in) weather and humid through much of April.  A battle.   CMC on the other hands makes a run for 90 late next week! 
 
image.thumb.png.92a88c1cb457ab1c2c4b6fb252cb4bd5.png
 
 
If we make a run to 90 next week I'm sacrifice @canderson pasty white Texas butt to the heat gods

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2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

If we make a run to 90 next week I'm sacrifice @canderson pasty white Texas butt to the heat gods

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Here is the panel (one of them) for verification.     I said late next week, I misread when parsing, it is early.  GFS is warm this day as well but not nearly this warm.

image.png.9faf21c801027e6d44cd7f58851e61db.png

 

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Here is the panel (one of them) for verification.     I said late next week, I misread when parsing, it is early.  GFS is warm this day as well but not nearly this warm.
image.png.9faf21c801027e6d44cd7f58851e61db.png
 
I will trade a day like this next week for 5 days of cut off low east winds in late June or early July

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