TimB Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Canadian is now on board with something that gets the job done, and GFS is still serviceable. We should have our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Signal for next weekend looking more solid. And as usual for us, the primary/850 strength and placement is the question. Hopefully we get a Dec 2020 result, where the primary 850 becomes muted enough not to flood the region with warm/dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said: Signal for next weekend looking more solid. And as usual for us, the primary/850 strength and placement is the question. Hopefully we get a Dec 2020 result, where the primary 850 becomes muted enough not to flood the region with warm/dry air. I like where we sit, GFS and Euro ops get the primary a bit far North I think right now but decent signal for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I like where we sit, GFS and Euro ops get the primary a bit far North I think right now but decent signal for sure. 12z Euro actually gives us two storms in that window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Yeah, Euro is giving us some love on the 7th and again on the 9th. Both about 8" storms. 9th is my birthday, so that'd be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Pretty long window for heavy snow risks. Maybe that snow drought breaks in a big way? Also, Euro is throwing down very cold weather after the two storms. Negatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Gfs is a crusher fwiw. It's gonna change but again the storm is there. I'd be happy with a 4-8 storm at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 26 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Gfs is a crusher fwiw. It's gonna change but again the storm is there. I'd be happy with a 4-8 storm at this point. Verbatim its more snow at one time than we've had in a year so Ill take it, but a clear signal for mixing. Like to see that primary jump a little sooner as we know the warm nose is often underestimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 10 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Verbatim its more snow at one time than we've had in a year so Ill take it, but a clear signal for mixing. Like to see that primary jump a little sooner as we know the warm nose is often underestimated. Looks like all the pieces are there, just got to get them to fit in right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/28/2023 at 12:01 PM, CoraopolisWx said: Temps look to level out over the next 4 days, but still a monster AN departure for Dec. 5th Dec. in the last 100 yrs to crack the 40F mark, however 3rd in only the last 9 years. SMH Well we all know why that is…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Unfortunately our climo in these situations is to mix or change over. Even if a model shows all snow it’s always a safe bet to move the mixing line 50-100 miles north or west. How many times a day out were there forecasts of all snow here and it mixes all the way up to the NY state line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 29 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Unfortunately our climo in these situations is to mix or change over. Even if a model shows all snow it’s always a safe bet to move the mixing line 50-100 miles north or west. How many times a day out were there forecasts of all snow here and it mixes all the way up to the NY state line We know, but at least there’s a signal. If the low can stay further south we’re in a better spot. Can’t work that out yet, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 35 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Well we all know why that is…. Get your bullshit politics out of here. Let's just discuss the weather. No reason to bring any of that up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 It's borderline a week away let's get this closer in time and worry about mixing and everything else. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 22 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Get your bullshit politics out of here. Let's just discuss the weather. No reason to bring any of that up. Agreed. Rain and mixing were a problem with big storms long before winter was warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 43 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Get your bullshit politics out of here. Let's just discuss the weather. No reason to bring any of that up. Climate change isn’t politics. Get out of here with that garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Climate change isn’t politics. Get out of here with that garbage. I think the point is there are other parts of the board specifically for that discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Climate change isn’t politics. Get out of here with that garbage. And weather isn't climate. Can we talk about the damn weather and the real possibility of a good snow? I mean damn, I knew even with nice things to discuss, someone would still have to bring it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Anyone getting snow? Radar showing some decent returns in some areas. Mostly rain imby so far today, but temp is starting to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12 minutes ago, Ahoff said: And weather isn't climate. Can we talk about the damn weather and the real possibility of a good snow? I mean damn, I knew even with nice things to discuss, someone would still have to bring it down. Exactly this. No reason to bring up climate change on our board. Let's just focus on the actual fact that our pattern is changing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Less mixing on the GFS 0z. More snow. Happy New Year and happy tracking this week. I said happy tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 23 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Less mixing on the GFS 0z. More snow. Happy New Year and happy tracking this week. I said happy tracking! Happy New Year!!! And much more tracking in 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 33 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Less mixing on the GFS 0z. More snow. Happy New Year and happy tracking this week. I said happy tracking! Yep, its an improvement. Happy New Year everyone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6z looks good as well. Honestly it's still so far out that I wouldn't get too invested in this yet. Tbh I think everybody here would take a few inches at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: 6z looks good as well. Honestly it's still so far out that I wouldn't get too invested in this yet. Tbh I think everybody here would take a few inches at this point. That’s kind of how I’m looking at this. It shows 12”, in my head I’m thinking, okay that’s a good 3-5”, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 31 minutes ago, Ahoff said: That’s kind of how I’m looking at this. It shows 12”, in my head I’m thinking, okay that’s a good 3-5”, lol. The Euro paints a picture where we don’t really win but get a “good enough” scenario (advisory level event) while DC jackpots. I’d still take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Also it’s snowing right now, which is a win even if it won’t amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 57 minutes ago, Ahoff said: That’s kind of how I’m looking at this. It shows 12”, in my head I’m thinking, okay that’s a good 3-5”, lol. I’d take anything that covers the grass at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 That narrow band of heavier snow some of the guidance was showing verified above 1050 ft. Nice covering on the grass here in Mt Lebanon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Yeah, wasn't expecting a coating at all. Nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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