Chinook Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On Monday, 11/20, we will have our first tornado threat for the late fall/winter of 2023-2024. The SPC has a slight risk for 11/20, and a marginal for tomorrow (11/19). I expect a fairly high level of convection late in the day on 11/20, possibly around 00z. I'm sure weather forecasters will monitoring the weather much earlier than 00z. 500mb winds will be about 65 knots in Louisiana. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 19, 2023 Author Share Posted November 19, 2023 SPC update today, at 1730z, with 10% hatched for tornadoes and 30% for a small area for severe winds, 15% for hail. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 00Z WRF-ARW would be...problematic, to say the least across LA/MS. Consistent with its previous (12Z) run. HRRR looks pretty rough too, has uptrended somewhat from earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Suggestion in SWODY 1 of a possible Moderate later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Suggestion in SWODY 1 of a possible Moderate later today. No upgrade at 1630z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 It is starting. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KPOE/standard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 It's been a pretty quiet second severe season compared to the last few years (looking at you 2021). If a supercell can avoid all the crowding later this afternoon there's definitely the threat of a strong tornado. Some solid ingredients in play across LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 21, 2023 Author Share Posted November 21, 2023 these are, I believe, the confirmed tornadoes today 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 these are, I believe, the confirmed tornadoes todayDefinitely had that great Dixie Alley hook to it, but as usual overcrowding of storms put a lid on things 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 29, 2023 Author Share Posted November 29, 2023 SPC has a day-3 outlook, that is now valid for just 48 hours in the future on Thursday night. There should be a good amount of convection down around Houston on Thursday. I don't know if this will be much more than a slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 Enhanced risk N part of HGX CWA, my house on the edge of Enhanced, Houston and S is Slight. Looking at 3k NAM and FV3, I don't think the 10% tornado probability area will verify. Shear and vorticity are there, instability is not that exciting. Maybe some cold season brief EF-0 and EF-1s. I guess we'll see if the Enhanced is still there at the mid day update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 29, 2023 Author Share Posted November 29, 2023 10 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Enhanced risk N part of HGX CWA, my house on the edge of Enhanced, Houston and S is Slight. Looking at 3k NAM and FV3, I don't think the 10% tornado probability area will verify. Shear and vorticity are there, instability is not that exciting. Maybe some cold season brief EF-0 and EF-1s. I guess we'll see if the Enhanced is still there at the mid day update. The models forecast many storms tomorrow. I like to see this, as I think it correlates with many storm reports in the real world. On the other hand, there could be many interfering storms and few tornadoes tomorrow. That's a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Looks like one of those very shear-dependent setups (rather than thermodynamic). Which is pretty typical this time of year. Especially with all these cold frontal intrusions of late all the way into the western/southern Gulf. I read in the earlier day 2 SPC discussion from today that they were thinking of downgrading the risk (I can see the valid reasoning why in their discussion details especially about the forecast rapid warming profile aloft from 850mb - 500mb layer). Though it's a bit surprising they even mentioned a possible downgrade especially for those typical areas of concern (Houston and eastward), only being around the Gulf coast during the cold season. 0Z Brownsville or BRO sounding this evening showing that there's already about 200 MUCAPE around 700mb, and 1.8 PW (versus 1.3 on this morning's 12Z) down there. So they're right that it's a pretty rapid airmass modification pattern ongoing today in the WAA regime with 40 kt veering southerly LLJ here on the western side of the Gulf ahead of that next shortwave out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 30, 2023 Author Share Posted November 30, 2023 the 12km NAM has just ripping 0-3km SRH values like a hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 30, 2023 Author Share Posted November 30, 2023 for what it's worth- some convection allowing models bring some distinctive updraft helicity tracks to the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Evidently looks like a pretty potent incoming shortwave into TX tomorrow. Even with very limited MUCAPE (although elevated mid-level LRs near 7) this evening, already got occasional CG lightning discharges going on at times in the activity/impulse moving NE through the Brownsville/lower TX coast area. Thought I heard one rumble up here too about an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 It's been a while since I've seen a severe weather setup bust as bad as this one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 8:57 PM, Powerball said: It's been a while since I've seen a severe weather setup bust as bad as this one. Models never really suggested enough instability for enhanced, but in fairness to SPC, they stated it was very conditional, and I think you'd rather have an enhanced that busts than a marginal with several EF2 or greater tornadoes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 GFS and Euro have rain, but it doesn't look that good for severe, but we are days away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 On 12/4/2023 at 4:59 AM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: GFS and Euro have rain, but it doesn't look that good for severe, but we are days away. This looks like it's not going to get too crazy (at least for the western part of the risk area), but the HRRR is sure intent on rolling an supercell through the De Queen, AR area late this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 PDS tornado warning north of Clarksville, TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 ongoing tornado 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 possible tornado path is 12 miles already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 large debris signature near Guthrie Kentucky, probably in a rural area right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 it keeps going 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 The debris signature isn't showing up anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 50 mile mesocylone track - how long was the tornado? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 new confirmed tornado here, about 24 miles west of Nashville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 tornado debris for sure south of Ashland City now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 tornado reported near Springfield, Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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