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Severe Threats: Winter 2023-2024


Chinook
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On Monday, 11/20, we will have our first tornado threat for the late fall/winter of 2023-2024. The SPC has a slight risk for 11/20, and a marginal for tomorrow (11/19). I expect a fairly high level of convection late in the day on 11/20, possibly around 00z. I'm sure weather forecasters will monitoring the weather much earlier than 00z. 500mb winds will be about 65 knots in Louisiana.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Enhanced risk N part of HGX CWA, my house on the edge of Enhanced, Houston and S is Slight.  Looking at 3k NAM and FV3, I don't think the 10% tornado probability area will verify.  Shear and vorticity are there, instability is not that exciting.  Maybe some cold season brief EF-0 and EF-1s.  I guess we'll see if the Enhanced is still there at the mid day update.

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10 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Enhanced risk N part of HGX CWA, my house on the edge of Enhanced, Houston and S is Slight.  Looking at 3k NAM and FV3, I don't think the 10% tornado probability area will verify.  Shear and vorticity are there, instability is not that exciting.  Maybe some cold season brief EF-0 and EF-1s.  I guess we'll see if the Enhanced is still there at the mid day update.

The models forecast many storms tomorrow. I like to see this, as I think it correlates with many storm reports in the real world. On the other hand, there could be many interfering storms and few tornadoes tomorrow. That's a possibility.

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Looks like one of those very shear-dependent setups (rather than thermodynamic). Which is pretty typical this time of year. Especially with all these cold frontal intrusions of late all the way into the western/southern Gulf.

I read in the earlier day 2 SPC discussion from today that they were thinking of downgrading the risk (I can see the valid reasoning why in their discussion details especially about the forecast rapid warming profile aloft from 850mb - 500mb layer). Though it's a bit surprising they even mentioned a possible downgrade especially for those typical areas of concern (Houston and eastward), only being around the Gulf coast during the cold season.

0Z Brownsville or BRO sounding this evening showing that there's already about 200 MUCAPE around 700mb, and 1.8 PW (versus 1.3 on this morning's 12Z) down there. So they're right that it's a pretty rapid airmass modification pattern ongoing today in the WAA regime with 40 kt veering southerly LLJ here on the western side of the Gulf ahead of that next shortwave out west.

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Evidently looks like a pretty potent incoming shortwave into TX tomorrow. Even with very limited MUCAPE (although elevated mid-level LRs near 7) this evening, already got occasional CG lightning discharges going on at times in the activity/impulse moving NE through the Brownsville/lower TX coast area. Thought I heard one rumble up here too about an hour ago.

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On 11/30/2023 at 8:57 PM, Powerball said:

It's been a while since I've seen a severe weather setup bust as bad as this one.

image.png.686dc25c0f849770989d326656c391af.png

 

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Models never really suggested enough instability for enhanced, but in fairness to SPC, they stated it was very conditional, and I think you'd rather have an enhanced that busts than a marginal with several EF2 or greater tornadoes.

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On 12/4/2023 at 4:59 AM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

GFS and Euro have rain, but it doesn't look that good for severe, but we are days away.

This looks like it's not going to get too crazy (at least for the western part of the risk area), but the HRRR is sure intent on rolling an supercell through the De Queen, AR area late this evening.

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