tigersaint11 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 32 and moderate snow in Hanover...elevated surfaces have a dusting....yard is getting there too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 It’s been this way for a long time, but we can see how the short term models that had the snow missing to the north were absolutely wrong even 6z this morning. Nothing is perfect but still the euro and the GFS most reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15, 2024 Author Share Posted January 15, 2024 12 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: It’s been this way for a long time, but we can see how the short term models that had the snow missing to the north were absolutely wrong even 6z this morning. Nothing is perfect but still the euro and the GFS most reliable. I was just about to mention that the GFS certainly had a better handle on this band, while others had it farther north, and most of the Richmond area was getting fringed. The GFS had RIC a bit too cold, though, and had RIC down to 27°F at 7am when it was only 33°F at the time. Every event is different. In the big storms, often, the short-range models can pick up on warm air aloft that the bigger models don't pick up as well. The February 14-18, 2003 (PD II) storm comes to mind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blzbba Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Pretty snow with big flakes and some (occasional sleet mixing) for about an hour now in Chesterfield, sticking on the grass. Better than last year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Decent coating so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15, 2024 Author Share Posted January 15, 2024 35 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Everyone north of the yellow should be all snow. Unfortunately, the yellow is advancing northward, so sleet will likely start mixing back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Hopefully this band stalls a bit before pulling north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15, 2024 Author Share Posted January 15, 2024 1 hour ago, mikeeng92 said: Hopefully this band stalls a bit before pulling north. Yes, that would be great if it stayed long enough to give everyone at least an inch or two. Maybe all it takes is another hour at these rates. KRIC actually reached freezing with moderate snow about 30 mins ago, and no model, at least since 00z, has had it this cold this late in the day. Remember the HRRR sounding I posted? At some point, you just have to nowcast and not look at the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 18z NAM giving about an inch or so over the next couple hours- fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 A little sleet mixing in with snow now. Just got back to Henrico 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Fully over to sleet in the Fan near VCU. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaGirl Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Switched over to sleet in Tuckahoe, West End Richmond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Still coming down decent and all snow in Ashland. Driveway and sidewalk starting to cave a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Looks like that maybe it for accumulating snow here.. At least we got a decent dusting … pos freezing rain in early morning hours… Travel still could be interesting in the morning at least on the back roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Hoping that band south of Roanoke and Lynchburg doesn’t move too far north and we can get some of that. May be pushing north too quickly though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Spoke to soon- sleet mixed in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Yes that band is booking north. It's gone within the next hour, at least city and SE. Remember to take the model that has the most snow divided by half then divide it by 1/3 and that's the high end of the total. So in this case a trace to 2 in would be the max in the Richmond area. That looks like it's going to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 back to snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Big last burst started to cave the roads right as this starts to pull away .. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Same on both- back to all snow and coming down pretty good atm - probably sitting at 1.25” to 1.5” on the surfaces that accumulated first 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 On the bright side, it has already snowed more this winter than last—not that that was a high bar or anything. You can only go up from nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Really coming down again in the city! It’s gorgeous out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Heavy Snow in Henrico, Roads starting to cave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Seems like the snow band hasn’t moved north much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Seems like the snow band hasn’t moved north much Creeping now. That's great! Hopefully you guys pull out another inch or two before it's over. Not bad! Weekend thing isn't done yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15, 2024 Author Share Posted January 15, 2024 Wakefield extended the advisory until 8am. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 349 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 VAZ060-061-068-069-512-513-515-516-160500- /O.EXT.KAKQ.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240116T1300Z/ Prince Edward-Cumberland-Amelia-Powhatan-Eastern Hanover- Western Chesterfield- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Including the cities of Farmville, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Earls, Mannboro, Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, Mechanicsville, Bon Air, Midlothian, Richmond, and Sandston 349 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Portions of central Virginia. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. For the latest road conditions in Virginia or Maryland, please call 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15, 2024 Author Share Posted January 15, 2024 1 hour ago, SoCoWx said: On the bright side, it has already snowed more this winter than last—not that that was a high bar or anything. You can only go up from nothing. I agree. I really hope this is not it for the winter. It's too bad the band didn't set up a bit farther south before moving north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Getting close to 2 inches here in Glen Allen 295 /Staples breaks the streak at least 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15, 2024 Author Share Posted January 15, 2024 GFS and Euro maintain the idea of an additional snow chance on Friday during the day, with the GFS more aggressive with its depiction. The 18Z GFS had a 12-15-hour snow window on Friday from 7am to 10pm. Temperatures look to be around 31-34°F around Richmond for most of the event but fall as the low deepens offshore to our NE and draws in colder air. Obviously, we are still a few days away, and the details could change, but based on what I mentioned earlier, this is not looking to be a big event. Also, Hampton Roads and NE NC could see some, too, @Stormpc, @ldub23, @Topher, et. al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15, 2024 Author Share Posted January 15, 2024 13 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said: Getting close to 2 inches here in Glen Allen 295 /Staples breaks the streak at least Nice! You were lucky to be in the right spot with how the band set up. RIC officially came in at 0.5", so unless some miracle happens and another half-inch falls between now and midnight, the streak with less than 1.0" continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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