Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,612
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    RyRyB
    Newest Member
    RyRyB
    Joined

Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion


RIC Airport
 Share

Recommended Posts

More rain here. Maybe a flurry  later but Alaska  has  gone  into the freezer so a  big  warm-up is  coming  here.

 

This  is fairbanks and they are way below  normal. We  need a  real pattern change  if anything is going to happen in Feb

 

 

Today
Flurries after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near -9. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Tonight
Flurries. Partly cloudy, with a low around -22. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph after midnight.
Saturday
Flurries. Mostly sunny, with a high near -20. Wind chill values as low as -45. Northeast wind around 10 mph.
Saturday Night
Flurries before 9pm. Mostly clear, with a low around -33. Wind chill values as low as -50. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near -32. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning.
Sunday Night
Patchy freezing fog after 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around -41.
Monday
Patchy freezing fog before 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near -32.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around -37.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near -31.
Tuesday Night
A slight chance of snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -33.
Wednesday
A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near -27.
Wednesday Night
A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -38.
Thursday
A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near -30.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

got a very light dusting in my part of Glen Allen ...  could get another flurry/ snow shower later but wouldnt count on anything more then that...

Nice! It looks like there is a redevelopment to the north. It's just a matter of how far south it gets, but there is a good chance of some snow showers, it's just that not everyone will see them. 

1.jpg

 

Wakefield has also mentioned the afternoon snow shower chance. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

More rain here. Maybe a flurry  later but Alaska  has  gone  into the freezer so a  big  warm-up is  coming  here.

This  is fairbanks and they are way below  normal. We  need a  real pattern change  if anything is going to happen in Feb

 

It was expected and also lined up with what the ensembles have shown. The pattern is changing, and this next one will likely last about 3 weeks before it improves again. Hopefully, it's more favorable for us before we run out of time. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Nice! It looks like there is a redevelopment to the north. It's just a matter of how far south it gets, but there is a good chance of some snow showers, it's just that not everyone will see them. 

1.jpgWakefield has also mentioned the afternoon snow shower chance. 

Per radar, that little appendage down the peninsula looks like it's starting to develop. The models have had that arm trailing the exiting storm for several runs now. I suspect there will be some convective snow showers with grauple moving from Northwest to Southeast across the area this afternoon. Won't get down to me but maybe Newport News can get in on some of the goods.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

Snow flurry downtown.  I think I'll wet my pants

Petition · Replace Joe Buck with Bob Uecker for World Series broadcasts ·  Change.org

It made it in the official ob, too!

a.jpg.11d272983dad16ef4f73dc6cbe7168d2.jpg

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

Per radar, that little appendage down the peninsula looks like it's starting to develop. The models have had that arm trailing the exiting storm for several runs now. I suspect there will be some convective snow showers with grauple moving from Northwest to Southeast across the area this afternoon. Won't get down to me but maybe Newport News can get in on some of the goods.

It's moving SE near Williamsburg and will be across Hampton Roads, soon. Actually, I'd say the 3K NAM I posted last night did pretty well today. 

 

b.thumb.jpg.ceba45320ce2ee61bcfd14609a699b3e.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Looks like  its  moving  more east than se. 

Yeah, seems to have waned some, too. But we won't escape the cold. Below are the Euro temps for 3pm tomorrow. Almost all stations are below freezing. 

3pm.thumb.png.e2243ce72a47c250521ffe837ce958df.png

 

But, if the Euro is correct, we are torching a week later with widespread 70s next Saturday at 1pm. This pattern change will be brutal, hopefully, we don't verify that warm and we get back to cold and snow. We get 70°F+ most of the year. ;)

Saturday.thumb.png.019c6532e0180afc432434613e5dae50.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Yeah, seems to have waned some, too. But we won't escape the cold. Below are the Euro temps for 3pm tomorrow. Almost all stations are below freezing. 

3pm.thumb.png.e2243ce72a47c250521ffe837ce958df.png

 

But, if the Euro is correct, we are torching a week later with widespread 70s next Saturday at 1pm. This pattern change will be brutal, hopefully, we don't verify that warm and we get back to cold and snow. We get 70°F+ most of the year. ;)

Saturday.thumb.png.019c6532e0180afc432434613e5dae50.png

With Alaska so brutally  cold then we will have to have summer  in Feb. Im going to make a really  bold  prediction. Late  march thu most  of  may will be well below  normal with alot  of rain and the  low tracks will be  perfect for  snowstorms  if  it were jan/feb. 

 

Future radar  shows  no snow flurry  here today

 

https://www.13newsnow.com/radar

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can bet on '70s next weekend no doubt. Until then we will enjoy winter until Tuesday. Some Echoes breaking out across North Central North Carolina/So Va. Not sure if that's in response to the H5 pass or interaction with the strengthening low and sunshine instability. I have low 50s at the house. That ain't going to make snow!!!

  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, ldub23 said:

06 GFS not as  bleak as earlier runs

The other day in this post, I mentioned how some of the ensembles were showing a snow threat in the last couple of days of the month and how, after next week's ridge, a trough was building back into the east after about 1/27. It's something to monitor, but at the very least, we get sharply colder for a couple of days before higher heights begin building back into the east. It's beyond that where things become uncertain as the pattern continues to reshuffle. 

Also, the GFS is trending slightly cooler with next week's temperatures. There looks to be rain opportunities from about Wednesday through Sunday. The timing of the clouds, rain, and passage of the front next weekend will determine whether there can be widespread low 70s or just mid-upper 60s, especially for Richmond and points north and west, as C VA could be influenced by what looks to be a CAD signature for part of that stretch.

Below are the 1pm temperatures for next Wednesday through Saturday on today's 12Z GFS.

wednesday.thumb.png.44a35ee9b537204ab2f605bf10378e71.png

friday.thumb.png.2697040a6d20102eb220a3fa796d5970.png

Thursday.thumb.png.f209b0a3d521f2da5b26966af896f3e8.pngSaturday.thumb.png.7f0d15cff38d078369808b82ac0ee822.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unless somehow that shortwave around the 28th-1st turns into something (which is a long shot for us this far south), it's still looking like ~2/10 and later for any significant chance of snow opportunities. 

Below are the H5 maps from today's 12Z GEFS (hour 384) and EPS (hour 360). After the storm around the 28th-1st moves away, a couple days of cold follow it before there is ridging building back into the east, and we moderate. 

384.thumb.png.ac4dd1555f56995ccc3b79a2ca16edd1.png360.thumb.png.4019c9664c217d3172ac4b53288ff20a.png

 

_______________________________________________________________________________

Today's Euro weeklies show the change around the 10th. Here is the look on 10 FEB as the trough is beginning to move back toward the east coast with increasing heights in the EPO, AO, NAO domains. The only teleconnection that doesn't look great continues to be the PNA (lack of a west ridge), but the euro weeklies do show it neutral to slightly positive.

FEB 10th

10th.thumb.png.2c8684f8fd9a5f5ebcb9108c675933e7.png

FEB 15th

15th.thumb.png.81f13d94dff334a20c0eeaf6bcb8527c.png

FEB 20th

20th.thumb.png.71d59e30654d39fb1c1637f14d64b656.png

FEB 25th

25th.thumb.png.1683cc431e0fa213221457272c2aa145.png

MAR 1st

1st.thumb.png.ca942289610a6be39db4a48ef7a79531.png

MAR 6th

6th.thumb.png.18a6ddbd1284dbebbb44cd11588a65d2.png

_______________________________________________________________________________

After the 10th is when the snowfall mean begins to increase, with the period from about the 15th to March 1st being the highest. 

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-ma-snow_46day-9683200.thumb.png.236d024c1f94c336699f6804721a107a.png

_______________________________________________________________________________

The below snow charts take longer to update, but these are from the run two days ago, and you can see snow hits begin to increase in earnest after about the 10/12th at Richmond and Norfolk.

download.thumb.png.d0cf8e910a0baecee79759407f1200a0.png

ORF.thumb.png.61dae1379d26140473c8ecb368dca840.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Unless somehow that shortwave around the 28th-1st turns into something (which is a long shot for us this far south), it's still looking like ~2/10 and later for any significant chance of snow opportunities. 

Below are the H5 maps from today's 12Z GEFS (hour 384) and EPS (hour 360). After the storm around the 28th-1st moves away, a couple days of cold follow it before there is ridging building back into the east, and we moderate. 

384.thumb.png.ac4dd1555f56995ccc3b79a2ca16edd1.png360.thumb.png.4019c9664c217d3172ac4b53288ff20a.png

 

_______________________________________________________________________________

Today's Euro weeklies show the change around the 10th. Here is the look on 10 FEB as the trough is beginning to move back toward the east coast with increasing heights in the EPO, AO, NAO domains. The only teleconnection that doesn't look great continues to be the PNA (lack of a west ridge), but the euro weeklies do show it neutral to slightly positive.

FEB 10th

10th.thumb.png.2c8684f8fd9a5f5ebcb9108c675933e7.png

FEB 15th

15th.thumb.png.81f13d94dff334a20c0eeaf6bcb8527c.png

FEB 20th

20th.thumb.png.71d59e30654d39fb1c1637f14d64b656.png

FEB 25th

25th.thumb.png.1683cc431e0fa213221457272c2aa145.png

MAR 1st

1st.thumb.png.ca942289610a6be39db4a48ef7a79531.png

MAR 6th

6th.thumb.png.18a6ddbd1284dbebbb44cd11588a65d2.png

_______________________________________________________________________________

After the 10th is when the snowfall mean begins to increase, with the period from about the 15th to March 1st being the highest. 

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-ma-snow_46day-9683200.thumb.png.236d024c1f94c336699f6804721a107a.png

_______________________________________________________________________________

The snow below snow charts take longer to update, but these are from the run two days ago, and you can see snow hits begin to increase in earnest after about the 10/12th at Richmond and Norfolk.

download.thumb.png.d0cf8e910a0baecee79759407f1200a0.png

ORF.thumb.png.61dae1379d26140473c8ecb368dca840.png

We can still hope

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, ldub23 said:

We can still hope

The end of the 18Z GEFS indicates an earlier change. Let's hope there is an earlier shift. Also, one ensemble member obliterated NC and SE VA from the 4th to the 5th of February with 14" of snow falling at Norfolk and 18" at Elizabeth City. Only one member, but it could be a sign we could be back in the game sooner than we think. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-7156000.thumb.png.227aa6ac9565fb57cdfec0b2ef61299f.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel-7134400.thumb.png.ad752333e80f95b00464edccf4aafc54.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

The end of the 18Z GEFS indicates an earlier change. Let's hope there is an earlier shift. Also, one ensemble member obliterated NC and SE VA from the 4th to the 5th of February with 14" of snow falling at Norfolk and 18" at Elizabeth City. Only one member, but it could be a sign we could be back in the game sooner than we think. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-7156000.thumb.png.227aa6ac9565fb57cdfec0b2ef61299f.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel-7134400.thumb.png.ad752333e80f95b00464edccf4aafc54.png

I wish that was right. On the  other  hand these are the  temps at  384hrs at  midnight i think. Very warm. Feb 07 is when normals start rising. 

 

 

 

gfs_T2m_us_65.png

 

 

The  low that did  have a  little  promise as some  snow  is  now  just way too warm

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

I wish that was right. On the  other  hand these are the  temps at  384hrs at  midnight i think. Very warm. Feb 07 is when normals start rising. 

The  low that did  have a  little  promise as some  snow  is  now  just way too warm.

I posted that only to increase hope, not to say I genuinely believed it. Plus, as was shown, only one member had it, while others were warm and rainy. Also, later runs of the GEFS took it away, so it's not surprising the operational GFS you posted didnt match that one snowy member from yesterday's 18Z GEFS. So, as I've shared with you, look at the ensembles and identify trends rather than posting the 384-hour operational GFS and taking it as gospel. 

I highlighted earlier that the pattern should become more favorable as we progress in February, particularly after about February 10th, based on what I see now. But, it's beyond that, probably mid to late February into early March when it looked the best. Until I begin seeing the ensembles trend earlier, that's what I'll be sticking to. And while it's past peak climate, it can still snow in our region in late February and early March.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

0Z Temps

18z

It looks to be a fairly potent shot of cold. It also tried to bring snow with the passage of the cold front on the 31st. 

a.thumb.png.916e0f9abdab791a92c148222cca1397.pngb.thumb.png.cbc9cd4463100142e20703687b77aaec.png

Then ridging returns to the east, and we moderate for at least several days, but it probably won't be as mild as what we'll see later this week. But, even the warm-up in early February looks temporary because the pattern is reshuffling into what looks to be something more favorable somewhere around the 10th and later. This window could still shift to the left or right, but something more wintery for the east is what most long-range models agree on. Hopefully this time our area can score.

v.thumb.png.03acf9088fab476e264e04b05b4cd98d.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like models are trying to Tamp down the 14-day warm up. Maybe a back door front later this weekend followed by normal temperatures. Doesn't look as toasty as it did two days ago that's for sure. All very good steps going forward. Cold trying to build back into Eastern Canada.  

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Doesn't exactly jive with how the last 24 hours of the GFS depicted the first week of February, but the updated Euro weeklies continued to paint the theme of a warm early February followed by a cold 2nd half of the month and into March, which you can see in the animation below. 

Also, the snow mean ticked up from the other day. Although there are still some shutouts, quite a few members have > 10" of snow at RIC, some even around 20"+, through the period ending March 8th. There are more shutouts for Norfolk and Elizabeth City, but there still appears to be some hope. 

964177807_tempanimation.thumb.gif.b412d9abdd52db4d9816bc7a3b6c3058.gif

PRECIP.thumb.png.3db1bd8fcbb4b642d621fb9ed9a9d281.png

710501404_SNOWMEAN.thumb.png.1444132fa13acf5b36345e6b92392157.png

RIC.thumb.png.df2ad995c211cf2db9a6af6e5eda5132.pngORF.thumb.png.f195597c724564f816e8c40eba2af08a.pngECG.thumb.png.1b2d07edebb525e0cbeb5f2ae34d0963.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So, looking at the temperatures on the 18z GFS ensembles, it's still a pretty mild look through the first seven days of February. Yes, we cool down after this weekend, but it's only for a few days before we begin a slight moderation again. It's not a torch, but it still would yield slightly positive departures from the average. So, today's Euro weeklies are on par with expectations that the 9th to 15th is (hopefully) the transition period to a colder pattern with legitimate snow chances. 

 

download.png.cfd71e58978947628401dc26b9d2f231.png

1138965750_download(1).png.50232d0ec08f677c583a68e16469214e.png

883750089_download(2).png.30c824fd25c71af686ade2c946a07d3d.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

So, looking at the temperatures on the 18z GFS ensembles, it's still a pretty mild look through the first seven days of February. Yes, we cool down after this weekend, but it's only for a few days before we begin a slight moderation again. It's not a torch, but it still would yield slightly positive departures from the average. So, today's Euro weeklies are on par with expectations that the 9th to 15th is (hopefully) the transition period to a colder pattern with legitimate snow chances. 

 

download.png.cfd71e58978947628401dc26b9d2f231.png

1138965750_download(1).png.50232d0ec08f677c583a68e16469214e.png

883750089_download(2).png.30c824fd25c71af686ade2c946a07d3d.png

Agreed,  I never really expected much before Feb 15th.  All the guidance has been around 8-15th for the transition to occur .  No can kicking at least.  NAO/AO  is getting ready to tank from positive and should be negative by early Feb.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My fear every year living down here is there's never a cold enough stretch to totally kill the bugs. These last 6 days should do the trick. Anything else after this for me down on the coast is gravy. As you see my bar is very very low. Not many wish for a cold enough winter period to kill bugs. Any snow is a bonus. Looks like mid-February through mid-march will be active. March these days is much better than December and we can now start talking about severe season soon. I know. Depressing to many. Nothing scientific in my post. Obviously we are in the doldrums of midwinter with not much going on for at least 10 days.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

My fear every year living down here is there's never a cold enough stretch to totally kill the bugs. These last 6 days should do the trick. Anything else after this for me down on the coast is gravy. As you see my bar is very very low. Not many wish for a cold enough winter period to kill bugs. Any snow is a bonus. Looks like mid-February through mid-march will be active. March these days is much better than December and we can now start talking about severe season soon. I know. Depressing to many. Nothing scientific in my post. Obviously we are in the doldrums of midwinter with not much going on for at least 10 days.

I also suspect it was cold enough to kill them off, which I agree is a good thing. It will certainly feel like spring this week and it will turn humid, too! Really hoping we can score in February and March with some good cold and snow, it's been disappointing for our area and it sucks we were so close to seeing decent snow last week. 

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

GFS has 2 possibiities but they both die out before they get here.

198

360

For hour 198, while there's been a few operational GFS runs showing snow around the 31st, I would not bet on it with the set up. Also, it doesn't have ensemble support nor has the Euro/EPS consistently supported it.

2020019679_31stens.thumb.webp.e3e3f99c23264a98b25d9bf77c09f28a.webp

 

@ldub23, I like this set up between hour 348 and 360 on the 6Z GFS. There is a strong high over the Great Lakes with moisture overrunning to the south. The problem I see right now is, it's way out there (300+ hours), it's also a completely new scenario from the 00Z run, which you can see in the 3rd and 4th map below, and it did not have ensemble support (they look rainy). Obviously we hope later runs have this set up, but we need more consistency before we take it seriously.

a.thumb.png.44cb01ed07c1607764ba44ade8af616c.png

 

b.thumb.webp.8bc744095d11939f656a390a88c63a5f.webp

 

These are those two maps from the 00z GFS, there is hardly any cold air east of the Rockies and completely different set up from 6z GFS.

a1.thumb.webp.2a4a44f135ce3dac27852e842cc572c3.webp

b1.thumb.webp.503a45dccceb634a3e1c3a29ed86cf89.webp

 

Also, there was no ensemble support on this morning 6z GEFS. But, this is meaningless with it being so far out. 

 

1238852648_360ens.thumb.webp.d8b3aa770982249e23367a428e0da931.webp

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...