Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[benjammin]

^Apparently not until 0Z.

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[RVASnowLover]

GEFS says hold up! More amped and has more mixing 

[Stormpc]

16 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

who the heck knows.  18z gfs.  doesn’t phase the Baja low as much 

Need to run that map again at 120 hr to capture the backside snows for Hampton Roads

[Conway7305]

I’m not ruling out a s shift again.  Who knows.

BTW.  Here are the 12z Ukmet ensembles

 

 

[jlewis1111]

For clarity sake

Data ingest is ONGOING and will be available for the 00z runs TONIGHT (00z 1/22)

There has been NO RECON DATA FOR TODAY (1/21). 

 

From MA forum. Game time tonight. We should get a real sense if there is a north trend or this was just a blip

[RVASnowLover]

It will be interesting to see if the models change any once more data from aircraft has been ingested into it mainly the handle of Baja and then northern stream 

[Ephesians2]

Euro is a slight bump north... :/

[Conway7305]

2 inches of front end snow then Ice storm per 18z Euro .  It’s been trending N every single run…:/

I honestly feel like when this is all said and done. Southern PA is gonna be mixing and we’re gonna end up being mostly rain. You can’t discount the trends here.  Sorry to be a downer.  Have no clue what GFS sees…..lol 

I will stay up for the 0Z to see if the new data will change things

[benjammin]

The weather doesn't care what I want, but I'm fond of heat and electricity. I'll gladly take the sleet bomb over this.

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[Rvarookie]

Bet that front end is under done. We least over perform and then underperform that’s what we do 

[RVASnowLover]

30 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

2 inches of front end snow then Ice storm per 18z Euro .  It’s been trending N every single run…:/

I honestly feel like when this is all said and done. Southern PA is gonna be mixing and we’re gonna end up being mostly rain. You can’t discount the trends here.  Sorry to be a downer.  Have no clue what GFS sees…..lol 

I will stay up for the 0Z to see if the new data will change things

It’s handling of the Baja and phasing. Also interaction with the NS.

[Conway7305]

hmmmmm. this is interesting with 18z AIFS euro ensembles. Paints a completely different picture.  I have no clue as to the reliability on the AIFS or their  ensembles, but they both look great.

[wasnow215]

11 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

hmmmmm. this is interesting with 18z AIFS euro ensembles. Paints a completely different picture.  I have no clue as to the reliability on the AIFS or their  ensembles, but they both look great.

It's actually had a good verification score from things I was reading in the main thread. Always easier to be negative than positive but I still don't think a final solution has been settled. Still 72 hours out.

[mikeeng92]

Yea they're legit. Nice to see them more in line with the GFS.

 

[wasnow215]

Ukie, AIFS, GFS in our snow corner lol. At least there's a few.

[Ephesians2]

NAM is really amped and pushes the mix line north fast. To be fair its the NAM at range...

 

(However, it's only slightly worse than 18z)

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

NAM is really amped and pushes the mix line north fast. To be fair its the NAM at range...

 

(However, it's only slightly worse than 18z)

Yep-Needs til Saturday evening to be in its wheelhouse 

[chris624wx]

00z GFS was not great for most of us...

[benjammin]

00z GFS was not great for most of us...

Based on what? Where are you located?

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[Conway7305]

Still has us at 9-11” before changeover in RVA

[Rvarookie]

Looks solid as hell. Typical big one thump and mix. We do well overnight all the time 

[Conway7305]

Any variations will dramatically lower or add accumulations.  Were still ok 

[chris624wx]

Ohh okay. Sorry y'all. Yeah, not great for us on the coast. 

[benjammin]

Ohh okay. Sorry y'all. Yeah, not great for us on the coast. 

Unless you're on the border of North Carolina, what were you hoping for?

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[chris624wx]

3 minutes ago, benjammin said:

Unless you're on the border of North Carolina, what were you hoping for?

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More hours before changing over. And no hours with rain. But alas. 

[benjammin]

More hours before changing over. And no hours with rain. But alas. 

Fair enough.

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[Rvarookie]

12 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

More hours before changing over. And no hours with rain. But alas. 

Could be chase worthy 

[chris624wx]

The next threat looks interesting, at least. Don't know if i have it in me for another heartbreak though haha 

[overcautionisbad]

Ice is pretty upsetting honestly. It's annoying reading the other thread where someone is just so happy they are in jackpot. Ice in my area near RVA is truly concerning. Trees weighed down. Smh

 

Question though. GFS and UK still look okay, but is the snowfall total counting sleet wrongly as snowfall on pivotal?

 

 

The thing is what is the Euro going to say on this next run. I dont believe GFS at all

[chris624wx]

12 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

Ice is pretty upsetting honestly. It's annoying reading the other thread where someone is just so happy they are in jackpot. Ice in my area near RVA is truly concerning. Trees weighed down. Smh

 

Question though. GFS and UK still look okay, but is the snowfall total counting sleet wrongly as snowfall on pivotal?

 

 

The thing is what is the Euro going to say on this next run. I dont believe GFS at all

Kuchera is going to be your best estimate, but even that uses an assumption. So it's not going to be completely accurate.