Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[benjammin]

^Apparently not until 0Z.

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[RVASnowLover]

GEFS says hold up! More amped and has more mixing 

[Stormpc]

16 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

who the heck knows.  18z gfs.  doesn’t phase the Baja low as much 

Need to run that map again at 120 hr to capture the backside snows for Hampton Roads

[Conway7305]

I’m not ruling out a s shift again.  Who knows.

BTW.  Here are the 12z Ukmet ensembles

 

 

[jlewis1111]

For clarity sake

Data ingest is ONGOING and will be available for the 00z runs TONIGHT (00z 1/22)

There has been NO RECON DATA FOR TODAY (1/21). 

 

From MA forum. Game time tonight. We should get a real sense if there is a north trend or this was just a blip

[RVASnowLover]

It will be interesting to see if the models change any once more data from aircraft has been ingested into it mainly the handle of Baja and then northern stream 

[Ephesians2]

Euro is a slight bump north... :/

[Conway7305]

2 inches of front end snow then Ice storm per 18z Euro .  It’s been trending N every single run…:/

I honestly feel like when this is all said and done. Southern PA is gonna be mixing and we’re gonna end up being mostly rain. You can’t discount the trends here.  Sorry to be a downer.  Have no clue what GFS sees…..lol 

I will stay up for the 0Z to see if the new data will change things

[benjammin]

The weather doesn't care what I want, but I'm fond of heat and electricity. I'll gladly take the sleet bomb over this.

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[Rvarookie]

Bet that front end is under done. We least over perform and then underperform that’s what we do 

[RVASnowLover]

30 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

2 inches of front end snow then Ice storm per 18z Euro .  It’s been trending N every single run…:/

I honestly feel like when this is all said and done. Southern PA is gonna be mixing and we’re gonna end up being mostly rain. You can’t discount the trends here.  Sorry to be a downer.  Have no clue what GFS sees…..lol 

I will stay up for the 0Z to see if the new data will change things

It’s handling of the Baja and phasing. Also interaction with the NS.

[Conway7305]

hmmmmm. this is interesting with 18z AIFS euro ensembles. Paints a completely different picture.  I have no clue as to the reliability on the AIFS or their  ensembles, but they both look great.