Pittsburgh/Western PA Fall 2023 Discussion

[Rd9108]

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Been trending that direction lately.  Too bad it’s still so early.

At the bare minimum it would appear that we are entering a colder pattern. Let's establish the pattern and then see what happens with the snow.

[Ahoff]

7 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

At the bare minimum it would appear that we are entering a colder pattern. Let's establish the pattern and then see what happens with the snow.

Exactly.

Currently, though it is very desert like right now.

[TheClimateChanger]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
728 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078-152300-
Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-
Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana-Higher Elevations of Indiana-
Including the cities of Sharon, Hermitage, Grove City, Oil City,
Franklin, Tionesta, New Castle, Ellwood City, Butler, Clarion,
Punxsutawney, Brookville, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge,
Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Kittanning, Ford City, Washington,
Canonsburg, Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington,
Lower Burrell, Latrobe, Monessen, Ligonier, Donegal, Uniontown,
Champion, Ohiopyle, Indiana, and Armagh
728 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

...ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...

A combination of dry and windy conditions this afternoon will
create an elevated risk of wildfire spread across western
Pennsylvania, including Allegheny National Forest. Minimum
relative humidity values will range from 20 to 30 percent
accompanied by wind gusts between 15 and 20 mph.

Residents are urged to exercise caution if handling any potential
ignition sources, such as machinery, cigarettes, or matches. If
dry grasses and tree litter begin to burn, the fire will have the
potential to spread rapidly.

For more information about wildfire danger and wildfire
prevention and education, please visit the Pennsylvania Department
of Conservation and Natural Resources website at
http://dcnr.pa.gov/Communities/Wildfire.

$$

TC

[Ahoff]

Dropped to 28 this morning, will be wild that it will rise nearly 40 degrees today, just due to dry conditions and not a front.

[TheClimateChanger]

The US Department of Agriculture released an update to its plant hardiness zone map this morning. Shows portions of southwest Pennsylvania, along the Monongahela and Ohio Rivers, including downtown Pittsburgh, as Zone 7A for the first time. This corresponds to an average annual minimum temperature of 0 to 5F. The rest of southwest Pennsylvania was bumped to Zone 6B, corresponding to an average annual minimum temperature of -5 to 0F.

USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map | USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map

[TimB]

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Dropped to 28 this morning, will be wild that it will rise nearly 40 degrees today, just due to dry conditions and not a front.

Already into the 60s.

[Ahoff]

Just out of curiosity, why would our region be removed from the abnormally dry category on the US Drought monitor?  Over the last week we've had nearly no rain and really the last three weeks we've had nearly none.  How could we fall out of abnormally dry, especially with fire weather conditions today?

I mean we're nearly 8" below average for rain this year, and almost 3" below for the Fall.

[TheClimateChanger]

PIT's low of 34F was a whopping 7 degrees below the low temperature observed at AGC, and even 1F lower than BTP (that's pretty rare). Yet no complaints about the accuracy of those readings. Go figure.

[TheClimateChanger]

23 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Just out of curiosity, why would our region be removed from the abnormally dry category on the US Drought monitor?  Over the last week we've had nearly no rain and really the last three weeks we've had nearly none.  How could we fall out of abnormally dry, especially with fire weather conditions today?

I mean we're nearly 8" below average for rain this year, and almost 3" below for the Fall.

Absolutely astounding. "Abnormally dry" supposedly correlates to conditions that are expected to occur about 1 every 3 or 4 years. I don't know how they are determining it isn't abnormally dry.

If we exclude downtown data, and look at all data from the two airport sites, this is the sixth warmest year on record to date [of 88 years].

And the ninth driest of those 88 years, and only about an inch from 5th place on this list:

 

[TimB]

11 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

PIT's low of 34F was a whopping 7 degrees below the low temperature observed at AGC, and even 1F lower than BTP (that's pretty rare). Yet no complaints about the accuracy of those readings. Go figure.

AGC did briefly get to 39 or 40 just before the 8:00 hour. But yeah, there were some hourly obs last night where that difference was 10 or 11 degrees.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

PIT's low of 34F was a whopping 7 degrees below the low temperature observed at AGC, and even 1F lower than BTP (that's pretty rare). Yet no complaints about the accuracy of those readings. Go figure.

No it's weird for sure, but showing the temps around the area this morning, showed many different pockets of warm and cool air.  Must have been cloudy in certain areas.  It made much more sense than seeing a few weeks ago, everywhere around 32 except KPIT at 37.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Starting to look like maybe a pretty solid cold shot around Thanksgiving. Put xmas lights up today in the beautiful weather. Fingers crossed that doesn't jinx the cold coming. 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

16 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

DuBois also tied a record high of 64F on Wednesday.

[TimB]

With thanksgiving trending closer to seasonable rather than anomalously cold, we still have a shot at every day in November having a high of 40 or above. We also did it in 2020.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

With thanksgiving trending closer to seasonable rather than anomalously cold, we still have a shot at every day in November having a high of 40 or above. We also did it in 2020.

Still time to trend colder, these things fluctuate.

But 2020 was a good winter, I’d take a repeat.

[TimB]

9 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Still time to trend colder, these things fluctuate.

But 2020 was a good winter, I’d take a repeat.

2020-21 was a good winter mostly because December was good and started with a big storm on the very first day of meteorological winter, which is looking highly unlikely for a repeat given the El Niño base state and current modeling. Not saying we can’t have a good January/February, but this winter likely isn’t going to look like a carbon copy of 2020-21.

[Ahoff]

15 minutes ago, TimB said:

2020-21 was a good winter mostly because December was good and started with a big storm on the very first day of meteorological winter, which is looking highly unlikely for a repeat given the El Niño base state and current modeling. Not saying we can’t have a good January/February, but this winter likely isn’t going to look like a carbon copy of 2020-21.

It’s unlikely to look like last year either, so that’s a win.

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

It’s unlikely to look like last year either, so that’s a win.

1000 percent!!!

[Ahoff]

Maybe something Sunday into Monday?

Edit: Maybe not, lol.

[Rd9108]

Ehh pretty boring start to winter so far. Looks like some cold finally is getting pushed in but no signs of any significant snow in the coming weeks. The real question who will be the lucky poster to start our winter thread? 

[TheClimateChanger]

11.6 inches of snow so far in the 2023 calendar year. The least snowiest calendar year on record is 1998, with 10.9 inches. The current second least snowiest calendar year is 1889, with 15.8 inches. However, that value is probably not really comparable to recent snowfall records due to changes in location and station exposure, as well as changes in snowfall measurement procedures.

[Ahoff]

We still have December.  Wouldn't be too worried yet.  Let's get the cold weather in then we can get snow.  Seems the biggest issue we have in our current pattern is it's too dry, but if cold outbreaks happen maybe we can get some lake effect.  I mean it is only November 26th, give it a chance.

[Rd9108]

Who knows maybe we can catch a band today to atleast get some snow flying in the air. It's frigid out there regardless.

[TheClimateChanger]

Picked up a light dusting of snow pellets here.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Getting under a pretty robust band right now, nice to see snow flying. 

[Ahoff]

Nice little burst of snow right now.

[Ahoff]

Officially had .1" of snow yesterday, I expect we'll see some accumulation today, even though it will be miniscule.

[Ahoff]

Officially the first morning in the teens.  19 this morning and .3” of snow yesterday.

[Gordo74]

It was nice to get a little blast on winter, but nothing good on the next few days :(