95L

[Windspeed]

It's doing enough to be interesting, so here we go. I honestly don't feel too confident in its future synoptic setup. It needs to gain latitude. There are multiple scenarios north of the Greater Antilles that make this a significant cyclone, but a more southerly track looks like a sheared mess. Too much trade vs. westerlies predominant within the deep Caribbean. If this system is able to close off and stack sooner than later, then perhaps we have a serious TC. Otherwise, it likely gets shredded.

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

It's doing enough to be interesting, so here we go. I honestly don't feel too confident in its future synoptic setup. It needs to gain latitude. There are multiple scenarios north of the Greater Antilles that make this a significant cyclone, but a more southerly track looks like a sheared mess. Too much trade vs. westerlies predominant within the deep Caribbean. If this system is able to close off and stack sooner than later, then perhaps we have a serious TC. Otherwise, it likely gets shredded.
 

If it does gain latitude it will cruise right into shear and Saharan Dust. 

[Windspeed]

If it does gain latitude it will cruise right into shear and Saharan Dust. 

There is a very favorable 400-200mb setup north of the Antilles that will evolve if it tracks there despite any SAL. It's the only real intense pattern I can imagine 95L having. Otherwise, it's stiff displacement at 400mb across the central Caribbean, which I just do not see it surviving.

[Windspeed]

Regardless of eventual outcome, there is enough organization here that this likely does close off at the surface and get classification. It is maintaining persistent convection, though displaced west of the nascent LLC. Short-term confidence is high. Long-term confidence is low.

[Normandy]

Agree.  This will do enough to get named but I don’t think it will do much.

[NorthHillsWx]

Andddd it’s gone 

[Windspeed]

This evening through Tuesday will have better conditions and a moister environment to support development. 95L really fell apart yesterday, though, and with only weak vorticity right now, I'm not sure it will be able to take advantage. Might be dead to rights unless it can reignite some persistent convection along its axis that has separated from the ITCZ. The caveat here is that even if 95L were to grt its act together and develop into a TC during the next few days, it looks like it will ultimately be doomed to hostile conditions in the central Caribbean.

[jaxjagman]

10 hours ago, Windspeed said:

This evening through Tuesday will have better conditions and a moister environment to support development. 95L really fell apart yesterday, though, and with only weak vorticity right now, I'm not sure it will be able to take advantage. Might be dead to rights unless it can reignite some persistent convection along its axis that has separated from the ITCZ. The caveat here is that even if 95L were to grt its act together and develop into a TC during the next few days, it looks like it will ultimately be doomed to hostile conditions in the central Caribbean.

 

Seems like the CFS wants wants to possibly strenghten  a decent CCKW the next few days as it possibly moves into the Caribbean as it tracks towards Africa

[Floydbuster]

I remember many systems like this 20 years ago that would wait until the Western Caribbean and Gulf before developing. Barry 2001, Claudette 2003, Grace 2003, ect. Now they all seem to move straight into Central America. The only system that really did something similar to those was Hurricane Hanna in 2020.

[jaxjagman]

15 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I remember many systems like this 20 years ago that would wait until the Western Caribbean and Gulf before developing. Barry 2001, Claudette 2003, Grace 2003, ect. Now they all seem to move straight into Central America. The only system that really did something similar to those was Hurricane Hanna in 2020.

Seen a few times when you have TG going into South East China look at the East Coast,i'm not no met here so certainly could be wrong,seems like to me though the potential of TG effecting the East coast should be real as we get into August its just IMO and no forecast

[Rhino16]

5 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Seems like the CFS wants wants to possibly strenghten  a decent CCKW the next few days as it possibly moves into the Caribbean as it tracks towards Africa

Isn’t this something the CFS has a problem with? I recall reading that it always strengthens those things but it doesn’t work out that way a lot of the time.