Pittsburgh/Western PA Summer 2023

[TheClimateChanger]

Thought we might make a run at 90 today, given it was 87 before 1 pm. Looks like clouds and isolated showers will prevent that from happening.

[Rd9108]

Looks like most everything will stay south of the city 

[KPITSnow]

4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Looks like most everything will stay south of the city 

I’m really ok with that. Some of the people on the central PA sub sound fairly nervous and that this is about as strong of a set up for tornado activity you can get. 
 

I don’t need tornadoes. Don’t need power outages. Kelp the cloud cover and limit instability here and I’m more than happy 

[Rd9108]

32 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I’m really ok with that. Some of the people on the central PA sub sound fairly nervous and that this is about as strong of a set up for tornado activity you can get. 
 

I don’t need tornadoes. Don’t need power outages. Kelp the cloud cover and limit instability here and I’m more than happy 

Yeah I think most of us are happy I was just making an observation. I mean the NWS upgraded around the PA border to level 4. Could see some possible big tornados down there.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Looks like most everything will stay south of the city 

At least the initial batch looks to stay south. Cloud cover from that convection probably also helps us out a bit, but not 100% sure we miss everything based on some short term models showing at least a few sporadic cells before the front comes through.

 

[KPITSnow]

1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

At least the initial batch looks to stay south. Cloud cover from that convection probably also helps us out a bit, but not 100% sure we miss everything based on some short term models showing at least a few sporadic cells before the front comes through.

 

There is some stuff back in Ohio moving towards us but it’s all below severe limits. Looks like a big flood threat too in WV as there is a ton of training happening 

[KPITSnow]

Looks like we lucked out today 

[Rd9108]

4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Looks like we lucked out today 

I don't get upset missing severe weather. Once you get into high winds I'll pass especially in the summer. 

[jwilson]

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

Looks like we lucked out today 

A little disappointed we couldn't eke out a basic thunderstorm.  We haven't had that many this year (at least in the South Hills).

[TimB]

As much as we’ve talked about how hard it is to get to 90 around here when it’s forecast, it seems to be equally easy to get to 80 when it isn’t forecast to get there. Did it again today.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

As much as we’ve talked about how hard it is to get to 90 around here when it’s forecast, it seems to be equally easy to get to 80 when it isn’t forecast to get there. Did it again today.

Yeah, little oddity of the area.

[TheClimateChanger]

Interesting... Exactly normal for the month to date. Technically, there hasn't been a below normal day since August 2 - granted 4 of those days since have been exactly normal.

[Rd9108]

Looks like they upgraded today. HRRR looks like strong storms roll through around 5PM. Looks like there's a slight threat for tornados too in western PA. Clear skies right now is probably gonna add fuel to the fire. 

[Rd9108]

Let's keep the hail threat north of the area

 

[Mailman]

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1964
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1037 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

   Areas affected...northern Indiana into much of northwest
   Ohio...western Pennsylvania...western New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 121537Z - 121800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are likely to develop along the cold front over the
   next several hours. Supercells will be capable of damaging hail, and
   a few tornadoes from northeast Ohio into Pennsylvania and southern
   New York. Damaging winds may also develop with time.

   DISCUSSION...A cold front is moving southward into northern IN and
   toward northwest OH, and visible satellite shows a zone of heating
   ahead of the front. Southwest winds will continue to aid moisture
   advection, beneath cool midlevel temperatures. The result should be
   storms increasing in coverage along the front by early to mid
   afternoon, rapidly becoming severe and producing large hail and
   damaging gusts. Wind profiles will favor supercell storm mode, but
   bowing segments may develop with time. Low-level shear will likely
   be sufficient for a few tornadoes across the region, as 0-1 km SRH
   remains around 100 m2/s2. Near Lake Erie, locally enhanced shear is
   possible which may aid storms moving roughly parallel to the lake
   shore, but also with a slight component to the right.

   Notably, an expansive CU field has developed over northeast OH,
   western PA and into western NY, with billowing clouds within the
   boundary layer. This is the zone of best supercell tornado potential
   with favorable low-level shear, good low-level CAPE, favorable
   hodographs for supercells and developing low-level vorticity along
   the boundaries.

   ..Jewell/Smith.. 08/12/2023

[Ahoff]

Really hope it doesn't live up to the potential.  I was surprised by the storm last night.  Quite loud.

[Rd9108]

 

[KPITSnow]

Yuck. My plan always is if there is a storm rolling towards us with a hail core is park at the casino 

[KPITSnow]

Storm up near Youngstown has a pretty healthy looking cutlet. New castle really needs to watch out and over towards butler too if it holds together 

[Ahoff]

Bit of deterioration on the storms from Ohio, that's good, but we'll see what happens later.

[meatwad]

Yeah they look like they are weakening a bit.

[Rd9108]

Looks like the more severe stuff ended up being south of the watch area, very interesting. 

[KPITSnow]

6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Looks like the more severe stuff ended up being south of the watch area, very interesting. 

It was all north earlier. Essentially skipped us it seems 

[meatwad]

Getting a good light show here, no wind thankfully 

[Rd9108]

7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

It was all north earlier. Essentially skipped us it seems 

As always with severe that's fine with me. It's weird that there are people on the NWS facebook page who get upset about missing the severe stuff or that it didn't come together the way they wanted. 

[Mailman]

Thankfully it seems to be weakening (at least for now).  Was legit concerned there for a bit.

[KPITSnow]

10 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

As always with severe that's fine with me. It's weird that there are people on the NWS facebook page who get upset about missing the severe stuff or that it didn't come together the way they wanted. 

I remember asking someone one time if they’d want a 120mph macroburst at their house and I was legit told yes.

 

I got stuck in one in queens when seeing the pirates in I think 2009 and no way on earth I’d want that anywhere near me 

[Ahoff]

Yeah, had only one real regular thunderstorm.  Good but if lightning and that’s about it.  That’s fine with me.  We dodged a bullet.

[Rd9108]

42 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I remember asking someone one time if they’d want a 120mph macroburst at their house and I was legit told yes.

 

I got stuck in one in queens when seeing the pirates in I think 2009 and no way on earth I’d want that anywhere near me 

I mean you see the damage they cause. I remember seeing pictures I think 2 years ago of one hitting Wildwood country club. The damage was pretty intense. 

[Rd9108]

I guess you'd call it luck that all the stronger storms have missed us the last 3 outbreaks. They either fizzled out or they missed us north or south. Pretty amazing actually.