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Pittsburgh/Western PA Summer 2023


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5 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Update to this.  Summer 2009 had a below average June and July and an exactly average August.  But 2004 was the last year that each summer month was below the averages.

With July 2023 being slightly above average so far and some warmer days and not so cool nights incoming, that might be a tough task. But June started off well above normal and ended up decisively below, so maybe.

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4 hours ago, TimB said:

With July 2023 being slightly above average so far and some warmer days and not so cool nights incoming, that might be a tough task. But June started off well above normal and ended up decisively below, so maybe.

Yeah, June looked warm to start, then tanked.  And if the belief is smoke continues to pour down here below average looks like a better bet to me.

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2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Overperformed on the highs today. Reached 90 at both Zanesville & Morgantown. Forecast showed a 0% and 6% chance of that occurring.

458912C7-5A5C-4779-A8C8-F4CD5CE269AB.jpeg.0cabcb19591660607f6de4eba606c406.jpeg

We got 89-ed, but that was a surprise.  With tomorrow forecasted to be warmer, maybe we hit 90.

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Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
PAC003-092330-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.FF.W.0010.230709T2030Z-230709T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
430 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania...

* Until 730 PM EDT.

* At 430 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. This storm has a history of
  producing 0.75 to 1.0 inches of rain in less than 20 minutes.
  Rainfall amounts of 0.77 to 1.5 inches are possible in the warned
  area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Pittsburgh, Penn Hills, Mount Lebanon, Bethel Park, Ross Township,
  Shaler Township, West Mifflin, North Side Pittsburgh, Baldwin,
  Upper St. Clair, Scott Township, Wilkinsburg, Whitehall, Robinson
  Township, Munhall, Brentwood, Swissvale, Dormont, O`hara Township
  and Bellevue.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4054 8008 4053 7996 4052 7989 4050 7985
      4046 7984 4042 7986 4034 7991 4034 8002
      4040 8016 4047 8017 4051 8014

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Rackley


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4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looks like we'll notch our first official 90 of July tomorrow. I realize some parts of the area have already seen 2 or 3 days of 90+, but none at PIT yet.

image.png.500e7dc60a6fba375f27c49ff8f50616.png

We’ll see, we’ve been coming up short quite a bit this summer.  This week though was warmer than I expected.  So, maybe.

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It’s interesting, or, at least I found it interesting. But I was looking at the July numbers from Pittsburgh International (1953-present) and found a curious trend. From 1953-1986, only three years (out of 34) met or exceeded the current July mean of 74.1F. Those years were 1955, 1966, and 1980. Since 1987, 17 out of 36 years met or exceeded that temperature. So the current temperature went from a reading that would be reached less than once every ten years to one that’s reached or exceeded in more than 2 in 5 years. Since 2010, 7 of 13 Julys have exceeded 74.1F, or more than once every other year.

I think some looking at this might chalk it up to land use changes or increase in urban heat island effect, but I’m just not sure if there’s been enough land use changes around the airport to explain this anomaly. What do you guys think? Are our Julys getting hotter?

 

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5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It’s interesting, or, at least I found it interesting. But I was looking at the July numbers from Pittsburgh International (1953-present) and found a curious trend. From 1953-1986, only three years (out of 34) met or exceeded the current July mean of 74.1F. Those years were 1955, 1966, and 1980. Since 1987, 17 out of 36 years met or exceeded that temperature. So the current temperature went from a reading that would be reached less than once every ten years to one that’s reached or exceeded in more than 2 in 5 years. Since 2010, 7 of 13 Julys have exceeded 74.1F, or more than once every other year.

I think some looking at this might chalk it up to land use changes or increase in urban heat island effect, but I’m just not sure if there’s been enough land use changes around the airport to explain this anomaly. What do you guys think? Are our Julys getting hotter?

 

Considering the highest highs don’t seem to be getting higher, overall no, but maybe July is getting less extreme while the averages get incrementally warmer.

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We have a shot or two at getting below 60 this weekend, but there are currently only 4 years in the entire period of record where there have been no 50s in July:

1921 never got below 62, and 1949, 1934 and 1887 bottomed out at 60. So far our lowest in July 2023 is 61.

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8 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Considering the highest highs don’t seem to be getting higher, overall no, but maybe July is getting less extreme while the averages get incrementally warmer.

Actually, the number of 85+ days, 90+ days, and 95+ days in the month of July all show a positive trend over that timespan - albeit rather small. On the order of 2 additional days each century for the first two categories, and 1 additional day every 1,000 years for the latter. It's very rare to reach 95+ at Pittsburgh International.

No use examining the trend for 100+ days, when there have only been three such days in recorded history at the airport. Elsewhere on the forum, I got flamed for suggesting the 1988 and 1995 temperature records were somewhat inflated. But it's worth noting the hygrothermometer in place during that era (the HO-83 model) has a known warm bias, which largely led to its replacement in the ASOS units. Funny how the only 3 100+ days at PIT happened to occur in that narrow 10-ish year window while that unit was in place. Given the bias, only the 103F would probably be 100+ with the current equipment. The other two dates would have likely been 97-99F range.

Source for some context: https://climateaudit.org/2007/08/22/the-ho-83-hygrothermometer/

So while I would agree that there has been no significant increase in extreme heat, I don't agree that it is necessarily getting less extreme. The actual data show the occurrence of extreme heat in July has been fairly steady since the early 1950s, but with a very small positive trend. I do think humidity and dew points are on the rise overall, though, but it's more difficult to obtain that data. Obviously, that wasn't the case for the start of this summer, but since the beginning of July it's been rather muggy.

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On 7/18/2023 at 10:13 PM, TimB said:

We have a shot or two at getting below 60 this weekend, but there are currently only 4 years in the entire period of record where there have been no 50s in July:

1921 never got below 62, and 1949, 1934 and 1887 bottomed out at 60. So far our lowest in July 2023 is 61.

Made at a surprise run at the 50s this morning, but fell just short with a low of 60.

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On 7/18/2023 at 10:13 PM, TimB said:

We have a shot or two at getting below 60 this weekend, but there are currently only 4 years in the entire period of record where there have been no 50s in July:

1921 never got below 62, and 1949, 1934 and 1887 bottomed out at 60. So far our lowest in July 2023 is 61.

 

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Flash Flood Warning
for Allegheny County

Issued by National Weather Service
Pittsburgh, PA
10:29 PM EDT Thu, Jul 20, 2023

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a


* Flash Flood Warning for... Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northern Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northwestern Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Southwestern Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania... Southern Butler County in west central Pennsylvania... Western Indiana County in west central Pennsylvania... Southern Beaver County in western Pennsylvania...


* Until 130 AM EDT.


* At 1029 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.


* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Pittsburgh, Penn Hills, Mount Lebanon, Bethel Park, Ross Township, McCandless Township, Monroeville, Cranberry, Moon Township, McMurray, McKeesport, Franklin Park, Aliquippa, Canonsburg, Monaca, Vandergrift, Apollo, Avella, Gastonville and Shaler Township.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.

&&

 FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

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