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March 2nd Moderate Risk ArkLaTex


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3 minutes ago, Quincy said:

True. Then there are times when all of the ingredients are off the charts and nothing happens. Severe weather is so complex. 

Absolutely, makes it the most exciting form of weather to track! Look forward to following your tweets later, always good stuff man!

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Per the SPC's discussion, the main reason the 15% area was dropped was because of poor timing for the ArkLaTx region.

Probs are still about the same for DFW, and if anything, it's looking relatively better than it did yesterday (just not quite 15% probs better).

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Oh, and it's nice to finally have an event that impacts DFW at an ideal time with a relatively clean and uncapped warm sector.

Since I moved here, most of the "better" events have either been messy (a ton of low clouds / WAA showers / drizzle with cool surface temps), had capping issues or had poor timing (late evening / early morning).

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Just now, Normandy said:

Just gave the family in DFW the heads up.  I think this one produces some things today

Softball size hail kills less people (a pizza delivery driver in Fort Worth was killed during that tornadic storm (2000?) that hit downtown, running to get to his new truck and drive it under cover) but damages property over a lot bigger area than all but the longest tracked wedges, and the big tornado is possible, but the big hail seems more likely.

 

The mid-90s Mayfest storm got my parents in Bedford (Mom is still alive and in Euless w/ my sister) a new roof.  Roof was old, needed replacing, hail damage and AllState waived deductible for using Sears roofers.

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3 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Small severe watch W/NW of metro DFW.  I assume they will post a Tornado Watch later.  SE winds near 20 mph and near 70F near Corsicana will liven this sounding up considerably.

FWD18Z.gif

I think that's the right move. Either that or issue an extremely large and marathon length Tornado Watch.

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Just now, Powerball said:

It would be surprising to me if April 2011 was the last moderate risk.

iirc some day in May 2015 had a moderate risk (might have even been tornado-driven as well).

Anyways, I think we're approaching the points where obs > models, though I can't help but notice that recent HRRR runs really blow up convection (in the form of supercells) west/northwest of DFW, like in the area that has the severe thunderstorm watch atm. Wind fields don't look very favorable for TORs so maybe the hail threat actually maximizes there? Either way the QLCS can pose problems for us later.

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1 minute ago, TexMexWx said:

iirc some day in May 2015 had a moderate risk (might have even been tornado-driven as well).

Anyways, I think we're approaching the points where obs > models, though I can't help but notice that recent HRRR runs really blow up convection (in the form of supercells) west/northwest of DFW, like in the area that has the severe thunderstorm watch atm. Wind fields don't look very favorable for TORs so maybe the hail threat actually maximizes there? Either way the QLCS can pose problems for us later.

Latest radar is starting to show some percolation of additional cells along the residual otuflow boundary from yesterday that's bisecting DFW

We'll see if they start to organize...

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