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Major November Outbreak Possible


Tallis Rockwell
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Spring-like conditions are shaping over Central and NE Texas, this friday: conditional but substantial tornado risk.cities.gif

19z Update...
   Confidence has increased that the large-scale upper trough will
   eject eastward faster than previous forecast guidance suggested. As
   the upper trough is forecast to continue to intensify, increasingly
   robust low and mid-level wind fields are expected to overspread a
   destabilizing warm sector across much of central and northeast TX.
   The northeastern extent of the larger buoyancy is still somewhat
   uncertain, but strong forcing for ascent will likely support
   numerous thunderstorms with a risk for damaging wind gusts across
   portions of eastern OK, western AR and far southern MO. Confidence
   is highest that a strongly forced QLCS will move eastward near the
   cold front from early afternoon, and towards the Mississippi River
   Valley overnight. A 50+ kt low-level jet and large looping
   hodographs will favor damaging wind/mesovortex potential with the
   QLCS. The tornado threat remains less certain and is tied to the
   conditional risk for warm sector supercells ahead of the line, along
   with the magnitude of destabilization, and open warm-sector forcing.
   However, large 0-1km SRH (250+ m2/s2) and the potential for
   supercells does suggest a conditional risk for tornadoes (possibly
   significant). An Enhanced risk for mainly strong damaging wind gusts
   has been added for storms late Friday through early Saturday
   morning. The Slight Risk has also been expanded east for greater
   severe potential through the overnight hours with the QLCS.

2022110300_NAMNST_048_32.78,-96.85_severe_ml.png

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The new Day-2 outlook has 10% hatched tornado probabilities and 30% wind probabilities including the region of Dallas to the Red River, Texarkana.

 

Quote
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1259 AM CDT THU NOV 03 2022  
  
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST   
ARKANSAS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF  
THE ARKLATEX. SCATTERED DAMAGING GUSTS, HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES  
WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

 

day2probotlk_0600_torn.gif

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Still some uncertainties to work out with timing and storm mode.

The NAM and other Hi-Res models are a lot slower and more ominous-looking for North Texas and Southern Oklahoma Friday evening, whereas the global models shift the better threat (less ominous) into E. Texas pretty quickly Friday afternoon.

I tend to think the more progressive / less ominous outcome will win out, especially with the help of mesoscale influences such as storm outfllows from morning activity.

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I can definitely see the elevated threat for NE Texas (for both damaging winds and tornadoes).

As for DFW, I'm still really not sure what to make of it... Seems very dependent on where the storms begin to form. A difference of 50 miles east or west could make or break the event for the metroplex.

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12 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Already getting a bit of rain by the airport. Maybe will tamp down on later activity?

I don't think so.

This event will be almost entirely driven by good jet dynamics despite less than ideal thermodynamics.

If anything, FWD's discussion from yesterday mentioned those streamer showers (like the one you're getting now) would have to be watch for growth into discrete supercells over the next few hours.

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2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

FWD did a 15Z balloon.  Not on SPC site yet.  18Z on an enhanced day is almost normal, 15Z, someone is concerned.

SPC mesoanalysis gives a good hint of what things look like, and it is definitely a bit ominous. Sill some residual capping, but it's eroding rapidly.

In fact, an argument could be made the risk areas should be expanded a bit further west.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1917
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

   Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma across north-central and
   northeastern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 041628Z - 041730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential for severe/supercell storms is expected to
   gradually increase into the afternoon.  All-hazards severe risk is
   expected, including likelihood for for significant tornadoes,
   widespread damaging winds, and large hail.  A tornado watch will
   likely be required by early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convection increasing in
   coverage/intensity along an advancing cold front now stretching from
   southeastern Kansas across central and southwestern Oklahoma and
   into western North Texas.  Ahead of the front/frontal convection, a
   moistening boundary layer is indicated, with mid 60s dewpoints into
   southeastern Oklahoma and low 70s dewpoints now spreading toward the
   Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.

   The low-level moistening is occurring beneath a rather substantial
   capping inversion, revealed by the recent 15Z FWD RAOB, and which
   extends across the warm sector as suggested by the character of the
   low cloudiness as revealed by recent visible satellite imagery. 
   This cloudiness will continue to retard heating, and thus low-level
   destabilization, over the next several of hours, but cooling aloft
   -- associated with the advancing upper system -- will allow gradual
   airmass destabilization, particularly above 700mb.

   Weak warm-advection-induced showery convection indicated across the
   warm sector continues to gradually increase, with some small/higher
   reflectivity cores beginning to become apparent.  Expect a gradual
   ramp-up in this convection to continue -- with eventual growth into
   cellular/lightning-producing cells as cooling aloft continues within
   the capping layer and above.  

   Once deep convection becomes established, rapid intensification to
   severe levels is expected, as very favorable shear -- provided by
   low-level southerly flow veering to south-southwesterly and
   increasing to 50 kt at around 1km along with additional veering
   above -- resides across the warm sector.  Risk for
   strong/significant tornadoes will then ensue, as storms acquire
   strong rotation.  Large hail and locally damaging winds are also
   expected.

   Risk for damaging winds will likely increase later this afternoon
   and beyond, as convection strengthens linearly along the front with
   time, likely merging gradually with pre-frontal cellular convection
   to evolve into a well-developed squall line by early evening.  This
   anticipated evolution will likely require tornado watch issuance
   within the next hour or two, extending eastward across southeastern
   Oklahoma and North Texas toward the Arklatex region.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 11/04/2022
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I think I just heard thunder, although out earlier everything looked under the cap and radar still doesn't show more than streamer showers in Houston area.  Walked into a stiff S wind with light rain just over an hour ago.

 

We are getting breaks of sun, 80F/74F, not sure that reaches DFW before the storms, but gusting to 31 mph, which is probably about what LLJ is, that will make East Texas.

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Tor watch including the metroplex. 70/50 probs


SEL0

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 560
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   100 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northwest Arkansas
     Eastern and Southern Oklahoma
     North Central and Northeast Texas

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until
     800 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and
   intensity this afternoon, with scattered severe storms expected. 
   Strong winds aloft and a moist environment will pose a risk of
   tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Fayetteville AR
   to 25 miles east of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
   storm motion vector 24035.

   ...Hart
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And already we have a severe t-storm warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC181-041900-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0231.221104T1805Z-221104T1900Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
105 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Grayson County in north central Texas...

* Until 200 PM CDT.

* At 104 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from Lake Texoma to near Pilot Point, moving northeast at
  35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Sherman, Whitesboro, Denison, Van Alstyne, Howe, Pottsboro,
  Collinsville, Whitewright, Gunter, Bells, Tom Bean, Knollwood,
  Dorchester, Randell Lake, Eisenhower State Park, Valley Lake, Lake
  Texoma, Preston, Southmayd and Tioga.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for north central
Texas.

For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9663 3389 9658 3385 9663 3384 9662
      3382 9658 3382 9653 3377 9650 3376 9641
      3374 9639 3347 9639 3341 9685 3342 9694
      3389 9691 3385 9686 3387 9683 3387 9680
      3382 9676 3384 9669 3392 9666
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 212DEG 31KT 3380 9680 3344 9690

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Gordon
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2 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

And already we have a severe t-storm warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC181-041900-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0231.221104T1805Z-221104T1900Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
105 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Grayson County in north central Texas...

* Until 200 PM CDT.

* At 104 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from Lake Texoma to near Pilot Point, moving northeast at
  35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Sherman, Whitesboro, Denison, Van Alstyne, Howe, Pottsboro,
  Collinsville, Whitewright, Gunter, Bells, Tom Bean, Knollwood,
  Dorchester, Randell Lake, Eisenhower State Park, Valley Lake, Lake
  Texoma, Preston, Southmayd and Tioga.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for north central
Texas.

For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9663 3389 9658 3385 9663 3384 9662
      3382 9658 3382 9653 3377 9650 3376 9641
      3374 9639 3347 9639 3341 9685 3342 9694
      3389 9691 3385 9686 3387 9683 3387 9680
      3382 9676 3384 9669 3392 9666
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 212DEG 31KT 3380 9680 3344 9690

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Gordon
Tornado Warning
OKC013-041900-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0056.221104T1808Z-221104T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Norman OK
108 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Bryan County in southeastern Oklahoma...

* Until 200 PM CDT.

* At 108 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Sherman, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Durant, Colbert, Achille, Kemp, Hendrix, Cartwright, Blue, Utica,
  eastern Lake Texoma and Calera.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room or an interior
room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you
are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 9637 3378 9643 3377 9650 3382 9653
      3382 9658 3384 9662 3403 9645 3403 9621
      3375 9621 3377 9629 3375 9631 3370 9632
      3369 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 226DEG 28KT 3362 9668

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Mahale
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17 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Johnson County (heading toward Tarrant) cell starting to look interesting.  Anyone with GR super radar?

We have a radar in Cleburne and got a really close look... Decent storm scale rotation within the line indicative of small hail and reports of such have followed.  But not much in the way of notable wind signatures close to the ground.  My eyes are currently on E Arlington/Grand Prairie where the strengthening line is starting to interact with moisture streaming north. 

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