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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022


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  • 3 weeks later...

Not as dry this month as 2011, when I learned what I thought was a live oak was a water oak, and when the dry side (I can't remember if TS Lee was one sided because of shear, dry air, probably both) downed power lines that started the Bastrop fire that destroyed 1600 rural homes.

 

OT- Bastrop is named for the Compte de Bastrop, who was a Dutch born conman passing himself off as a French nobleman in Texas.

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  • 2 weeks later...

So we got 2 camps of models for tomorrow:

1. The GFS / EURO / HRRR / RAP showing highs in the mid/upper 90s.

2. The NAM / NAM ensembles / GEM only showing highs in the low/mid 80s.

^^^We will find out which set of these models is terrible. I want to lean towards #2, but on the other hand, #2 does a good job of picking up on those shallow cold fronts that end up stronger than forecasted.

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Just barely squeaked out 90F at DFW today, but it counts. The streak probably won’t break until Saturday, but there is a strong signal for a cold frontal passage this weekend, which could make it as far south as the Gulf Coast. 

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14 hours ago, Quincy said:

Just barely squeaked out 90F at DFW today, but it counts. The streak probably won’t break until Saturday, but there is a strong signal for a cold frontal passage this weekend, which could make it as far south as the Gulf Coast. 

DFW will need the 90°F+ days to continue until Saturday to tie with the longest streak on record for May (previously set in 1996).

Projections right now are that it will fall 1 day short, unless the front slows down like the 12z GEM advertises...

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14 hours ago, Powerball said:

DFW will need the 90°F+ days to continue until Saturday to tie with the longest streak on record for May (previously set in 1996).

Projections right now are that it will fall 1 day short, unless the front slows down like the 12z GEM advertises...

00z models have trended slower with the cold front just like the GEM.

So Saturday may still have a shot at 90°F yet...

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On 5/18/2022 at 3:29 AM, Powerball said:

00z models have trended slower with the cold front just like the GEM.

So Saturday may still have a shot at 90°F yet...

 

On 5/17/2022 at 1:10 PM, Powerball said:

DFW will need the 90°F+ days to continue until Saturday to tie with the longest streak on record for May (previously set in 1996).

Projections right now are that it will fall 1 day short, unless the front slows down like the 12z GEM advertises...

DFW reached an intra-hour high of 92°F at 1:01pm before the cold front moved through.

So yes, the record has been tied!

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8 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Will have to await final confirmation, but with a high of 95*F and a low of 77*F today, that should be good enough to make May 2022 the 5th warmest on record for DFW (tied with 2012).

And while we're at it, Spring 2022 would tie for the 6th warmest on record and would be the warmest in 10 years (2012).

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I would be lying if I said I wasn't a bit a concerned that ongoing MCS in OK will impact North Texas later today.

Upper level shear is kind of lacking and capping is pretty stout now (which botg should make it harder to maintain organization), but this complex is tied to a MCV which tend to do their own thing while both the corfidi vectors and instability gradient would support propagation into this region. 

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NWS has 100*F forecast Friday and Saturday, 96* tomorrow and then rising.  Normal enough in June, I suppose, further from the coast, but 101* ties the local Houston record 11th-13th

 

Larry Cosgrove, retired met, on Facebook, is comparing this Summer to 1980 and 2011.  2011 was the big Bastrop fire, other fires near Austin, and fires near Possum Kingdom Lake.  I remember the Bastrop fire (still see the burnt trees driving to AUS), the dry but breezy backside of TS Lee downed a powerline somewhere.

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