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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

It is, unfortunately, the pattern changer. The 500 pattern looks much more like December after that, but it’s a week and a half away and hopefully won’t have the kind of staying power it had in December.

I think a relaxation of the pacific is bound to happen in early February. As you said, the question becomes is it brief or locking in like December. I hope we can get one more longer trackable event next weekend and I'll be happy with January. 

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58 minutes ago, dj3 said:

I think a relaxation of the pacific is bound to happen in early February. As you said, the question becomes is it brief or locking in like December. I hope we can get one more longer trackable event next weekend and I'll be happy with January. 

I mean, if we do end up with two crappy winter months and one decent to good one, I’m glad it was January.

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5 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I mean, if we do end up with two crappy winter months and one decent to good one, I’m glad it was January.

We haven't had a good January in a while, at least to me it seems that way. I think despite the melting yesterday January gives the best shot for pack retention. If I'm being picky.. last December was pretty awesome. So if I'm choosing month for most snow that would be choice slightly in front of January. 

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6 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Look how that turned out.

Yep. The ones for our area released with two weeks lead for Dec and Jan were equally bad. The December one had us in the “equal chances” area, and the January one had us above normal.

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4 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Nothing noteworthy for the first two systems on the Euro. Sunday system is weak, Tuesday system slides too far north for anything impactful.

GFS looks pretty good with 3 clipper-like systems coming through on Sunday, Tuesday and later in the week. Let's hope they can pan out and we get something. Heck I'd take three 1-3 inch snowfalls haha

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2 minutes ago, north pgh said:

GFS looks pretty good with 3 clipper-like systems coming through on Sunday, Tuesday and later in the week. Let's hope they can pan out and we get something. Heck I'd take three 1-3 inch snowfalls haha

GFS looks fantastic if you ask me. Some clippers and it kicks the can on the pattern change.

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Appreciate the attempt but I'm looking for the hour long documentary and they focus on various aspects like the storms in Florida and then they talk about the kids who were camping in the mountains and then it goes from 60s to 20s in hours. 

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Interesting how much the overnight cloud cover was under-forecast. NWS had a forecast low of 4 but it looks like PIT never reached single digits.
Edit: I spoke too soon. Looks like the 8:10 obs was 9.

I made it to 9 on my PWS. Looks like it was way more cloudy between 1 am and 5 am than what they thought.


.
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35 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:


I made it to 9 on my PWS. Looks like it was way more cloudy between 1 am and 5 am than what they thought.


.

Tonight should be out best shot to hit 0, we shouldn't have any issue with clouds from what I can see.

The Sunday clipper looks less and less impressive as we close in, not unusual for these things to dry up as we close in but I thought maybe a solid 2-3 a few days ago was possible but now looking like maybe an inch.

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41 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Tonight should be out best shot to hit 0, we shouldn't have any issue with clouds from what I can see.

The Sunday clipper looks less and less impressive as we close in, not unusual for these things to dry up as we close in but I thought maybe a solid 2-3 a few days ago was possible but now looking like maybe an inch.

Yes the GFS looks to give us 1-2 and the NAM 1 inch or less for Sunday. The good news is we will get some steady light snow during the day which is always nice so you can watch it fall. Let's see what the Canadian says and then maybe something can come of a mid-week phaser-type storm.

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57 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Tonight should be out best shot to hit 0, we shouldn't have any issue with clouds from what I can see.

The Sunday clipper looks less and less impressive as we close in, not unusual for these things to dry up as we close in but I thought maybe a solid 2-3 a few days ago was possible but now looking like maybe an inch.

Looks like there's a chance at 0 or lower next week too.

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23 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Yes the GFS looks to give us 1-2 and the NAM 1 inch or less for Sunday. The good news is we will get some steady light snow during the day which is always nice so you can watch it fall. Let's see what the Canadian says and then maybe something can come of a mid-week phaser-type storm.

Canadian on Sunday looks like a light 1 inch snowfall as well. Tuesday is starting to look like a gusty cold front that may bring some squalls and another cold shot for Wed Thurs. 

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1 hour ago, dj3 said:

Have to laugh at this.

image.thumb.png.3f2ed447d3403bd40f1aa2f5a39a8a4d.png
Appears that period is very boom or bust for someone in the eastern us. 

The EC suggests it could be that same region, and throws the good stuff our way as it finally ejects north.

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29 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The EC suggests it could be that same region, and throws the good stuff our way as it finally ejects north.

Odds for a bigger storm going up in that time period. I don't see anything on the current runs that would prevent an inland track, that could change but right now it's all timing the phase / interactions. 

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8 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Odds for a bigger storm going up in that time period. I don't see anything on the current runs that would prevent an inland track, that could change but right now it's all timing the phase / interactions. 

Things seem to have moved away from locking in the really cold air next weekend to possibly putting us in a better pattern for snow.

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