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December 2021 temperature forecast contest and winter snowfall contest


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This will be the final monthly contest for 2021 in what has proven to be a fairly close competition. I have added on the winter snowfall contest with the same stations in play as for the past few winters. Note carefully the substitutions for low-snow locations in the temperature contests. 

For the temperature forecasts, anomalies relative to 1991-2020 normals (F deg) for these nine locations:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

and for the snowfall contest, six of those plus three more northern locations ... 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

deadlines for both contests 06z Dec 1st, some leeway will be allowed for the snowfall contest. 

Good luck !! 

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0      1.0       0.5       0.5       1.5     1.5         0.5    1.0      1.0  

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

10"      23"     38"       44"     38"     106"      49"      7"       129"           

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.0      1.7       1.0       0.7       2.6     2.8        1.7      1.8      -0.9

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

12"      28"     36"       38"     36"     92"        41"      11       95"       

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.7      1.5       1.1         3.0     2.4     3.5         4.0    3.0      -0.5 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

9.4     27.3     44.9     35.1    28.3    84.0       43.4    9.5    71.5

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.7      1.9       0.7         2.1     1.8     3.0         3.0    2.7       0.2

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN __SEA __ BTV

11.6    30.3     33.8    32.7   32.4     94.0       45.0    10.2.   108.8

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.1       1.6       1.3         3.2     3.7     4.7       5.6      4.1      0.4 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

12.8     25.0   45        54      42       91           48      12       75

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.0       -1.2      -0.8        -1.7     0.0     2.5       2.5      4.7    -1.5 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

17.5    32.5   50.7        44.8     49.5    107.2       52.0    10.5     82.2

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Table of forecasts for December 2021
 
_FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA
 
RJay ___________________________+2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ +4.5 _ +3.5 __ 0.0
 
RodneyS _______________________ +2.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.3 __ +3.2 _ +3.7 _ +4.7 __ +5.6 _ +4.1 _ +0.4
 
wxallannj ______________________ +2.0 _ +1.7 _ +1.0 __ +0.7 _ +2.6 _ +2.8 __ +1.7 _ +1.8 _ -0.9
 
DonSutherland 1 _______________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 __ +3.0 _ +2.4 _ +3.5 __ +4.0 _ +3.0 _ -0.5
 
Deformation Zone ______________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ -0.5
 
so_whats_happening ___________ +1.5 _ +1.1 __ 0.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.7 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ -0.4
 
 
___ Consensus __________________ +1.4 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 __ +1.1 _ +1.7 _ +2.4 __ +2.7 _ +2.8 _ -0.3
 
 
BKViking _______________________ +1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.0 __ +1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 __ +2.5 _ +2.8 _ -0.5
 
Tom ____________________________ +1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 __ +1.2 _ +0.9 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ -0.3
 
Scotty Lightning _______________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0
 
hudsonvalley21 ________________ +0.7 _ +1.9 _ +0.7 __ +2.1 _ +1.8 _ +3.0 __ +3.0 _ +2.7 _ +0.2
 
___ Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 
 
Roger Smith ___________________ -1.0 __ -1.2 _ -0.8 __ -1.7 __ 0.0 __ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +4.7 _ -1.5
 
wxdude64 _____________________ -1.3 __ -1.3 _ -0.9 __ -1.3 _ +1.6 __ +2.3 __ +2.8 _ +2.6 _ -0.2
 
 
 
============================================================
 
Snowfall Forecast Contest Winter 2021-22
 
__________________________________ DCA __NYC __BOS ___ ORD __DTW __BUF __ DEN __SEA __BTV
 
wxdude64 _______________________20.0 __ 38.0 __ 54.0 __ 52.0 __ 47.0 __104.0__ 58.0 __13.0 __105.0 
 
Tom ______________________________17.7 __ 36.9 __ 46.1 __ 48.7 __ 47.8 __ 94.4 __ 65.2 __ 8.1 __102.2 
 
Roger Smith ______________________17.5 __ 32.5 __ 50.7 __ 44.8 __ 49.5 __107.2 __ 52.0 __10.5__ 82.2
 
so_whats_happening _____________16.0 __ 34.0 __ 62.0 __ 41.0 __ 45.0 __ 74.0 __ 36.0 __11.0 __ 91.0 
 
RodneyS ________________________ 12.8 __ 25.0 __ 45.0 __ 54.0 __ 42.0 __ 91.0 __ 48.0 __12.0 __ 75.0 
 
wxallannj ________________________12.0 __ 28.0 __ 36.0 __ 38.0 __ 36.0 __ 92.0 __ 41.0 __11.0 __ 95.0 
 
hudsonvalley21 __________________11.6 __ 30.3 __ 33.8 __ 32.7 __ 32.4 __ 94.0 __ 45.0 __10.2 __108.8 
 
Scotty Lightning _________________10.0 __ 23.0 __ 38.0 __ 44.0 __ 38.0 __106.0 __ 49.0 __ 7.0 __129.0 
 
DonSutherland 1 __________________9.4 __ 27.3 __ 44.9 __ 35.1 __ 28.3 __ 84.0 __ 43.4 __ 9.5 __ 71.5 
 
BKViking _________________________ 8.0 __ 28.0 __ 42.0 __ 44.0 __ 25.0 __ 88.0 __ 55.0 __22.0__ 85.0 
 
Deformation Zone ________________ 8.0 __ 18.0 __ 36.0 __ 38.0 __ 44.0 __ 70.0 __ 24.0 __ 4.0 __ 86.0 
 
RJay _____________________________ 5.0 __ 20.0 __ 42.0 __ 40.0 __ 34.0 __ 90.0 __ 50.0 __13.0 __100.0 
 
 
mean of forecasts _______________12.3 __ 28.4 __ 44.2 ___ 42.7 __ 39.1 __ 91.2 __ 47.2 __10.9 __ 94.2
 
====================================
 
   
 
 
        
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