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Roger Smith

May 2021 temperature forecast contest

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Predict the temperature anomalies for these nine locations:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

As far as I know the anomalies in use will continue to be 1981-2010. If this changes before the deadline I will get in touch with entrants. If it changes during the month with 1991-2020 to be used at end of month, I will try to find the differentials to apply and unless otherwise notified your forecasts will be assumed to be with reference to 1981-2010 normals. We will do the seasonal max forecasts this summer but I'll add that to June this year. 

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DCA:  +2.5

NYC:  +2.5

BOS:  +2.5

ORD: +2.5

ATL:  +1.5

IAD:  +2..0

DEN:  +3.5

PHX:  +2.5

SEA:   0.0

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0      1.0      0.8        0.5      1.3     1.0         1.8      1.0      -0.1

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DCA:  +1.8

NYC:  +1.6

BOS:  +1.2

ORD: +0.2

ATL:  +1.2

IAH:  +0.2

DEN:  -0.5

PHX:  +2.1

SEA:   + 0.8

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.4       0.6      0.4       -0.1      0.8     0.7        -0.2     0.2      0.1

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Table of forecasts for May, 2021

 

FORECASTER _____ _____ _____ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ bias (rel to con)

RJay _________________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +3.5 _ +2.5 __ 0.0 ___ +0.89

hudsonvalley21 ______________ +2.1 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 __ +1.9 _ +1.1 _ +2.6 __ +2.7 _ +2.0 _ +0.6 ___ +0.68

Tom _________________________ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.2 __ +0.2 _ +1.2 _ +0.2 __ --0.5 _ +2.1 _ +0.8 ___ --0.41

so_whats_happening _ (-3%) __ +1.8 _ +1.1 _ +0.7 __ +1.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __ +1.9 _ +2.3 _ +0.4 ___ +0.20

wxdude64 ____________________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +0.6 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 __ +0.9 _ +1.6 _ --0.4 ___ --0.22

Scotty Lightning _______________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ --0.06

___ Consensus ________________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +0.4 

Roger Smith __________________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.2 __ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 __ +1.9 _ +2.3 _ +0.8 ___ +0.19

BKViking _____________________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +1.5 _ +2.2 __ +2.6 _ +2.1 _ +0.8 ___ +0.26

wxallannj _____________________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 __ --0.5 _ +1.6 _ --0.5 __ --0.6 _ +2.2 _ +0.4 ___ --0.59

RodneyS ______________________ +1.4 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 __--0.1 _ +0.8 _ +0.7 __ --0.2 _ +0.2 _ +0.1 ___ --0.84

DonSutherland1 _______________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 __ +0.5 _ +1.3 _ +1.0 __ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ --0.1 ___ --0.36

___ Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ --1.28

_________________________________________________________________

Color codes for warmest and coldest forecasts, Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL, PHX.

Bias is the average departure of your forecast from consensus. The bias of normal tells us that our average forecast is +1.28. 

 

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