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Roger Smith

April 2021 temperature forecast contest

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Predict the April temp anomalies (F deg rel to 1981-2010 still) for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

The usual late penalties apply. 

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DCA:  +2.5

NYC:  +2.5

BOS:  +2.5

ORD: +3.5

ATL:  +2.0

IAD:  +3.0

DEN:  +2.5

PHX:  +1.5

SEA:  0.0

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.5     -0.2      0.0       1.6      0.3     0.6          3.7     1.1     -1.6

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.4      1.7      1.6        3.6      0.2     0.3         2.7      1.0      -0.8

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+0.2 __ --1.4 __ --2.7 __ 0.0 __ +1.5 __ +3.0 ___ +4.5 __ +3.0 __ --0.5

Blocking in Atlantic may mean a lot of northerly flow east of about CLE to BWI, warm in the central plains but another cool trough west coast.

 

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DCA: +1.5

NYC +1.6

BOS: +1.6

ORD: +1.7

ATL:  +0.5

IAH:  +1.0

DEN: +1.2

PHX: +0.9

SEA:  -0.5

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Table of forecasts for April, 2021

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ bias

RJay ______________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __ +3.5 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ +1.08

BKViking __________________ +1.8 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 __ +2.4 _ +1.1 _ +1.4 ___+0.2 _ +1.1 _ --0.9 ___ --0.03

wxdude64 _________________+1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.9 __ +2.2 _ +1.7 _ +2.0 ___ +0.8 _ +1.3 _ --0.6 ___ +0.27

Tom ___________ (-5%) ______+1.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.6 __ +1.7 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.2 _ +0.9 _ --0.5 ___ --0.03

DonSutherland1 ___________ +1.4 _ +1.7 _ +1.6 __ +3.6 _ +0.2 _ +0.3 ___ +2.7 _ +1.0 _ --0.8 ___ +0.16

hudsonvalley21 ____________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.5 __ +1.9 _ +0.7 _ +1.2 ___ +2.0 _ +1.7 _ --0.4 ___ +0.09

___ Consensus _____________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.2 __ +1.7 _ +1.0 _ +1.2 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ --0.8

Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ___ --0.09

so_whats_happening ______ +0.8 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 __ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +2.8 _ +0.8 ___ +0.26

Roger Smith _______________+0.2 _ --1.4 _ --2.7 ___ 0.0 _ +1.5 _ +3.0 ___ +4.5+3.0 _ --0.5 ___ --0.30

___ Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ --1.14

wxallannj _________________ --0.4 _ --0.1 _ --0.4 __ --0.5 _ --1.0 _ --0.9 ___ --0.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ --1.18

RodneyS __________________--0.5 _ --0.2 __ 0.0 __ +1.6 _ +0.3 _ +0.6 ___ +3.7 _ +1.1 _ --1.6 ___ --0.70

__________________________________________________________________________

Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. All forecasts above normal at PHX.

Bias is a measure of your average departure from consensus forecasts (which average 1.14 above normal).

There may be different tendencies in the east and west in some cases. 

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After two weeks these are the anomalies and projections ... 

___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

15th ___ (anom 14d) ______ +3.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.9 __ +8.3 _ +2.5 _ +0.8 __ +3.2 _ +8.9 _ --1.4

23rd ___ (anom 22d) ______ +1.0 _ +1.4 _ +2.9 __ +3.6 _ +0.5 _ --2.1 __ --3.2 _ +5.8 _ +2.8

 

15th ___ (p 21d) __________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +4.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ +1.0 _ +7.0 _ +1.5

 

15th ___ (p 30d) __________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ +1.5 _ +5.5 _ +1.5

23rd ___ (p 30d) __________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _ --1.0 __ --1.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.0

1st ___ (final anoms) _____ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +2.7 ___ +3.0 _ +0.9 _ ---0.9 __ --1.2 _ +4.0 _ +2.7

____________________

15th _ A relatively warm start to the month in most regions, except the Pac NW which is warming rapidly towards a few days of near 80 F, while the eastern half of the country looks set to chill a bit anyway, with the longer term outlook returning closer to normal with variations, so the projections are based on a colder pattern for about a week to ten days then up and down near average in the east, sustained warmth in the west except that DEN gets into occasional cold northeast flows. No new snow at any of the contest sites so that report stays over in March for now.

(note BOS anom estimated, 4.1 to 13th, +1 for 14th not added to CF6 report yet). 

23rd _ A day late getting to the verification which is probably better than it looks because anomalies were changing fairly quickly in past two days. The projection to end of month is based on the idea that warm anomalies will outweigh cold by 2:1 as different sectors move through, so that the downward slide currently going on may continue for a couple more days then a reversal to much warmer temperatures will occur in the east, while DEN and IAH will get into very warm air soon and then turn a bit cooler. Except for DEN there have not been large changes in these projections since last week's effort. 

(note: these changes will need to be made to snowfall contest amounts _ DTW +3.6" (44.9") BUF +4.9" (77.0") BTV +3.5" (63.1") DEN +12.6" (80.2")

The snowfall contest post in March will be updated and moved into this thread later today. 

 1st _ Posting final anomalies and adjusting scoring. Some final anomalies are close estimates based on 29th CF6 and 30th climate report. I am also checking against Apr 2020 CF6 to verify that normal values derived from anomalies quoted are same (i.e., 1981-2010). So far these are verified results:

DCA same (both 56.8)

NYC was -0.1 diff, 53.0 this year, 53.1 last year,

BOS same (both 48.1)

ORD was -0.1 diff, 48.9 this year, 49.0 last year (could be a rounding with NYC,ORD, or new normal is almost same as old one, in any case not significant to scoring really)

ATL same (both 62.0)

IAH same (both 69.5)

DEN was -0.1 diff, 47.4 this year, 47.5 last year

PHX same (both 72.7)

SEA same (both 50.3)

__ I think the 0.1 differences may be second decimal rounding results, these are obviously same normal sets as used a year ago. 

For example, let's say a month ends 59.23 and normal is 59.37, then the difference is -0.14 or -0.1 although from rounded values it would be -0.2. 

So I have convinced myself that we are still using 1981-2010 normal values for this month. 

__ all updated now 

__ scoring also updated (being double checked)

 

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It would only be the last two maps in play for our contest implications, and those are annual averages, various months at various locations may show odd variations -- I expect most of the 1991-2020 normals to be in the range of 0.5 to 1.0 F deg higher than the ones we have been using, whether that's going to be significant to our estimates is probably near the edge of our presumed tolerances anyway. If it's possible I will post the differentials for each location with each monthly announcement once I know that the NWS will be giving us anomalies in the new time frame. Haven't heard anything new, still on the lookout for that info (Don seemed to think it could be June). 

In other news, I have updated the anomaly tracker (two posts back) and found some extra snow for the contest sites in recent days, so that table will come over here from March in an updated form soon. Provisional scoring will follow. I have a feeling our consensus was pretty close. My cold came a little too late to tip the scales. 

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Winter Snowfall contest 2020-2021  -- Table of entries and scoring

_ updated for April snowfalls (at DTW, BUF, DEN, BTV). 

The red highlighted numbers are best forecasts at this stage, and those underlined

are settled as such because all forecasts have already been passed or for ORD the

max forecast is closer than the others although not yet passed. BOS is tied for

best forecasts on either side (37.0, actual 38.5, 40.0). 

(Apr 23 update _ DEN added 12.6" BUF, DTW and BTV 3-5" amounts since last report, as shown. )

Note _ for current total departure, the first number is your total error at this point. The second value

in brackets is the total of "non-reducible errors" for those stations that have passed your forecast.

Your total departure can improve if more snow falls at stations where your forecast is higher than

current values. It can only be increased by snow falling where your forecasts are now passed. 

All of us have been passed at NYC, DEN and SEA. All but one have been passed at ORD.

Nobody has been passed yet at BTV (contest leader RJay would be first and has 1.9" to spare).

Two forecasters have some left to use up at DTW, and BUF has only passed contest leader RJay

and current third place wxallannj.

 

FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ current total dep

snowfall to Apr 22___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.5 __48.8 _ 44.9 _ 77.0 __ 80.2 _ 12.9 _ 63.1

RJay ________________8.0 _ 20.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 40.0 _ 75.0 __ 65.0 __ 4.0 _ 65.0 _____ 66.4 (61.9)

__ consensus _______14.5 _ 28.2 _ 40.0 __ 40.0 _ 44.1 _ 87.0 __ 59.6 __ 5.1 _ 78.3 ______ 84.2 (48.4)

wxdude64 _________ 13.2 _ 29.7 _ 45.9 __ 41.7 _ 44.2 _ 97.7 __ 73.2 __ 7.1 _ 84.1 _____ 86.4 (29.5)

wxallannj __________ 21.0 _ 29.0 _ 37.0 __ 43.0 _ 47.0 _ 70.0 __ 51.0 __ 5.2 _ 77.0 _____ 92.4 (60.8)

hudsonvalley21 ____ 16.3 _ 30.4 _ 44.5 __ 39.7 _ 48.2 _ 87.9 __ 61.1 __ 6.8 _ 83.2 _____ 93.7 (42.5)

Don Sutherland1 ____ 6.0 _ 11.5 _ 28.0 __ 38.5 _ 44.0 _ 87.0 __ 57.5 __ 3.4 _ 72.9 _____101.4 (81.0)

Tom _______________ 18.1 _ 29.8 _ 42.5 __ 43.3 _ 44.1 _102.5__ 59.6 __ 4.2 _ 78.3 _____101.8 (44.4) 

RodneyS ____________ 4.4 __ 8.5 _ 20.0 __ 31.6 _ 38.0 _ 78.9 __ 55.5 __ 5.1 _ 66.6 _____111.6 (106.2)

Roger Smith _______ 14.5 _ 28.2 _ 60.5 __ 35.5 _ 39.9 _ 80.5 __ 55.5 _ 12.5 _ 90.5 ____ 115.8 (53.8)

Scotty Lightning ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 40.0 __ 50.0 40.0 _125.0__ 75.0 __ 3.0 _ 90.0 ____ 120.8 (33.6)

snowfall to Apr 22 ___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.5 ___48.8 _ 44.9 _ 77.0 __ 80.2 _ 12.9 _ 63.1

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Not much more snow is expected anywhere now, and since everyone has been passed by DEN, further

snowfall there will have no impact on the results. The same is true of ORD since only Scotty Lightning

can gain any ground and that would be a net of 3.0" before he also joins the rest of the field. 

The main potential for change would be snow at DTW which would assist third place wxallannj and

hudsonvalley21, but they only have 2.1" and 3.3" to use, their net gain can be twice those amounts,

meaning that both could pass wxdude64 but not RJay. (at around 2.6" hudsonvalley would pass

wxallannj). More snow at BUF could give wxdude64 back his advantage over wxallannj but hudsonvalley21

would keep pace. It would take a fairly large dump of snow at BUF to overtake RJay who is already passed

there. Unless that happens I think the contest is fairly well settled now. 

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Final scoring for April 2021

 

_______(anomalies) _______ +1.4_+1.6_+2.7 ______ +3.0_+0.9_--0.9 __________ --1.2_+4.0_+2.7

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS_ east _ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent_ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL

 

BKViking __________________ 92 _ 98 _ 70 __ 260 __ 88 _ 96 _ 54 __ 238 _ 498 __ 72 _ 42 _ 26 __ 140 ____ 638

wxdude64 _________________92 _100 _ 84 __ 276 __ 84 _ 84 _ 42 __ 210 _ 486 __ 60 _ 46 _ 32 __ 138 ____ 624

hudsonvalley21 ____________96 _ 94 _ 76 __ 266 __ 78 _ 96 _ 58 __ 232 _ 498 __ 36 _ 54 _ 36 __ 126 ____ 624 

DonSutherland1 __________ 100 _ 98 _ 78 __ 276 __ 88 _ 86 _ 76 __ 250 _ 526 __ 22 _ 40 _ 28 __ 090 ____ 616

 

___ Consensus _____________96 _ 94 _ 70 __ 260 __ 74 _ 98 _ 58 __ 230 _ 490 __ 36 _ 50 _ 28 __ 114 ____ 604

 

Tom ______________________ 98 _100 _ 78 __ 276 __ 74 _ 98 _ 62 __ 234 _ 510 __ 52 _ 38 _ 36 __ 126 _ 636

Tom _________ (-5%) ________93 _ 95 _ 74 __ 262 __ 70 _ 93 _ 59 __ 222 _ 484 __ 49 _ 36 _ 34 __ 119 ____ 603

Scotty Lightning ___________ 92 _ 88 _ 56 __ 236 __ 40 _ 98 _ 62 __ 200 _ 436 __ 36 _ 60 _ 66 __ 162 ____ 598

so_whats_happening ______ 88 _ 78 _ 46 __ 212 __ 76 _ 86 _ 40 __ 202 _ 414 __ 32 _ 76 _ 62 __ 170 ____ 584 

wxallannj __________________64 _ 66 _ 38 __ 168 __ 30 _ 62 _100__ 192 _ 360 __ 86 _ 50 _ 86 __ 222 ____ 582

RJay ______________________ 78 _ 82 _ 96 __256 __ 90 _ 78 _ 22 __ 190 _ 446 __ 26 _ 50 _ 46 __ 122 ____ 568

___ Normal ________________ 72 _ 68 _ 46 __ 186 __ 40 _ 82 _ 82 __ 204 _ 390 __ 76 _ 20 _ 46 __ 142 ____ 532

RodneyS __________________ 62 _ 64 _ 46 __ 172 __ 72 _ 88 _ 70 __ 232 _ 404 __ 02 _ 42 _ 14 __ 058 ____ 462

Roger Smith _______________76 _ 40 _ 00 __ 116 __ 40 _ 88 22 __ 150 _ 266 __ 00 80 _ 36 __ 116 ____ 382

__________________________________________________________________________

Extreme forecast report __

DCA +1.4 _ not an extreme forecast outcome.

NYC +1.6 _ does not qualify (wxdude +1.6, fourth highest forecast) 

BOS +2.7 _ win for RJay (+2.5).

ORD +3.0 _ win for RJay (+2.5), loss for Don Sutherland1 (+3.6).  

ATL +0.9 _ does not qualify.

IAH --0.9 _ win for wxallannj (--0.9). 

DEN --1.2 _ win for wxallannj (--0.5).

PHX +4.0 _ win for Roger Smith (+3.0). 

SEA +2.7 _ win for wxallannj (+2.0).

 

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<<<<<< ================ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Apr) - - - - ==================== >>>>>>>> 

 

High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. 

 

FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS

 

DonSutherland1 ______________ 284 _288 _242 __814 __253 _292 _244 __789 __1603 __172 _278 _250 __700 ____ 2303

wxdude64 ____________________307 _313 _303 __923 __151 _212 _197 __560 __1483 __221 _295 _261 __ 777 ____ 2260

BKViking _____________________ 274 _310 _280 __864 __150 _274 _220 __644 __1508 __198 _276 _264 __738 ____ 2246

 

___ Consensus _______________ 304 _312 _276 __892 __146 _250 _218 __614 __ 1506 __172 _286 _256 __714 ____ 2220

 

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 294 _288 _286 __868 __159_278 _228 __665 __1533 __144 _268 _274 __686 ____ 2219

Tom __________________________ 306 _333 _315 __954 __118 _221 _214 __553 __1507 __168 _293 _206 __667 ____ 2174

wxallannj ______________________244 _284 _232 __760 __122 _210 _240 __572 __1332 __188 _274 _296 __758 ____ 2090

so_whats_happening __________ 305 _268 _207 __780 __179 _315 _147 __641 __1421 __129 _299 _224 __652 ____ 2073

RodneyS ______________________ 232 _264 _240 __736 __159 _242 _192 __591 __1329 __176 _292 _270 __738 ____ 2067

Scotty Lightning _______________ 258 _276 _224 __758 __ 58 _274 _244 __576 __ 1334 __184 _280 _262 __ 726 ____ 2060

RJay __________________________ 274 _278 _254 __806 __188 _224 _180 __592 __ 1398 __140 _220 _202 __562 ____ 1960

___ Normal ____________________ 208 _236 _214 __658 __ 50 _ 198 _212 __460 __ 1118 __234 _270 _250 __754 ____ 1872

Roger Smith ___________________ 198 _154 _ 84 __436 __151 _186 _236 __573 __ 1009 __134 _ 238 _234 __606 ____ 1615

____________________________________________________________________________

 

Best scores for the locations and regions 

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals

 

DonSutherland1 ______________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 2 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan 

wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t)

BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr

___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 0 __  

so_whats_happening _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) 

RodneyS _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ Feb 

Scotty Lightning ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

RJay _________________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

___ Normal ___________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0 __  

Roger Smith __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS

High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify.

So far this year, 22 locations out of 36 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March and 6 in April. Of those, 14 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 8 to coldest.

A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month.

Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There has been one shared win accounting for the 23 total wins (excl Normal). 

 

FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr ____ TOTAL to date

 

DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 ____ 5-1

Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 ____ 5-1

RJay ___________________ ---- __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 ____ 4-0

wxdude64 _____________ ---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ ---- ____ 3-0

so_whats_happening ___---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ ---- ____ 3-0

wxallannj ______________ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 3-0 ____ 3-0

Normal _________________---- __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ---- ____ 2-0

__________________________________________

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