Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,277
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    weatherman27
    Newest Member
    weatherman27
    Joined

2021-2022 ENSO


Recommended Posts

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 26MAY2021     23.4-0.5     26.7-0.3     27.6-0.3     28.8-0.1
 02JUN2021     23.2-0.4     26.6-0.2     27.6-0.2     28.8-0.2
 09JUN2021     23.2-0.0     26.7-0.0     27.8-0.0     28.9-0.1
 16JUN2021     23.3 0.4     26.0-0.5     27.2-0.5     28.8-0.2
 23JUN2021     22.9 0.2     26.3-0.0     27.6-0.0     29.0 0.0

About as neutral as you'll ever see this week. Subsurface is still slightly warm. Currently in Omega Block bliss here, with temperatures not topping the low 70s, rain, and no 90 degree readings in the forecast.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/21/2021 at 5:19 PM, raindancewx said:
               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05MAY2021     24.1-0.7     26.8-0.5     27.5-0.4     28.7-0.2
 12MAY2021     23.9-0.6     26.8-0.4     27.6-0.3     28.8-0.1
 19MAY2021     23.5-0.7     26.7-0.4     27.7-0.2     28.9-0.0
 26MAY2021     23.4-0.5     26.7-0.3     27.6-0.3     28.8-0.1
 02JUN2021     23.2-0.4     26.6-0.2     27.6-0.2     28.8-0.2
 09JUN2021     23.2-0.0     26.7-0.0     27.8-0.0     28.9-0.1
 16JUN2021     23.3 0.4     26.0-0.5     27.2-0.5     28.8-0.2

Subsurface has warmed up a bit this week. I've liked 2012-13 as a good precipitation analog for a while. It's pretty close on Levi's site too. The heat wave timing out here is fairly similar to June 2013, prior to a very wet July. GFS and to some extent Euro have been showing a pretty good wet period coming up soon here. CPC has it too now in the 6-10.

Screenshot-2021-06-21-5-17-33-PM

E5AkcQUWEAINVXT?format=png&name=medium

Jul13TDeptUS.png.11c5aefcf98a1e9683fffcd71b198b0a.png

The western part of the tropical pacific is very similar now to 2013. Eastern areas? Not really. Not yet anyway.

 05JUN2013     22.0-1.5     25.9-0.9     27.5-0.4     28.8-0.2
 12JUN2013     21.9-1.2     25.9-0.7     27.5-0.3     28.8-0.2
 19JUN2013     21.1-1.7     25.7-0.8     27.3-0.4     28.6-0.4
 26JUN2013     20.5-2.0     25.6-0.7     27.4-0.2     28.8-0.2
 02JUN2021     23.2-0.4     26.6-0.2     27.6-0.2     28.8-0.2
 09JUN2021     23.2-0.0     26.7-0.0     27.8-0.0     28.9-0.1
 16JUN2021     23.3 0.4     26.0-0.5     27.2-0.5     28.8-0.2
 23JUN2021     22.9 0.2     26.3-0.0     27.6-0.0     29.0 0.0
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I don't really a buy a La Nina this strong. But the trend toward a stronger La Nina is there on the Canadian for winter.

Canadian-Winter

My original idea back in March of a record strong Nina the next winter might end up right after all the way the models are trending. 

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Subsurface top matches for April-June 2021:

Blend Apr May Jun
1987 0.31 0.58 0.37
1987 0.31 0.58 0.37
2004 0.21 0.30 0.04
2011 0.58 0.47 0.39
2014 1.41 0.95 0.27
Mean 0.56 0.58 0.29
2021 0.60 0.65 0.32

June 1987 is a pretty good match to June 2021. Not likely to be a good match in July though.

Since the 1979 subsurface observations began, there has never been a June with the subsurface as warm as 2021 that went into a La Nina in winter. Years like 2000 were slightly positive in June, and then went into weak La Ninas though. Solar activity is also rapidly rising now. Monthly sunspot average was 16.2 from July 2020-June 2021. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Local precipitation patterns are a dead on match over the last year to some famous hurricane patterns for the US. Will be curious how that plays out this year.

Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 02JUN2021     23.2-0.4     26.6-0.2     27.6-0.2     28.8-0.2
 09JUN2021     23.2-0.0     26.7-0.0     27.8-0.0     28.9-0.1
 16JUN2021     23.3 0.4     26.0-0.5     27.2-0.5     28.8-0.2
 23JUN2021     22.9 0.2     26.3-0.0     27.6-0.0     29.0 0.0
 30JUN2021     22.6 0.3     26.2 0.0     27.5-0.1     28.8-0.1

June monthly data crossed into positive territory (more El Nino like than La Nina) against the 1951-2010 baseline I like to use for ENSO. Even against the more recent 30-year period, we're solidly Neutral now. We're still tracking fairly similarly to 2012 and 2013 in Nino 3.4 for the year. The June figure is also close to 2016 now.

Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Deformation Zone said:

Going back into the climatic data set, I don’t see many La Nina’s that didn’t have a secondary dip. I’m not sure it will be a full on La Niña, but it might flirt with weak La Niña status. 

This is especially true for stronger ninas. I know going by oni it was considered to be “only” a low end strong Nina, but going my MEI which in my opinion is a better indicator of enso strength, the 2010-2011 winter had the strongest nina on record, the inverse of the 2015-2016 nino). The following winter was a moderate Nina, similar to the strength of last years Nina (maybe a bit weaker). After the strong Nina of 2007-2008, a weak Nina followed. The correlation is not as strong with weak ninas,  but after every moderate or stronger Nina on that graph, another Nina followed the next winter. Right now the models are showing a weak Nina next year, but based on last years Enso, the trend from previous months, the spread of the model Enso data (wide range of outcomes, but most of the outliers are to the nina side), and the recent subsurface data, there is potential for the strength of the la nina to drastically increase. Just a couple of months ago, the subsurface was indicating that we could be headed into a moderate el nino, but the subsurface has significantly weakened since then, indicating that the transition to la nina is already starting. Right now I would rule out an El Niño of any strength based on what I’m seeing from the latest data and would lean towards a high end weak nina, and wouldnt yet rule out a moderate, or even low end strong nina.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The subsurface is still holding on to some warmth. If you look at 2016 or 2017, July is when all the orange and red gets flushed out completely on these images. It hasn't really happened yet. My hunch is we'll see a winter ENSO pattern a bit like one of the years from 1959-1962 for the winter. Those are neutral patterns, but there are blotches of warmth and cold in different months in different spots. Some pretty interesting winters actually.

The weird -Nino 4 / ++ WPO / -NAO combo from last year was reminiscent at times of 1959-60. You can see it pretty clearly looking at Dec/Feb in 2020-21 v. 1959-60.

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/10/2021 at 6:32 AM, EasternLI said:

The most recent guidance has shifted from a cold neutral mean to a high end weak/borderline moderate Nina mean. This will likely have a significant impact on winter forecasts, as model enso forecasts become much more accurate by summer. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think it will be anything significant, it could be organic though, meaning not connected to subsurface. 95-96 is an example. The subsurface is better correlated to the N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern than the surface by a significant margin (It's like 0.90 vs 0.70). When surface is La Nina and subsurface is Neutral, it's a more random pattern.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From 1950-2020, the Nino 3.4 reading in September has never dropped by more than 1C by the following DJF, despite model predictions last fall of a -1.5 or -2.0 level event in winter (25.0C or colder).

June finished at 27.48C in Nino 3.4. So the question is...what is the transition from June to September? July looks like it will be at coldest 27.0C, and even that assumes rapid cooling late month. Last July was 26.99C in Nino 3.4, I'd say the first half of July 2021 is 27.4C or so. August 2020 then fell to 26.26C. That's a pretty cold reading for that early in the year. The subsurface for July so far is still slightly positive. It was already -0.18 last year. I would never really rule out a La Nina at this juncture, but it's either a late bloomer kind of like how 2017 was, or a much weaker one than last year. I still lean Neutral. 

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 16JUN2021     23.3 0.4     26.0-0.5     27.2-0.5     28.8-0.2
 23JUN2021     22.9 0.2     26.3-0.0     27.6-0.0     29.0 0.0
 30JUN2021     22.6 0.3     26.2 0.0     27.5-0.1     28.8-0.1
 07JUL2021     22.2 0.1     26.0-0.0     27.4-0.0     28.9-0.1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Deformation Zone said:

It’s going to be weaker than last year, the subsurface is just to “warm” at this point. 

It is too warm for a a 2010-2011 super nina type winter, but the subsurface has cooled quite a bit over the past few weeks. Just over a month ago there was talk of a possible weak or even moderate El Niño, but since then the subsurface, hurricane activity, and model guidance have been indicating La Niña. When combined with the tendency for moderate and strong ninas to have a double dip, I wouldn’t rule out a high end moderate or low end strong Nina yet. It is unlikely, but is still within the realm of possibilities. I’m leaning towards a 2017-2018 type of La Niña, both similar in strength and late blooming nature. The biggest red flag that the La Niña could be stronger than expected for me is the strength of the La Niña last year. Last year was a moderate La Niña, but it was a high end moderate/borderline strong Nina. That is the strongest La Niña we have had since the super Nina of 2010-2011. The stronger the first year Nina, the stronger the signal is for a double dip, and it also increases the ceiling of the Nina (usually ends up slightly weaker than the first).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, George001 said:

It is too warm for a a 2010-2011 super nina type winter, but the subsurface has cooled quite a bit over the past few weeks. Just over a month ago there was talk of a possible weak or even moderate El Niño, but since then the subsurface, hurricane activity, and model guidance have been indicating La Niña. When combined with the tendency for moderate and strong ninas to have a double dip, I wouldn’t rule out a high end moderate or low end strong Nina yet. It is unlikely, but is still within the realm of possibilities. I’m leaning towards a 2017-2018 type of La Niña, both similar in strength and late blooming nature. The biggest red flag that the La Niña could be stronger than expected for me is the strength of the La Niña last year. Last year was a moderate La Niña, but it was a high end moderate/borderline strong Nina. That is the strongest La Niña we have had since the super Nina of 2010-2011. The stronger the first year Nina, the stronger the signal is for a double dip, and it also increases the ceiling of the Nina (usually ends up slightly weaker than the first).

I still can't wrap my head around La Nina's influence on severe weather. 2010 was an excellent chase year, 2011 had the epic April and the late May sequence that included Joplin and El Reno I, but 2018 and this year were both very weak springs for :twister:activity.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/13/2021 at 8:22 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

In the beginning part of an underperforming solar cycle-ascension phase, we favor more La Nina's 

2009 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.6

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

2010 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 -1.3 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6
2011 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0
2012 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2

I really like this point for the next 5 years, although I wouldn't rule out 1 Super Nino. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last year, the La Nina was here in August, and it arguably peaked right around Halloween, before dying off in March/April. Some of the other things I look at favor a pretty warm winter down here (it's actually been several years since we've had a hot winter),  but I don't expect the precipitation totals to be as dire as last year or 2017-18 if a late forming La Nina develops. The SOI has magically shot up to near +12 in recent days, so the indicators still lean cold ENSO in some form. April-June all had neutral SOI values for comparison. Will run the figures against the long-term data when July is over.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the last time a second year la nina with a lull during the summer was 2011-12...there was a big gap between 2016-17 and 2017-18 la ninas..2008-09, 1984-85 and 1974-75...lets hope another la nina forms because of a neutral after nina winter scenario...1996-97 comes to mind...85-86 and 2001-02 too...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Subsurface has flipped negative this week which is a good sign for a La Nina. July should be near neutral or slightly negative for the subsurface. Still need to cool the surface a lot though.

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 02JUN2021     23.2-0.4     26.6-0.2     27.6-0.2     28.8-0.2
 09JUN2021     23.2-0.0     26.7-0.0     27.8-0.0     28.9-0.1
 16JUN2021     23.3 0.4     26.0-0.5     27.2-0.5     28.8-0.2
 23JUN2021     22.9 0.2     26.3-0.0     27.6-0.0     29.0 0.0
 30JUN2021     22.6 0.3     26.2 0.0     27.5-0.1     28.8-0.1
 07JUL2021     22.2 0.1     26.0-0.0     27.4-0.0     28.9-0.1
 14JUL2021     22.2 0.4     25.9 0.1     27.2-0.1     28.6-0.4

Here is last year for comparison. We're nowhere near as cold overall. I know people talk about 2020-21 as a Moderate La Nina, but in winter, if you use 26.5C as average, it was a weak La Nina, and barely spent any time as a moderate. Only two months were -1.0C or colder v. the 1951-2010 monthly averages. We're running +0.2C or so warmer currently than 2020 in Nino 3.4, which finished at -0.9C (25.57C or so) in winter.

 03JUN2020     23.1-0.4     26.0-0.8     27.3-0.5     29.0 0.0
 10JUN2020     22.2-1.0     25.7-1.0     27.1-0.7     28.8-0.2
 17JUN2020     22.2-0.7     25.7-0.8     27.2-0.6     29.1 0.1
 24JUN2020     21.6-1.0     25.8-0.5     27.6-0.0     29.3 0.3
 01JUL2020     21.1-1.2     25.5-0.6     27.3-0.2     29.1 0.1
 08JUL2020     21.1-0.9     25.3-0.6     27.2-0.3     29.1 0.1
 15JUL2020     20.2-1.5     25.1-0.7     27.0-0.3     28.8-0.1

The current 'colder Nino 4' v. 'warmer' Nino 1.2/3 look is opposite July 2019/2020. Somewhat like 2012 and 2011. A blend of 2011/2012 is pretty close in all four zones currently.

 06JUN2012     24.7 1.3     27.1 0.3     27.8 0.0     28.6-0.4
 13JUN2012     24.4 1.3     27.1 0.5     27.9 0.2     28.6-0.4
 20JUN2012     24.3 1.5     27.1 0.6     28.0 0.3     28.8-0.2
 27JUN2012     23.8 1.4     27.1 0.8     28.1 0.5     28.9-0.1
 04JUL2012     23.2 1.0     26.8 0.7     27.9 0.4     28.8-0.2
 11JUL2012     22.6 0.7     26.6 0.7     27.7 0.3     28.8-0.2
 01JUN2011     24.3 0.7     26.8-0.0     27.5-0.3     28.4-0.6
 08JUN2011     24.2 0.9     26.7-0.0     27.5-0.3     28.4-0.5
 15JUN2011     23.8 0.8     26.6 0.0     27.4-0.3     28.4-0.6
 22JUN2011     23.2 0.5     26.5 0.1     27.4-0.2     28.4-0.6
 29JUN2011     22.9 0.5     26.1-0.1     27.4-0.2     28.6-0.4
 06JUL2011     22.2 0.2     25.8-0.2     27.1-0.4     28.5-0.5
 13JUL2011     21.9 0.1     25.7-0.1     27.1-0.3     28.5-0.4
 02JUN2021     23.2-0.4     26.6-0.2     27.6-0.2     28.8-0.2
 09JUN2021     23.2-0.0     26.7-0.0     27.8-0.0     28.9-0.1
 16JUN2021     23.3 0.4     26.0-0.5     27.2-0.5     28.8-0.2
 23JUN2021     22.9 0.2     26.3-0.0     27.6-0.0     29.0 0.0
 30JUN2021     22.6 0.3     26.2 0.0     27.5-0.1     28.8-0.1
 07JUL2021     22.2 0.1     26.0-0.0     27.4-0.0     28.9-0.1
 14JUL2021     22.2 0.4     25.9 0.1     27.2-0.1     28.6-0.4
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I ran the numbers for April-June monthly conditions in Nino 3, Nino 3.4, and Nino 4. The best single match is 1967. But it is a terrible match to actual weather in the US. The other years that come up in multiple zones are all over the place for conditions. The general theme was years that match best to Apr-Jun become La Nina or Neutral winters...but they fade quickly to El Ninos in late winter.

April-June 1959 is also a shockingly good match to April-June 2021 for US precipitation. Best match easily since the 1890s. I've mentioned I'm looking at 1959-1962 as a period for potential winter analogs - so this does support that.

Image

Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing to keep in mind too is the subsurface still isn't super-reliable as an indicator in July. If you went by this image, 2016 was the big La Nina relative to 2017. But it wasn't. It was already dead in February in February 2017. The 2017-18 was much more powerful, just started later.

Subsurface-2017-2017

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...