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7 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

it snows all the way north into OK. Seems like a model bust, in a good way

Might bust in two separate directions given the lack of accumulations in northern Dallas

EDIT: Seems to be making a transition back to rain. Oh well was fun while it lasted!

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15 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Might bust in two separate directions given the lack of accumulations in northern Dallas

EDIT: Seems to be making a transition back to rain. Oh well was fun while it lasted!

interesting. i should be really close to you. still heavy snow.

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Latest FWD AFD still pretty aggressive with their snow totals. Not sure I agree but they have the degrees and experience not me lol 

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8 minutes ago, SWineman said:

Yeah but will that be fast enough. Unless that snow back fills,  the end of the snow is approaching a bit faster than forecast.

not an expert. but im seeing the back end of the snow still far into central tx?

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No longer snowing here. Snowed for like 2 hours but could never properly accumulate on the ground.

Edit: transitioned back to very light flurries but nowhere near what it was before.

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20 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

No longer snowing here. Snowed for like 2 hours but could never properly accumulate on the ground.

Edit: transitioned back to very light flurries but nowhere near what it was before.

Still nothing here. Increasingly skeptical we'll see anything meaningful later. Hourly has us at a 100% chance of precip which, uh, yeah...

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A dusting so far north of Tyler. I think we will see 2-3" maybe more if the stuff down by Waco makes it up here as the sun goes down.

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It has been dumping for the past half hour or so. I'd say we have half an inch with several hours left of heavier snow and likely a few more hours of light snow after that. We look to get upwards of 4" at this rate.

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9 hours ago, cheese007 said:

Hey now we could get some virga! The sky's the limit!

 

Well I called that one lmao

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With recent pattern change any chance of wintry weather in N TX is on pause, and may be for some time. Continued signals of a NPJ retraction at the end of this month points to a warm start to Feb for the central and eastern US and cooler for the western US.

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Despite the reputation of La Nina, it does seem like West Texas and north Texas often do fairly well for snow early on in La Ninas. There were some pretty impressive snow events in 2017-18, 2008-09, and 2005-06 really far into the South just off the top of my head. I think Houston, Austin, Brownsville, San Antonio and New Orleans have all had snow in recent La Ninas. Not each city in each year, but you get brief windows.

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16 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Despite the reputation of La Nina, it does seem like West Texas and north Texas often do fairly well for snow early on in La Ninas. There were some pretty impressive snow events in 2017-18, 2008-09, and 2005-06 really far into the South just off the top of my head. I think Houston, Austin, Brownsville, San Antonio and New Orleans have all had snow in recent La Ninas. Not each city in each year, but you get brief windows.

I haven't looked at the specific dates for those years in particular but despite it being difficult for snowfall in N TX, it's even more difficult during La Nina unless you get some sort of an anomalous pattern earlier this season (more El Nino like) or we are in the right place right time during some sort of pattern transition. Plus as you know there are other factors as well such as SSWs which can throw a wrench in things. Either way, near term, not looking great as synoptics are finally settling into more of a La Nina regime.

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The past week has been very El Nino feeling with mild temps and constant light rain or drizzle basically 24/7. The past 3 days have been constantly foggy with today being the worst with visibilities under 1/4 mile for much of the day.

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Texas is heading for the deep freeze beginning Tuesday next week! A nearly 1058 mb Arctic high will move out of the northwest territories and plunge into the lower 48. This will be the coldest of the season for many and for DFW, likely the coldest air in over two years (since January 2018). It also looks like a protracted cold air outbreak lasting until early the following week. The core of this outbreak looks to occur Thursday through the weekend of Valentine's where temperatures are likely to be in the teens at DFW (even in the heat island) with highs struggling to get out of the 20s. There could be multiple days of subfreezing temperatures. Also, there is some signal for light frozen precipitation, though it looks like moisture may be hard to come by given the setup. This Arctic blast also may send subfreezing temperatures into the lower Rio Grande Valley.

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