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June 2-3 Severe Weather


snowlover2
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32 minutes ago, Solidsting said:

hmm im getting vibes of the 1998 southern great lakes derecho. i hope the setup holds true for the overnight hours.

The thermodynamic setting is similar but the shear doesn't look quite as good extending to south and east.  Derecho's can sometimes be CAPE-driven towards the end of their life-cycle though.  The MCS can generate it's own shear via a rear-inflow jet.  I'm worried if there's strong dry rear-inflow jet it could re-intensify coming in off the lake like in 1998.  Sometimes a very cold Lake Michigan marine layer causes an air-hockey table effect.  The rear-inflow can accelerate as it glides over the smooth surface of the marine inversion.  It then crashes to the ground when it reaches the shore.

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1 hour ago, Solidsting said:

yeah im just excited. id be happy with a regular bowing segment plowing thru. been quite a few years here since ive seen an actual powerful storm cross my area. last few years anything that headed this way usually weakened unfortunately.

Yea.  I enjoyed watching the Florida-style lake breeze stuff last week, but it was pretty hit-or-miss in terms of actually having a proper storm in your back yard.  I'm hoping for a good light show tonight.  Though the storms themselves are still a long way off I can see the anvil canopy spreading in from the NW now.  

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The boarderline severe cells in SON split the gap between my west and east!! :lmao: I saw some amazing clouds just around 8. Once again we get nothing when not far off the shoreline and Toronto are getting a pretty good show, unreal. This was the best chance for southern Grey county like Hanover/Walkerton to get a severe thunderstorm in a very long time...

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Line totally weakened and split apart over West Michigan.  :(  Outflow got way ahead of the convection.  Ludington got a pretty strong cell with a lot of lighting, but the southern part of the line kind of ate crap despite decent lingering instability and steep EML lapse rates.

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Impressive 75 MPH wind gust recorded on the bridge of the ship Maitowoc while it was in the middle of lake Michigan last night.  I am not sure I could handle being 30 miles offshore and dealing with those storms at night.  

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