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Quincy

Severe Weather May 20-25, 27th, 2020

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If the immediate DFW area were in that watch, we'd be on the far eastern edge. As they mention that an increasing tornado threat may materialize in the evening, would that lead to a new WW a bit farther east later on (perhaps including more of the DFW area)?

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17 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

If the immediate DFW area were in that watch, we'd be on the far eastern edge. As they mention that an increasing tornado threat may materialize in the evening, would that lead to a new WW a bit farther east later on (perhaps including more of the DFW area)?

Wouldn't be shocked. We're expected to have our weather a good bit later

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Attempts at convective initiation around Graham and Jacksboro seem to be struggling at this moment.  Some light radar returns are present there, although nothing significant has formed yet.

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Pretty strongly worded AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
206 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE OVERNIGHT PLAINS CONVECTION MADE A RUN AT NORTH TEXAS, BUT 
ALL THAT REMAINS IS A STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE
FROM GRAHAM TO DENTON TO BONHAM. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS  
GRAVITY WAVES CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CUMULUS
FIELD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, WHICH IS A SIGN OF A VERY STRONG 
CAPPING INVERSION. THIS INVERSION IS VERIFIED ON RECENT AMDAR 
SOUNDINGS, AND WE'LL BE SENDING UP A BALLOON WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO 
TO SAMPLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE THERMODYNAMIC AND MOISTURE PROFILE.

OBVIOUSLY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE AN IMPORTANT MESOSCALE 
FEATURE THAT WILL IMPACT NOT ONLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION, BUT ALSO 
STORM MODE AND HAZARDS. THE BACKING OF WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY 
HAS SERVED TO INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES NOTABLY, RESULTING 
IN AN ENVIRONMENT NOW SUPPORTIVE OF PROLONGED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE INSOLATION HAS BEEN 
EXCELLENT ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH MLCAPE LIKELY TO EXCEED 3500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 
GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND PREDICTION OF SLOW EASTWARD RIGHT 
MOVING SUPERCELLS, IT IS LIKELY THAT ACTUAL SUPERCELL MOTIONS WILL
BE EVEN MORE RIGHTWARD OR DUE SOUTH. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS IT WILL
IMPACT THE STORM COVERAGE AND EVOLUTION. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS 
WE'VE SEEN THE HRRR TREND TOWARD MORE SUPERCELLULAR COVERAGE WHICH
IS INHERENTLY MORE SCATTERED AND THEREFORE SUGGESTS LESS STORM 
COVERAGE THAN A MULTICELL CLUSTER OR LINE WOULD HAVE PRODUCED. 
THIS MORE SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE IS ALSO VERIFIED BY THE WOFS 
WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTING THE SUPERCELL THREAT PRIMARILY OVER THE 
NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS WHERE WE HAVE ALREADY 
SEEN A FEW FAILED ATTEMPTS AT INITIATION. 

SINCE MATURE STORM MOTION MAY TEND TO TAKE IT SOUTHWARD, IT MAY 
BE A WHILE BEFORE STORMS CAN INITIATE FARTHER EAST (EAST OF
I-35/I-35E AND NORTH OF I-30) WHERE STORM COVERAGE IS MORE IN 
QUESTION. SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR OUR 
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM. WE'VE AGREED TO WATCH HOW 
TRENDS EVOLVE BEFORE GOING TOO FAR EAST WITH A WATCH. LIKEWISE 
WE'RE CONCERNED THAT THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AROUND SUNSET, SO THIS WATCH EXPIRING AT 8 PM ALLOWS AN
ASSESSMENT OF THOSE TRENDS THIS EVENING. FOR NOW THE PRIMARY 
THREAT LOOKS LIKE VERY LARGE HAIL - POSSIBLY UP TO BASEBALL SIZE -
AS WE ANTICIPATE THAT WE'LL HAVE MORE SUSTAINED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES THAN WE WERE EARLIER. GIVEN THE ALREADY SLOW MOTION OF
SUPERCELLS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME NEARLY STATIONARY 
OR STALLED CELLS EITHER WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED MULTI-INCH
RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. 

BY THIS EVENING WE DO EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS AND EVENTUALLY
ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL SHOULD DEVELOP TO HELP SEND CELLS
SOUTHEASTWARD EITHER AS A MULTICELL CLUSTER OR BROKEN LINE. THE 
EVENING HOURS PROBABLY REPRESENT MOST OF THE DFW METROPLEX'S BEST 
SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF I-20 BY
MIDNIGHT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT THE INTENSITY/COVERAGE SHOULD 
DECREASE AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE. 
THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED SCATTERED STORMS 
DEVELOPING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF I-20, AS THIS IS 
ADVERTISED BY A COUPLE OF THE MODELS. SO WE CAN'T SAY FOR SURE 
THAT ONCE THE FIRST ROUND MOVES THROUGH THAT NORTHERN AREAS WILL 
BE DONE WITH THE EVENT. 

THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS ON
SATURDAY AND HAVE KEPT POPS LOW BUT ADVERTISED LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT IT SHOULD BE VERY MUGGY WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING. 

TR.92

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Looks like there is a major hail storm ongoing northwest of Wichita Falls now, it is warned for up to 3-inch hail.  There may be some additional attempts at convective initation in the Graham/Jacksboro area per radar and satellite imagery; some of the ingredients there seem better for severe weather (supercell composite, SigTor, EHI, etc.), compared with southern OK, although that Red River storm is in a perfect position to produce large hail.

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Surprise surprise, cap over DFW is still holding with no sign of breaking any time soon

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
603 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHWESTERN COTTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...  
  NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...  
  CENTRAL WICHITA COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 603 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST  
  OF GRANDFIELD, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.  
  
  HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED.   
           EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS,   
           SIDING, AND VEHICLES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  NORTHERN WICHITA FALLS, BURKBURNETT, GRANDFIELD, DEAN, RANDLETT,  
  DEVOL, SHEPPARD AFB, TAYLOR, CHARLIE AND CASHION.

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Tornado warning also issued for that storm just northwest of Wichita Falls.  Radar indicated at this time.

EDIT: confirmed tornado west of Burkburnett according to livestream from Channel 6 in Wichita Falls.

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6 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

Tornado warning also issued for that storm just northwest of Wichita Falls.  Radar indicated at this time.

EDIT: confirmed tornado west of Burkburnett according to livestream from Channel 6 in Wichita Falls.

Yeah, looking like intermittent touchdowns(?) for the time being. The storm made a hard right and has a nice presentation on radar.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0674
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0620 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

   Areas affected...North Texas...Southern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203...

   Valid 222320Z - 230115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue near the Red River over the
   next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...A right-moving supercell is ongoing near the Red River
   which located close to a maximum in instability. A pocket of strong
   instability is analyzed by the RAP near and to the south of the Red
   River with MLCAPE in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg range. The WSR 88D-VWP at
   Frederick shows veering winds with height in the lowest 2 km AGL
   with 0-6 km shear near 45 kt. As low-level winds increase over the
   next couple of hours, the tornado threat will likely increase
   locally. The greatest threat will exist with the right-moving
   supercell as it tracks just to the south of the Red River.
 

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I think this could be a large rain-wrapped tornado now, based on radar

Quote

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and baseball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado about 5 miles west of 
         Burkburnett. 

 

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Just now, Chinook said:

I think this could be a large rain-wrapped tornado now, based on radar

 

Yeah, showing a BWER and a more intense couplet, I think.

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Sig Tor parameters are highest in south central to se OK probably because of the higher bulk shear in that area.  But I am leery of the se backed winds over the metroplex with a cap that at 10 is certainly not thermonuclear.

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I'm starting to wonder if SPC overestimated the effects of the outflow boundary with respect to their re-positioning of the ENH risk earlier.  The significant hail is currently materializing north of the ENH risk and the hatching, but that storm SW of Bellevue, TX still bears watching, especially if it becomes a right-mover.  That storm has just taken on supercellular characteristics (including a hook), so it may take a right turn pretty soon.

 

EDIT: couplet SW of Bellevue:

 

4A77B178-84F6-46CD-9868-596324157762.jpeg

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There's a new tornado warning east of Burkburnett. The original supercell regenerated the circulation.

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Storm over Wichita Falls looks to be developing rotation.  It looks as if that storm has caught up to the outflow boundary ahead of it and is latching onto that OFB.

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Another possible tornado near Bowie, TX

Quote

    
* At 827 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Bellevue, or 7 miles west of Bowie, moving east at
  10 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and hail up to two inches in diameter.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

 

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18 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Storm west of Little Rock is starting to rotate 

There has been a tornado reported near Monroe, OK, which is probably what you were talking about?  South of Fort Smith AR.

New tornado warning near Mansfield AR, just to the northeast of the other storm, which still has a tornado warning.

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This area and the Wichita Falls environs have really been getting pounded this evening with one svr storm after another.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
915 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 915 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST  
  OF NEWPORT, MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.  
  
  HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT   
           CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES.   
           EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  BELLEVUE, NEWPORT, VASHTI AND JOY.   

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Aside from the risk for hail, tornadoes, and wind, I am getting very concerned about flooding potential near and west of Bowie, TX.  These storms have stalled over this area for quite some time, with heavy precipitation, and they may only now be starting to increase their forward motion.  There are also other storms behind this complex as well.

The big question is whether this complex will take a right turn and impact the northern areas of the Metroplex.

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