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Chinook

Mountain West Discussion

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I think my place has 1". So far, I don't think any tree limbs will break. We are just getting out of a heavier band on radar-- there might not be so much left of this storm.

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yeah, radar really looks like things are moving out quickly. This happens every time. We got about 1" as well, have to go measure. Total precipitation on the order of 0.6" WE at the most, perhaps less. My new rain gauge needs re-calibrating as compared with the stations nearby. Temp 31 at 10 PM.

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I'm pretty sure I got something like 1.2" -1.3" on the ground.  Fort Collins has a spotter report of 4.7".  The rain gauge at Fort Collins-CSU is up to 0.96" since it started. I think my place might have gotten 0.6" water equivalent.

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I think I got 3-3.5" of snow on elevated surfaces, maybe 2.5" on the ground, 0.93+ on water equivalent.  Some rain and drizzle occurred in a couple of time periods. There were some flakes even today.

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Here in SE CO we didn't get any snow.  Lamar recorded a low this morning of 35.6°F, which is not a record.  The high was 42.8°F.  This beats the old record for lowest maximum by 30°!!!  So, now I'm wondering what the record is for obliterating an old record!  If you went back to the first 30 or 40 years of recordkeeping you would find that a lot, but I bet it hasn't happened in close to 70 or 80 years.  Wow.

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A little bit off topic here-- but when somebody tells you that they expect the weatherman to be right all the time...  (Tropical Depression 20)

99vjiBF.jpg

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The ACE index in the Atlantic is still remarkably low for how many storms we've had named this year. Even if the second half of the season was ~50% above average, we'd finish around 125 ACE. Pretty promising development for the West. 

After Tuesday/Wednesday, everything may either be dead or on land or extra tropical, except for Teddy. I don't really think Sally or Paulette are going to hurricanes real long either.

The La Nina years with near average ACE in the Atlantic and low ACE in the East Pacific are pretty good winters for the West generally (1974, 1975, 1988, 2000, 2007)

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No posts in a week so I thought I'd bump this up.

Drought monitor for CO is only slightly better despite the snow/rain early last week. Lots of D3 happening.

Denver has a couple more chances to break the all-time record for most 90 degree days in a year, currently tied with 2012.

Anybody have anything else to report? Still quite warm and dry and smoky here, though the (irrigated) tomato harvest is better than it's been in quite a while. (were able to protect them last week)

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5 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

No posts in a week so I thought I'd bump this up.

Drought monitor for CO is only slightly better despite the snow/rain early last week. Lots of D3 happening.

Denver has a couple more chances to break the all-time record for most 90 degree days in a year, currently tied with 2012.

Anybody have anything else to report? Still quite warm and dry and smoky here, though the (irrigated) tomato harvest is better than it's been in quite a while. (were able to protect them last week)

We have been in the voluntary evac zone along CR43 from the Cameron Peak fire since Labor Day. Thankfully the snow really put the hurt on it, but it got pretty close that Monday and we got out. It was hairy for a while and we wondered which would get here first, snow or the fire. We came back in the snow the following day.  I spent all of that day closing the pool so that pipes and pumps wouldn't freeze...what a bizarre two days that was. It has been tranquil up here ever since, gentle winds with temps in the 70s and nice cool nights.

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No 90s down here since the cold snap mid-month. We're likely done until next May or June. That should be one of the larger breaks in 90 degree we've had in a while after around 90 days that were 90 or hotter this year (average is ~64).

I've been working on my winter forecast. Still watching the hurricane season for the winter forecast. After the current storms die out mid-week I'm somewhat hopeful we get an extended break in storm or at least hurricane formation for a bit. We've never had a cold Western winter since the 1930s in a La Nina with the ACE over 160. I still lean toward around 135 ACE total, but it could jump to over 160 if it keeps up at this pace for the remainder of the year. I don't really buy ~40 storms for the season though. 

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12 hours ago, ValpoVike said:

We have been in the voluntary evac zone along CR43 from the Cameron Peak fire since Labor Day. Thankfully the snow really put the hurt on it, but it got pretty close that Monday and we got out. It was hairy for a while and we wondered which would get here first, snow or the fire. We came back in the snow the following day.  I spent all of that day closing the pool so that pipes and pumps wouldn't freeze...what a bizarre two days that was. It has been tranquil up here ever since, gentle winds with temps in the 70s and nice cool nights.

Wow! let's hope you don't encounter that again.

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The next 48 hours look to be really concerning for Red Feather Lakes.  The northern portion of the fire has become quite active, and with the strong WSW winds tomorrow and Saturday it could be pretty bad.  There are a lot of homes and cabins in that area.

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5 hours ago, wdrag said:

Anyone from CA/Nevada/Arizona on this Mountain west discussion group - in particular fire danger? Already WY in critical this week and looks threatening again in the desert SW next week.  Just need to know where to check on this forum. Thank you, Walt

Strangely, I don't think there are any active posters from that area in this subforum. But it's great to have you Walt- a legend from when I was back East in SNE- come by more often! Agree, WY is seldom in the situation it's in this week... often by now they've had their first couple of snows. There was a poster on the Weather5280 blog who pointed out that September has become an extension of summer over the past decade, rather than the beginning of Fall- warm and dry continuing . That trend is moving north.

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3 hours ago, ValpoVike said:

The next 48 hours look to be really concerning for Red Feather Lakes.  The northern portion of the fire has become quite active, and with the strong WSW winds tomorrow and Saturday it could be pretty bad.  There are a lot of homes and cabins in that area.

That little fire keeps on going and going, soon to be in the top two largest fires in CO history if it keeps up. Consistent cooler and wetter weather can't come soon enough. That area is gorgeous.

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I have not posted for a while, since the weather has not done much here. In fact, it is possible that my area could be above normal for the month after having 42/32 on September 9th, which was very below average. I am sorry to hear that the fire is spreading toward Red Feather Lakes. That is a nice little place. This fire season has been awful.

 

Edit: most of the trees in the neighborhood are still green, even though we had snow and 32 degrees. Several trees show some splotches of yellow leaves. The silver maple trees are a combination of green, yellow, and red,  so I guess those ones are confused. A few trees have partially wilted leaves.

NWS Boulder posted this on their web site:

IXDb3PU.jpg

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3 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

That little fire keeps on going and going, soon to be in the top two largest fires in CO history if it keeps up. Consistent cooler and wetter weather can't come soon enough. That area is gorgeous.

Yeah, this fire does keep going and going.  I think we are at 6 weeks today on this fire.  Many folks around Glen Haven (and I suspect elsewhere in Larimer) have something like PTSD due to the constant threat of this thing, myself included.  With all of the beetle kill, we expected that this would happen one day.  I am definitely looking forward to tracking snowstorms...

 

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Tonight is a nice clear night. I looked out at the moon, and it looks like Jupiter and Saturn are nearby.

 

just saw this on twitter

taHROAB.jpg

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15 hours ago, Chinook said:

Tonight is a nice clear night. I looked out at the moon, and it looks like Jupiter and Saturn are nearby.

 

Saturn (on the left), the Moon and Jupiter will make a nice triangle in the south tonight, with Mars slowly catching up from the east over the next few days.

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