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Holston_River_Rambler

NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21

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I don't know, but those back side bands love to do that as these systems pull away. 


Yeah it could be just wrapping back from Cyclogenesis. Could be some good ratios in that though.


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Ended up near an inch, but temps rose from 32 to 34 once it stopped, so just have a coating left on the ground.

Snow came down fast and furious for a few hours, and if we had been colder, it would have been easy to score 3+.  So, I suppose the NAM and HRRR/RAP were both right.  We probably had 3 inches of snow fall like the NAM showed, but in the end, only had a light coating like the other short range models showed.  

I guess it's better than a cold rain.  At least it was more enjoyable to watch. 

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9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Yeah it could be just wrapping back from Cyclogenesis. Could be some good ratios in that though.

I think part of it is the lee side convergence we saw a few weeks ago. the bands I have outlined in white seem to come off of the plateau in TN and VA. So if there is sinking air as it moves down the plateau, it runs into the down valley flow and you get convergence.

giphy.gif

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I have had a few heavy showers this evening. always nice to see. 

I was wondering if you were getting anything out of that


.

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1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:


I was wondering if you were getting anything out of that


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Yes, it came down pretty good for a few minutes. Looks like it's going to be the last shot and it looks like it's getting ragged as it leaves the Plateau area.

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Looking back at modeling from 12z Wednesday. NAM had me with .32 precip, Euro .22, GFS .11, Canadian .10. NAM had me with 2.5 inches of snow ratio'd map with a 2 inch snow depth. Euro had me with 2 inches but doesn't have a depth map I can access. GFS/Canadian had me with a dusting.  

So it looks like the Euro/NAM were best for mby from 24 hours before the event started.

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Bays Mt. Lee band strikes again, this time randomly in the middle of the night (230 - 3 AM).

giphy.gif

Looks like you have to get the wind at just the right angle. 

Winds flowing over Bays mt and the three other ridges south of it downsloping and spreading out, then winds banking up against the mountains, then the general flow down the valley:

Screen Shot 2020-02-21 at 7.27.21 AM

 

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Looks like the NAM and ECMWF did the best. They had sticking snow pretty well. They correctly blanked Chattanooga proper, but said yes up on Signal. However the Euro was too warm where snow stuck best. NAM was too cold in places. HRRR nailed the stubborn 40 degrees in KCHA. GFS was a debacle.

HRRR > GFS like Warren beating down Bloomberg in the debate. I know we're not supposed to be political, but that was WWE folding chair regardless of your politics. I'm not saying I agree with any side, but that's what happens to Chattanooga every time cold air is not totally in place first.

Time for the KU meme again. Save Chattanooga from the 40 degree chair!

KU_Chair.jpg.fa91d2d3ad5a028c0c382320ff1f2a1d.jpg

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We got down to 15 degrees this morning with the snow cover. It's only up to 21 so far, but by the end of the day most of this should be gone. It sounds like it was a bust for most of the forum but mainly due to temperature issues and not precip. I'm not sure what made it stick so easily here (even to the roadways until mostly melting later) but I guess a few degrees in ground temps can make a huge difference. Like I said in a previous post, I watched Cookeville's weather cam some yesterday and every time it looked like it was just pouring snow but the grass was still green and it's only 20 miles west of here, but off the Plateau. 

Looks like there could be more snow chances middle of next week so hopefully that one will be better for everyone.

87122949_546698912611069_7879910900935688192_n.jpg?_nc_cat=105&_nc_ohc=hhkc-lxrLoIAX9f4y_d&_nc_ht=scontent.fewr1-5.fna&_nc_tp=7&oh=c6722be7795adf0d3f281e161f334fd2&oe=5EC1CE68

 

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Recorded .47 in the rain gauge.  90% of that fell as snow, so if temps had been colder, it would have been the biggest snow event since 2015 IMBY.  

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3 hours ago, Shocker0 said:

We got down to 15 degrees this morning with the snow cover. It's only up to 21 so far, but by the end of the day most of this should be gone. It sounds like it was a bust for most of the forum but mainly due to temperature issues and not precip. I'm not sure what made it stick so easily here (even to the roadways until mostly melting later) but I guess a few degrees in ground temps can make a huge difference. Like I said in a previous post, I watched Cookeville's weather cam some yesterday and every time it looked like it was just pouring snow but the grass was still green and it's only 20 miles west of here, but off the Plateau. 

Looks like there could be more snow chances middle of next week so hopefully that one will be better for everyone.

87122949_546698912611069_7879910900935688192_n.jpg?_nc_cat=105&_nc_ohc=hhkc-lxrLoIAX9f4y_d&_nc_ht=scontent.fewr1-5.fna&_nc_tp=7&oh=c6722be7795adf0d3f281e161f334fd2&oe=5EC1CE68

 

Crossville was 31 during the event. It made all the difference in the world. 

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15 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Crossville was 31 during the event. It made all the difference in the world. 

Yeah that's crazy, I know it makes a difference, I just didn't realize how much a degree or two would affect it sticking if it was coming down pretty hard regardless. I went to Monterey this morning (they usually get the same or more snow than where I live despite being about 100-200ft lower than us) and going down the small hill from Cumberland County to Putnam County it was like the accumulation just stopped and by the time I got to Monterey there was almost nothing left. One of the local meteorologists shared this map this morning. It was a finicky system.

 

image.png.27817fc6fd2ba87dc1f6f3796f2b6a72.png

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Side note, I lived in Southeast Kentucky in 2004 and I remembered a big snow being hyped in mid February that year. They were calling for around a foot of snow and had already canceled school the day before in anticipation.

Well, we went to church that night (I believe it was a Wednesday night or a revival maybe, but during the week) on Brimstone Mountain south of Oneida, TN. The snow was supposed to come in later that evening and snow all night. We were driving South and were seeing cars coming in the northbound lanes with snow caked on the front of their cars, but there was no snow anywhere on the ground in Oneida.

Once we got up to the church we found the snow and it was pouring extremely heavy. Church was canceled so we turned around just to try to get out safely because of how quick it was piling up. By the time we got down the hill, there was no snow again. We went back home that night and woke up the next morning to no snow at all.

I was confused to how it could be snowing so hard in one place and nothing in others. I found out later that somehow the snow only seemed to hit Scott County, Morgan County, and Cumberland County (maybe a couple of other counties but it was very spotty) despite supposed to have been a pretty big event for all of Eastern TN and KY. Does anyone remember that system? I was only 15 or so then so I don't remember all the dynamics, but I know we stayed dry as a bone at my house with no precipitation at all, but the places above really did end up with around a foot of snow.

 

This pic may be from the event I'm thinking of, February 16, 2004:

 

nsm_depth_2004021605_National.png

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3 hours ago, Shocker0 said:

Side note, I lived in Southeast Kentucky in 2004 and I remembered a big snow being hyped in mid February that year. They were calling for around a foot of snow and had already canceled school the day before in anticipation.

Well, we went to church that night (I believe it was a Wednesday night or a revival maybe, but during the week) on Brimstone Mountain south of Oneida, TN. The snow was supposed to come in later that evening and snow all night. We were driving South and were seeing cars coming in the northbound lanes with snow caked on the front of their cars, but there was no snow anywhere on the ground in Oneida.

Once we got up to the church we found the snow and it was pouring extremely heavy. Church was canceled so we turned around just to try to get out safely because of how quick it was piling up. By the time we got down the hill, there was no snow again. We went back home that night and woke up the next morning to no snow at all.

I was confused to how it could be snowing so hard in one place and nothing in others. I found out later that somehow the snow only seemed to hit Scott County, Morgan County, and Cumberland County (maybe a couple of other counties but it was very spotty) despite supposed to have been a pretty big event for all of Eastern TN and KY. Does anyone remember that system? I was only 15 or so then so I don't remember all the dynamics, but I know we stayed dry as a bone at my house with no precipitation at all, but the places above really did end up with around a foot of snow.

 

This pic may be from the event I'm thinking of, February 16, 2004:

 

nsm_depth_2004021605_National.png

I remember this event. MRX put the whole CWA under a winter storm warning the day before. Big bust. We had a dusting in the eastern suburbs. 

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Just now, dwagner88 said:

I remember this event. MRX put the whole CWA under a winter storm warning the day before. Big bust. We had a dusting in the eastern suburbs. 

Yeah it was very unique if I remember. It just reminded me a little of yesterday's event but on a much bigger scale. As far as I remembered it was supposed to hit most of Tennessee and Kentucky super hard, but ended up being super isolated to certain places and nothing in others. I didn't realize that some places actually got the huge snow that was forecast until we picked up a copy of the Morgan County TN News (parents family from there) and saw where they were using backhoes to clean the snow off the roads. Pretty crazy to see when we were 30 miles from heavy snow but got nothing. @John1122 probably got a good snow out of that one since it hit parts of Scott, Morgan and Cumberland counties

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The event from February 2004 there was on a Sunday.  The Plateau got generally 6-10 inches of snow. NE Tennessee got 3 or so.  It was a cold rain event in Oak Ridge and Knoxville but as far south as Norris had 3 or 4 inches. I worked in west Knoxville at the time. When I went to work that Monday people didn't believe me when I said it had snowed at my house until I showed them about 8 inches in the bed of my truck. 

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There was another mega bust in that timeframe where there were widespread winter storm warnings and the system was suppressed and no one got anything. 

There was a 3rd event on a weekday where the Plateau got pummelled with heavy snow, 6+ inches and the valley was all rain. Driving home from work that day it was pouring rain in Knoxville,  it was snowing and raining mixed at the Clinch river bridge, all snow with none on the ground at Lake City,  5+ inches of snow just south of Caryville with heavy snow falling. 

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The event from February 2004 there was on a Sunday.  The Plateau got generally 6-10 inches of snow. NE Tennessee got 3 or so.  It was a cold rain event in Oak Ridge and Knoxville but as far south as Norris had 3 or 4 inches. I worked in west Knoxville at the time. When I went to work that Monday people didn't believe me when I said it had snowed at my house until I showed them about 8 inches in the bed of my truck. 

That one had a sharp cutoff on its northern periphery. Here in Lee County I had 5 inches at my home in Jonesville at the time. Just a mile to my Southwest in Flatwoods there was 8". Stickleyville in se Lee County, between Wallens ridge and Powell Mtn.  reported 9 inches.  St Charles just the other side of Stone Mountain had a dusting. Big Stone gap had none.

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The event from February 2004 there was on a Sunday.  The Plateau got generally 6-10 inches of snow. NE Tennessee got 3 or so.  It was a cold rain event in Oak Ridge and Knoxville but as far south as Norris had 3 or 4 inches. I worked in west Knoxville at the time. When I went to work that Monday people didn't believe me when I said it had snowed at my house until I showed them about 8 inches in the bed of my truck. 

Man, I almost wonder if this was the other event you're talking about in that time frame then. I do specifically remember us driving to church that night to a church we had never attended, so I suppose a Sunday night is possible. I just remember being in high school the day before one of those events and them calling school off due to around a foot of snow incoming, but it never did anything where I lived (McCreary KY). Maybe in the 15 years since my brain is combining two different storms. I'll try to research it more. I actually have a very grainy picture on my computer somewhere of us trying to get off Brimstone Mountain that night after we ran smack into the snowfall.

 

It seemed like within 30 minutes there were already three inches of snow on the ground, heaviest snow I've ever seen, but just down from the mountain it was bone dry.

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I found something! This is the exact event I'm thinking of. It was so isolated that Crossville got almost a foot, and Jamestown a dusting. Both locations are on the Plateau and normally receive similar snowfall.

It seemed like it jumped over certain areas and hit others, almost like a pop up thunderstorm in the summer. I just remember it supposed to have been a widespread event, but thought it was a complete bust until we tried to go to church that night, and then seeing newspapers from Morgan County and Cumberland that week showing a heavy blanket of snow.

I honestly don't believe we received a drop of snow OR rain at my house from it, so it wasn't even like temperatures came into play for me, the storm just missed us somehow

 

Note: Deer Lodge and Sunbright are both in Morgan County and received heavy snow in this event, but I believe Wartburg, in the same county, received very little as well, if any.

Screenshot_20200221-205006_Chrome.jpg

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This must've been at least one of the events, and one that John is referencing as well. This post is mainly about West Tennessee, but the way they mention it seemed to be very spotty and hop around from place to place sounds a lot like what I remember from that system.

In fact, in the image at the link below, it shows about 9" of snow for my current location in NW Cumberland County (I lived in SE KY in early 2004 during this event and we received nothing in this storm), and virtually nothing in Monterey, only ten miles away!

https://www.weather.gov/hun/hunsur_2004-02-15

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53 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

This must've been at least one of the events, and one that John is referencing as well. This post is mainly about West Tennessee, but the way they mention it seemed to be very spotty and hop around from place to place sounds a lot like what I remember from that system.

In fact, in the image at the link below, it shows about 9" of snow for my current location in NW Cumberland County (I lived in SE KY in early 2004 during this event and we received nothing in this storm), and virtually nothing in Monterey, only ten miles away!

https://www.weather.gov/hun/hunsur_2004-02-15

Great find! That's the most narrow heavy snow band I've been in. I'm right on the edge of the bright band on the sat pic in the link. Think we got about 5-6" here. Maybe 20-25 miles wide. 

 

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5 hours ago, Shocker0 said:

This must've been at least one of the events, and one that John is referencing as well. This post is mainly about West Tennessee, but the way they mention it seemed to be very spotty and hop around from place to place sounds a lot like what I remember from that system.

In fact, in the image at the link below, it shows about 9" of snow for my current location in NW Cumberland County (I lived in SE KY in early 2004 during this event and we received nothing in this storm), and virtually nothing in Monterey, only ten miles away!

https://www.weather.gov/hun/hunsur_2004-02-15

It's the same event. The band apparently traveled ENE. Oneida got no snow from it. Anderson, Campbell County and into Claiborne got 4-8 inches. Jellico got nothing on the Ky border but Lafollette got 8 inches. Middlesboro Kentucky got 0.00 precip but Tazewell about 15 miles South of there got 5 inches of snow. Lancing which is 5 minutes from Wartburg got 9 inches. Oak Ridge got 7.5 inches of snow while Rockwood recorded a trace, Monteagle got 2 inches. Knoxville got trace snow but Norris, 15 miles north got 3 inches. . Further east, Abington, Va got 6 inches as did Mountain City. Rogersville got 4 inches, Morristown to Tri got 2 or 3 inches and Roan Mtn got 1.8 inches. While Jefferson City got a trace and Greenville 1/2 inch Newport and Sevierville 0. 

I remembered the event and that it hit my area heavily and not Knox. I also remembered Jellico and Whitley County getting nothing. But I didn't remember it being so randomly scattered around the state. 

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8 hours ago, John1122 said:

It's the same event. The band apparently traveled ENE. Oneida got no snow from it. Anderson, Campbell County and into Claiborne got 4-8 inches. Jellico got nothing on the Ky border but Lafollette got 8 inches. Middlesboro Kentucky got 0.00 precip but Tazewell about 15 miles South of there got 5 inches of snow. Lancing which is 5 minutes from Wartburg got 9 inches. Oak Ridge got 7.5 inches of snow while Rockwood recorded a trace, Monteagle got 2 inches. Knoxville got trace snow but Norris, 15 miles north got 3 inches. . Further east, Abington, Va got 6 inches as did Mountain City. Rogersville got 4 inches, Morristown to Tri got 2 or 3 inches and Roan Mtn got 1.8 inches. While Jefferson City got a trace and Greenville 1/2 inch Newport and Sevierville 0. 

I remembered the event and that it hit my area heavily and not Knox. I also remembered Jellico and Whitley County getting nothing. But I didn't remember it being so randomly scattered around the state. 

Yeah that's insane. I knew Oneida didn't get anything because we traveled through there during the event to get to that Church, and then on the way back we went through again and there was nothing in Oneida, or at my house 10 miles north of Oneida. However, 5-10 miles south of Oneida there were several inches. It was definitely a spotty event and I'm still not sure how it happened that way.

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