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meatwad

Pittsburgh PA Area Rest of fall and Winter 2019-2020 thread

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I know we all want that big daddy storm but I'd honestly be content with a 3-6 type storm at this point. 

I’d be content if I couldn’t see grass under the snow


.
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8 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

I know we all want that big daddy storm but I'd honestly be content with a 3-6 type storm at this point. 

I'd take them all winter long, because realistically a huge 12"-incher just doesn't come around very often.

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11 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:


Sign me up for #8


.

Me too, though I'd take just about any of them.  A shame to see some nice setups, only to have the inevitable happen.

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The ensembles show hope but the operationals show despair and cutter after cutter. The way the winter is going I'm gonna have to side with the cutter scenerio. Couple that with the a raging AO and this feburary already looks toast for any sustained winter weather. Maybe we get lucky and time something but even then I don't think it would hang around long. At this point I'd rather the end of February just torch and winter end. We can reset next year and hopefully have a snowy December. I can't remember the last time we had a prolonged winter in December. 

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My hopefully positive takeaway from this winter: improvements to modeling science.  We've seen time-and-time again models simply default to snow - and big snow - in the long-range.  Anytime we get within 4 to 7 days, however, all that snow vanishes into a calm wind.  The GFS is especially infamous for this, but it isn't alone.  Clearly there are limitations that seem to favor deep storm systems and lots of snow in the long range.  Ideally, folks can use this winter as another learning tool to correct these biases and flaws, and one day the models will stop teasing us with Siberian looks when all we get is ... Richmond, VA.

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Euro is atleast interesting with multiple wave scenario. Maybe we can push the boundary far enough south and get in the action. 

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On 1/27/2020 at 10:16 PM, jwilson said:

Long-term snowfall probabilities have us at essentially a 100% chance of more than three inches over the next couple weeks, but that doesn't mean a whole lot, really, considering the length of the term.

Yeah, remember that?  Well, it's down to 10% now.

EL OH EL

:facepalm:

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At this point, what are thoughts for Spring?  Just based on recent history, I'd say a below average March (ironic considering winter), transition to a warm April and a warm May, and too much rain.  I don't even want to look at long range forecasts from those on the Internet, as 99% were so off for winter it's comical.

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1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Canadian, Euro, and GFS all have the Thursday night storm.

 GFS and Euro are decent tracks, but the late development dampens are snow qpf.

 

That looks like the next window for something more significant. We are going to need those waves leading up to it to push the gradient SE, so probably less confidence than normal on track / development of that system until those things get resolved. 

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00z suite is coming in this evening. Models are all over the place. So many different pieces they are trying to figure out. Long week of watching...

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Given how awful this winter is, waking up to a surprise inch or so made me want to do a jig. It's very pretty to finally see some white stuff, even just for a bit. 

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46 minutes ago, OutnOakmont said:

Given how awful this winter is, waking up to a surprise inch or so made me want to do a jig. It's very pretty to finally see some white stuff, even just for a bit. 

Looks like a winter wonderland out there this morning. Probably about an inch but it’s stuck to everything. I decided to sleep in for once and missed it falling but still a nice suprise.

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9 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

00z suite is coming in this evening. Models are all over the place. So many different pieces they are trying to figure out. Long week of watching...

We are precariously close to all rain for all 3 waves. The third one remains the best shot we can muster a 2-4 or 3-6 type event. Looks like GFS/CMC still give us a shot but Euro had the low in western Ohio.

As you said lots of pieces of energy that will affect the final outcome and I don’t expect any of the models have the exact progression nailed down yet.

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46 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Looks like a winter wonderland out there this morning. Probably about an inch but it’s stuck to everything. I decided to sleep in for once and missed it falling but still a nice suprise.

Lol. Same here. If I knew that band was coming I wouldn't have fallen back to sleep. 

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Euro and GFS actually look similar for once (Thursday into Friday).  The Canadian is also somewhat similar, but it's a bit more strung out initially and then cranks the primary low later (Saturday).  It's all a very odd evolution.  It amounts to three straight days of rain (Tuesday through Thursday) and then snow on Friday, but obviously the location and strength of the primary/ULL would factor into how much snow we get, if any.  The GFS does go negative tilt. 

We're under 7 days which makes this "agreement" unusual for the winter, but given all the moving pieces, I'm not ready to buy in to any solution.  I have to think a more progressive storm is likely which would limit our accumulations to nothing, more or less.

I don't even know if it's worth mentioning because we're due to have the rug pulled out in another cycle or two, but there's nothing else to talk about.

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Since the super bowl is boring.....I thought I’d jump in here with my pessimistic thoughts on this weeks storms. I have a hard time believing that we get a triple barrel low. Odds are always in our favor for rain with an inch or less back end snows. :facepalm:

Sometimes you have to try reverse psychology :ee:

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1 hour ago, north pgh said:

Since the super bowl is boring.....I thought I’d jump in here with my pessimistic thoughts on this weeks storms. I have a hard time believing that we get a triple barrel low. Odds are always in our favor for rain with an inch or less back end snows. :facepalm:

Sometimes you have to try reverse psychology :ee:

Something we've seen for many years, is the inability for any strong inland runners to develop south of PA.

We also tend to be on the wrong side of the boundary with moisture laden overrunning systems.

The three separate waves are tough to deal with.

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