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WxUSAF

Winter 2019-20 Preseason Discussion

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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I'd be perfectly happy if your outlook verifies. I do find it jnteresting that your forecast focuses on modoki influence driving the Pac/NA bus on balance of met winter. Looking at current ens guidance it sure looks like a nino to me but I've mostly discounted the influence as there is no gradient in the Pac near Nino 3.4-4. It's just a massive bowl of AN sstas in general. But hey, it's completely acceptable if a modoki takes over. Lol

I don't do seasonals but I've had a strong gut hunch that winter in the mid atlantic would be pretty close to avg in both temps and snowfall. Iso says that's unlikely and honestly I was a little surprised with his overall forecast. I'll hug yours and @griteater's for now. 

Grit, I was going to comment in your thread earlier but my wifi kept dropping and pissing me off and then ADD took over. Lol. You couldn't have written a sweeter outlook for the MA region considering mixed signals and no clear easy clues. I'll just hug a blend of yours and Ray's and tune up my shovel before Dec. 

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21 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd be perfectly happy if your outlook verifies. I do find it jnteresting that your forecast focuses on modoki influence driving the Pac/NA bus on balance of met winter. Looking at current ens guidance it sure looks like a nino to me but I've mostly discounted the influence as there is no gradient in the Pac near Nino 3.4-4. It's just a massive bowl of AN sstas in general. But hey, it's completely acceptable if a modoki takes over. Lol

I don't do seasonals but I've had a strong gut hunch that winter in the mid atlantic would be pretty close to avg in both temps and snowfall. Iso says that's unlikely and honestly I was a little surprised with his overall forecast. I'll hug yours and @griteater's for now. 

Grit, I was going to comment in your thread earlier but my wifi kept dropping and pissing me off and then ADD took over. Lol. You couldn't have written a sweeter outlook for the MA region considering mixed signals and no clear easy clues. I'll just hug a blend of yours and Ray's and tune up my shovel before Dec. 

Bob - after last winter, I almost joined you in the group that "doesn't do seasonals" but the affliction kicked in during October and I decided to write one.  Thank you (and FRD) on the comments.  Good luck to you all this winter.  We'll chat with you down the road.

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1 hour ago, frd said:

How good is the JAMSTEC? 

 

 

If I was going to try and interpret that precip map, which isn’t easy, I’d say it screams a cutter pattern. How else do you end up with positive anomalies along the apps and Ohio Valley and simultaneous abnormal dryness along the southeast and mid Atlantic coasts?

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32 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

f I was going to try and interpret that precip map, which isn’t easy, I’d say it screams a cutter pattern. How else do you end up with positive anomalies along the apps and Ohio Valley and simultaneous abnormal dryness along the southeast and mid Atlantic coasts?

I am not so sure about cutter, and even if correct I am happier to see the cold. 

When I magnified the image up I could speculate maybe a clipper pattern.

The immediate Middle Atlantic and SE coast is interesting.  I wouldn't worry about that too much. Heck, I am not even sure how well the JAMSTEC does . To me just a piece of data.  

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9 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If I was going to try and interpret that precip map, which isn’t easy, I’d say it screams a cutter pattern. How else do you end up with positive anomalies along the apps and Ohio Valley and simultaneous abnormal dryness along the southeast and mid Atlantic coasts?

Miller B.

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On 11/12/2019 at 3:37 PM, wxdude64 said:

Hey, I see some brown! All the ones up here I have seen are zero brown, all black!!

Black is better for winter storms etc... so your good. Lol

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3 hours ago, UniversesBelowNormal said:

No established ENSO pattern.. in non-El Nino it's been a bad run for the last 5 years. I also see that the jet stream is generally lifting north. 

I don’t disagree totally but the last enso neutral winter we had was 2013/14 so I don’t think we can use a “trend” to dismiss this winter. 

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On 11/16/2019 at 2:08 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Miller B.

Exactly. But for us it’s trouble with the exception of when those cutters can cut close to the west side of the apps before they jump. We can get front end out of those with some hp to our ne.

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6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Webb says winter will arrive! Although early/mid January seems pretty normal for a Nino, not that early. 

 

Yea in most ninos with a torch December the flip happens sometime in January, typically in a step down that starts early January. So no idea how he gets that conclusion. I agree the progression based on the mjo is ahead.  If we actually do enter the warm phases early December it’s unlikely that it lasts into January. Last year we entered mjo hell about Dec 15 and by early Jan we were getting colder and that was a record long warm phase wave. His timing of a month long warm phase mjo induced torch seems odd imo. Maybe there are other factors he isn’t articulating well in the posts here. But his January flip idea wouldn’t be early either, actually typical for a nino. 

ETA:  it’s kind of like he is the anti JB.  Where everything is skewed towards the best case scenario for snow with JB...Webb skews everything towards the worst. So getting a typical outcome is like the best case scenario to him. 

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