CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 The Lake Enhancement is what I'm starting to get excited about seriously especially for No, Onondaga and So. Oswego with a llv flow out of the WNW mixed in with the Synoptic further up in the column so that ensures awesome snow growth from the lower levels from the LE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 19 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Good Idea! I'll start one tonight so it can say Dec 1st. Start of Meteorological winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 As already mentioned this is a classic miller B type storm track. Most of these storms do not go further NW last minute as the primary is weakening. As a result of that you have to worry about the dreaded last minute SE trend. If the secondary develops just a tiny bit quicker it can result in all the dynamics being transferred quicker to the secondary low pressure and hit New England harder. You also have to worry about possible dry slot issues if the primary hangs on longer then expected. This is a higher latitude miller B then pictured below so the track is a little different but same concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: The Lake Enhancement is what I'm starting to get excited about seriously especially for No, Onondaga and So. Oswego with a llv flow out of the WNW mixed in with the Synoptic further up in the column so that ensures awesome snow growth from the lower levels from the LE! Oh, I like to hear that! You're more familiar about climate around here. I think I actually like lake enhanced events more than lake effect. Even if you don't get the 6 inch per hour rates, I prefer the consistent downpour of snow that comes with lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 NWS went with an advisory.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 They suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: NWS went with an advisory.. If it plays out like their Lake Effect headlines (and maps), you're golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 It's warning criteria over 36 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Eps snow mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 They seem pretty set on sleet and freezing rain mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 NWS is probably going with the gfs for the front end (warmest model) and the euro with the coastal (misses us just to the east) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 All I can say about nws in buffalo is wow sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Your probally right they are biased towards gfs for some god awful reason. I'd say maybe long range has got better. But it's short mid range sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Well, BUF's advisory for Oswego says 6 to 11 inches. That doesn't sound like a miss. It's the NWS's reasoning that often prompts questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Maybe the soundings show something different but that's not even close to a mix.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 With that being said, they still have 5"-9" in the forecast tomorrow and 90% of snow Monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 They got rochester at 1 to 3 inches. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Well if Rochester mixes with the initial over running, then probably not far off.. Watch the trends on the hrrr as we get closer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I really think they are either out to lunch half the time with there forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 No 1 to 3 for entire storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 If KBUF could predict the future, they'd get the weather part wrong, lol, one of the worst offices and dont care who reads this thread. Novembers event was a complete and utter bust, but there were WSW for 9-13" here, and we got 3" of slop, lol so to be quite honest, I could care less what they predict, cause most likely, it will be wrong, fortunately!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Perhaps they see things the rest of us don't see. I would go with more conservative forecasts at this point...and be pleasantly surprised if the heavier amounts do materialize. Less disappointment and heart ache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I'm glad I'm on the border cause I can then default to KBGM's forecast, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 In all seriousness though, they're probably playing it safe obviously with the totals their predicting 7-11" so in all likelihood, adv will be upgraded but who knows, that's why we track the bastards!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Rpm. Not to familiar with this model. But falls online with other short range guidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 In reading BUF's most recent forecast discussion, they seem pretty unimpressed with this system in terms of winter weather. "1 to 3 inches in part 1 east of Rochester"..."mixture"..."2 to 4 tomorrow night." Mention of "12Z runs showing bigger push of warm air." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 My point is if the initial slug is a mix and the bulk of the coastal misses to the east, that's what u get and I bet they are going with that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 17 minutes ago, tim123 said: No 1 to 3 for entire storm Yeah. I agree. This isn’t a good track for ROC. Unfortunately. Hope I’m wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 KBUF is riding the GFS, simple as that.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.