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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2019 OBS Thread

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Bottomed out at 30F this morning. Looking ahead there was this in the medium  range on this mornings GFS.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

 

Not sure we want snow in November though after last year. :lol: Pattern these first 2 weeks of November is looking pretty cold, would love to see this in December and January though.

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27 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Bottomed out at 30F this morning. Looking ahead there was this in the medium  range on this mornings GFS.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

 

Not sure we want snow in November though after last year. :lol: Pattern these first 2 weeks of November is looking pretty cold, would love to see this in December and January though.

But did you see the BOMB on the Euro just a bit too far off the coast around the 13th? Something is going down during that period. Same time frame the GFS was dropping Barney's PV into the region for a few runs. And yes, other guidance like the GFS op has a storm but not nearly as organized/consolidated as the Euro. Certainly worth a look over the next several days....see if it has legs.

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EPS and GEFS fairly similar irt key features during this period. Ridge bridge over top is nice, PV over the GL with trof along EC, ridging out West (PNA and EPO). Would like to see the WAR start feeding the NAO as we head later into the fall and become a recurring progression. 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_32.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9.png

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14 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Wasn't the universal consensus only a week ago that a milder than normal November was likely? 

 

 

I don't know about universal but the long range was showing that this cold spell would be short lived and we'd rebound to above normal after a few days. Now it looks like cold shot moderating to near normal then another cold shot and repeat. At least as of right now.  

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Front comes thru Thursday maybe some flakes on the backside especially far NW zones. Potential still showing for something around the 12th/13th. Worth keeping an eye on anyway since it could provide the first flakes of the season for parts of the metro area.

EpS has been solid on the signal. Lost the bomb that it was showing but overall has a nice look with energy rounding a trof in the East and a wave off the coast throwing back some moisture into a fresh cold air mass.

GEFS is trending in the right direction. I am posting the mslp trends over the past 4 runs as well as the 500mb anomaly maps. Note the pna ridge firing out west with each run. 

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_fh180_trend.gif

gfs-ens_z500a_us_fh180_trend.gif

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16 hours ago, RedSky said:

Looks like a partial PV intrusion this month not the full scale lobe like last November. Far below normal but not the 30F below like last year that was insane.

 

Congrats on next week. Every medium range model has you getting measurable snow now. NJ in the crosshairs less than a week out. What could possibly go wrong? ;)

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GEFS and GEPS close to the coast. EPS oddly enough is the farthest SE and off the coast. Not a bad place to be. Would rather this be 3 or 4 weeks from not but this can definitely happen especially with a fresh cold arctic air intrusion as modeled.

 

gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_28.png

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_29.png

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A bit OT but does anyone else miss the long duration events of the past? Feels like forever since we've had one. The fast movers are fun especially when you get insane rates but I love the 24 hour+ events like PD 2003. Hope we get some blocking during this winter so we can see another, it's been since 2010 since we have gotten one of those I believe.

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12z GFS is a bit warmer and weaker with the low so the 95 corridor starts as rain and has a solid period of mixed precipitation but still has a long duration winter event. Snow totals aren't as robust but it's good to see it have some consistency. Now we hope for the Euro to climb back aboard at 12z. The 00z euro still brought 1-2 inches to us despite it being well east of the GFS. I'd take that in a heartbeat for mid november. 

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

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32 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

12z GFS is a bit warmer and weaker with the low so the 95 corridor starts as rain and has a solid period of mixed precipitation but still has a long duration winter event. Snow totals aren't as robust but it's good to see it have some consistency. Now we hope for the Euro to climb back aboard at 12z. The 00z euro still brought 1-2 inches to us despite it being well east of the GFS. I'd take that in a heartbeat for mid november. 

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

The usual trends have begun....congrats New England and far interior lol. Joking of course but funny to see the jump from the bullseye SE of us now into NE.

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12 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Ukie is an apps cutter. Good times are here again.

 

If this were DJF many would be reading the signs and sticking a fork in this one. Whaddya think.....95% of the time we see this, these systems never trend back the right way? 

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16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If this were DJF many would be reading the signs and sticking a fork in this one. Whaddya think.....95% of the time we see this, these systems never trend back the right way? 

Too early and we are not past weenie handbook rule #11 and what will the 12z ECM say. New GFS is like an 86 Ford Escort.

 

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Euro only shifted about 250 miles west from 00z lol great consistency. I don't think any solution is set in stone yet. Models clearly don't have a good read on it right now. Let's wait until we are inside 4 days before making definitive statements on the storm.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEPS is flat, weak sauce, and far enough off the coast to essentially be a nonfactor

Go figure. So we have everything from apps runner, coastal hugger, or OTS. I don't think any of the models have a clue right now with the drastic changes run to run on many of them.

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