Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

15 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Update for late reporting cooperative observation sites. Falcon Dam recorded a high of 106F yesterday!

 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Some more information on that one... 

 

[WolfStock1]

Not an expert in UHI effects, but Lander isn't exactly the middle of nowhere - it is a town of 7k+ people.

What's needed is data like this from actual remote sites, that aren't at cities / towns at all - e.g. sensors at national parks / forests, etc.    Remove all question w/regards to UHI.

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, WolfStock1 said:

Not an expert in UHI effects, but Lander isn't exactly the middle of nowhere - it is a town of 7k+ people.

What's needed is data like this from actual remote sites, that aren't at cities / towns at all - e.g. sensors at national parks / forests, etc.    Remove all question w/regards to UHI.

 

 

We've had that for 21, going on 22, years - it's called the United States Climate Reference Network and it shows more, not less, warming than the official numbers over the period of overlap. 

 

[WolfStock1]

59 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

We've had that for 21, going on 22, years - it's called the United States Climate Reference Network and it shows more, not less, warming than the official numbers over the period of overlap. 

 

 

Hmmm - well - looking at their locations https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/crn/  - that's not really what I'm talking about.   It looks like just about all of those sites are actually suburban sites, or at least "close to city" rural sites.     For example the one in central NC is in Duke Forest - but that's practically surrounded by Durham, which is a fast-growing urban area.   The one in southern LA is at Cade Farm which is rural-ish, but is only 3 miles from the edge of Lafayette.   The one in western VA is only 1 mile from I-64 and Charlottesville, Etc.

What I'm talking about would be truly rural sites - ones where there isn't a significant city within about 50-100 miles or so.    I see very few if any sites of those that fit that bill.

 

 

[GaWx]

55 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Hmmm - well - looking at their locations https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/crn/  - that's not really what I'm talking about.   It looks like just about all of those sites are actually suburban sites, or at least "close to city" rural sites.     For example the one in central NC is in Duke Forest - but that's practically surrounded by Durham, which is a fast-growing urban area.   The one in southern LA is at Cade Farm which is rural-ish, but is only 3 miles from the edge of Lafayette.   The one in western VA is only 1 mile from I-64 and Charlottesville, Etc.

What I'm talking about would be truly rural sites - ones where there isn't a significant city within about 50-100 miles or so.    I see very few if any sites of those that fit that bill.

 

 

Blairsville, GA

[WolfStock1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Blairsville, GA

Here are the Georgia sites:

 

 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

Here are the Georgia sites:

 

 

 

1) Cumberland is certainly rural: https://www.nps.gov/cuis/planyourvisit/staffordbeach.htm

2)-3) Ichauway appears quite rural, too:

https://www.jonesctr.org/about-us/

4) Colham Ferry appears to be a burb of Watkinsville, a town with only ~3K:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watkinsville,_Georgia#:~:text=Watkinsville is the largest city,County%2C Georgia Metropolitan Statistical Area.

 ————

 What do you think of these 4 as far as not having UHI to worry about?

[WolfStock1]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

1) Cumberland is certainly rural: https://www.nps.gov/cuis/planyourvisit/staffordbeach.htm

2)-3) Ichauway appears quite rural, too:

https://www.jonesctr.org/about-us/

4) Colham Ferry appears to be a burb of Watkinsville, a town with only ~3K:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watkinsville,_Georgia#:~:text=Watkinsville is the largest city,County%2C Georgia Metropolitan Statistical Area.

 ————

 What do you think of these 4 as far as not having UHI to worry about?

 

Yes unlike many of the others Georgia appears to have done a good job picking truly remote sites.  Ideally you'd like to see all the sites be like that, since it's usually an average of all sites that's shown (e.g. in the X post).

I haven't looked for it, but was just noticing that a lot of the references in this thread to records / high trends are in areas that may be subject to UHI effect.   Would be nice to see some for remote sites instead, since IMO that's much more meaningful.

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Yes unlike many of the others Georgia appears to have done a good job picking truly remote sites.  Ideally you'd like to see all the sites be like that, since it's usually an average of all sites that's shown (e.g. in the X post).

I haven't looked for it, but was just noticing that a lot of the references in this thread to records / high trends are in areas that may be subject to UHI effect.   Would be nice to see some for remote sites instead, since IMO that's much more meaningful.

Do you or does anyone else know how much these 4 GA locations warmed? I’d really like to know due to their supposed lack of UHI effect.

@TheClimateChanger

@donsutherland1

@chubbs

[donsutherland1]

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Do you or does anyone else know how much these 4 GA locations warmed? I’d really like to know due to their supposed lack of UHI effect.

@TheClimateChanger

@donsutherland1

@chubbs

Brunswick 23S (2005-2025), Newton 11 SW (2003-2025), Newton 8W (2003-2025) are warming about 0.9°/decade. That matches Georgia's statewide warming during 2003-2025/2005-2025. Watkinsville 5 SSE (2005-2025) is warming 0.6°/decade, which is somewhat slower than the statewide average. 

[chubbs]

17 hours ago, WolfStock1 said:

Not an expert in UHI effects, but Lander isn't exactly the middle of nowhere - it is a town of 7k+ people.

What's needed is data like this from actual remote sites, that aren't at cities / towns at all - e.g. sensors at national parks / forests, etc.    Remove all question w/regards to UHI.

 

 

In my experience UHI is a red herring. Often raised; but, never documented with hard evidence. UHI is a local effect while climate change is global. There are thousands of stations in the US. Easy to determine if most of the warming is from UHI or not.There is UHI of course, but it doesn't have much impact at most stations. The urbanization occurred a long time ago or doesn't occur near the station.  Lander appears to be one of those cases.

The Lander airport weather station is well outside of the town's footprint. In a dry area like Lander irrigation or grass watering could have an effect. The photo shows greening from watering outside the built-up area. There could easily be a negative or small UHI impact there. Lander's population rose rapidly before 1970 but hasn't changed much since 1970; with ups and downs, and a small decline since 2010. Lander Airport temperatures have risen slightly since 1940, with most of the rise after population stabilized in 1970. There doesn't appear to be much correlation between temperature at the airport and local population, with flat or declining temperatures during the most rapid population rise in the 1950s and 60s.  Its possible that grass watering is counteracting other population effects; but, there isn't enough information to make a strong case. Note that the coolest year 2017 is impacted by missing data. Other regional stations weren't cool that year.  Removing 2017 would increase recent warming somewhat.