Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[TheClimateChanger]

11 hours ago, tacoman25 said:

Mmmk. Live by the sword, die by the sword. If you want to count on AGW driving monthly anomalies, you also have to account for when a Feb 2021 happens.

FWIW, I think a top 5 warmest January in the U.S. is highly unlikely. Just looking at the blocking in AK.

I didn't predict that it would be either. I was just pointing out that, with the current anomaly, the second half could be completely normal and it would still be close. With that said, it's pretty much guaranteed to finish in the Top 20, with Top 10 quite likely. As the colder end, in the means, shouldn't be nearly as extreme as the current positive anomaly. 

[FPizz]

On 1/9/2026 at 10:29 AM, tacoman25 said:

That makes things easier, huh? But was he wrong?

Like he doesnt lol

China has more coal capacity under construction than the entire existing US coal fleet (~230 GW vs ~175 GW). But yeah, let be like them! Dolts

[chubbs]

9 hours ago, FPizz said:

Like he doesnt lol

China has more coal capacity under construction than the entire existing US coal fleet (~230 GW vs ~175 GW). But yeah, let be like them! Dolts

You aren't looking at the whole energy picture. China's use of existing coal plants is dropping. The next few years will tell the tale. Which will slow first in China, new coal or renewable construction?  In any case China's energy strategy is much more realistic than ours.  They have less fossil fuel and renewable resources than we do, yet their energy is abundant and cheap. We are in energy denial, betting on a horse that is falling further and further behind every day. 

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coal-power-drops-in-china-and-india-for-first-time-in-52-years-after-clean-energy-records/

[WolfStock1]

3 hours ago, chubbs said:

You aren't looking at the whole energy picture. China's use of existing coal plants is dropping. The next few years will tell the tale. Which will slow first in China, new coal or renewable construction?  In any case China's energy strategy is much more realistic than ours.  They have less fossil fuel and renewable resources than we do, yet their energy is abundant and cheap. We are in energy denial, betting on a horse that is falling further and further behind every day. 

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coal-power-drops-in-china-and-india-for-first-time-in-52-years-after-clean-energy-records/

 

In general China is doubling-up their energy production - new fossil plants *and* new renewable (and nuclear) - because they can afford to.  They can afford to because they pay their workers roughly 1/3 what US workers are paid, and because they generally don't worry about NIMBY or environmental impact like we do here in the US; e.g. their Medog Hydro project in Tibet.   The US hasn't built a significant new dam in 50 years, let alone one close to the size of Medog or Three Gorges.   (by comparison our largest - Grand Coulee - is about 1/8 the size of Medog and 1/3 the size of Three Gorges).

It's not some kind of anti-renewable / pro=fossil policy that's holding back the US - it's a combination of higher regulation and environmental protection, NIMBYism, the fact that China is less prosperous than the US, and also simple geography.

[TheClimateChanger]

Surprised nobody shared the 2025 global numbers. Most temperature datasets say 3rd warmest, slightly behind 2023, although NASA's GISTEMP narrowly edged out 2023 for 2nd warmest. 2024 is the unanimous #1 in all major datasets.

 

[chubbs]

NOAA ocean heat content surged last year. Agrees with other ocean heat datasets for 2025 posted above. Another sign of accelerating warming since the hiatus ended.

 

 

[chubbs]

21 hours ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

In general China is doubling-up their energy production - new fossil plants *and* new renewable (and nuclear) - because they can afford to.  They can afford to because they pay their workers roughly 1/3 what US workers are paid, and because they generally don't worry about NIMBY or environmental impact like we do here in the US; e.g. their Medog Hydro project in Tibet.   The US hasn't built a significant new dam in 50 years, let alone one close to the size of Medog or Three Gorges.   (by comparison our largest - Grand Coulee - is about 1/8 the size of Medog and 1/3 the size of Three Gorges).

It's not some kind of anti-renewable / pro=fossil policy that's holding back the US - it's a combination of higher regulation and environmental protection, NIMBYism, the fact that China is less prosperous than the US, and also simple geography.

We aren't helping ourselves by adopting anti-renewable/EV policies. These technologies are still coming to the US, but at a slower pace than they would have.

[WolfStock1]

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

We aren't helping ourselves by adopting anti-renewable/EV policies. These technologies are still coming to the US, but at a slower pace than they would have.

 

In general the policy shift hasn't been "anti-renewable" though - it's been towards weaning renewables off the government tit to self-sustaining mode.    The cancellations have been when people and companies find that many of these projects are not actually financially viable.

However that said - of note is that this started happening in late 2023 - long before the current administration came in and started implementing its policy shift.    As such much of the failures of these projects had nothing to with policy - but rather a slow popping of the post-covid renewable energy bubble.

 

[ChescoWx]

[ChescoWx]

On 1/9/2026 at 3:50 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

 

So my climate pair....one of these things is not warming like the other....wonder why?

[TheClimateChanger]

36 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

So my climate pair....one of these things is not warming like the other....wonder why?

Thank you for the comment. The official values for Chester County show more warming over that period. It looks like your numbers start near the NOAA values and then drift lower over time. Not sure how you are correcting for changing station basket or is this only comparing one or two sites.

[ChescoWx]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Thank you for the comment. The official values for Chester County show more warming over that period. It looks like your numbers start near the NOAA values and then drift lower over time. Not sure how you are correcting for changing station basket or is this only comparing one or two sites.

It looks like those are the adjusted altered figures....slope is wrong on the above

[Cobalt]

3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Thank you for the comment. The official values for Chester County show more warming over that period. It looks like your numbers start near the NOAA values and then drift lower over time. Not sure how you are correcting for changing station basket or is this only comparing one or two sites.

Wow, 6F per century if this trend line continues.