Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[chubbs]

21 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Funny how Charlie picks his starting point as 1970...I wonder why?? Oh wait I see it below - he starts with one of our coldest decades...cyclical climate change FTW!! 

Nope, I was just matching the years when you claimed the Philadelphia Airport was having a big heat island effect. I am happy to go further back. I extended my chart back to 1941, the origin of temperature data collection at the Philadelphia airport. The Philadelphia airport matches Coatesville fairly well until the big Coatesville station moves in 1946 and 1947, whose effect is clearly seen.  Before the station moves, the Coatesville station was located in a built up section of the City of Coatesville. Roughly as warm as the Philadelphia Airport. Not representative of Chester County. The big heat island effect on this chart is in Chester County not Philadelphia. The reverse heat island due to the Coatesville station move to a more rural location. 

The West Chester station experienced a similar move to a cooler, less built-up, location in 1970. The 1970s are cool in your chart because of faulty analysis. If you correct for the station moves and other network siting changes over the years, like NOAA does, the 1970s don't stand out as a cool decade.

Funny that you complain about heat island effects in Philadelphia but ignore them in Chester County.

 

[ChescoWx]

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

 

For a actual view of the real data see the below....can you see the UHI problem clearer now Charlie?

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[chubbs]

10 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

For a actual view of the real data see the below....can you see the UHI problem clearer now Charlie?

You have Chester County as warm as Philadelphia in 1942. That's your UHI problem. Other local data warms in line with Philadelphia. including Coatesville after its 1946+47 station moves. 

Chester County only had 3 stations in the 1930s, 40s and 50s. Two of them, Coatesville in 1946+47 and West Chester in 1970, had station moves from town---> rural that produced roughly 2F cooling. Since you aren't correcting for station moves and network changes you are baking a reverse heat island effect into your calculations. Surprised a heat island expert like yourself, can't understand that.

[TheClimateChanger]

Thoughts for this morning:

 

[ChescoWx]

On 6/9/2025 at 8:35 PM, chubbs said:

You have Chester County as warm as Philadelphia in 1942. That's your UHI problem. Other local data warms in line with Philadelphia. including Coatesville after its 1946+47 station moves. 

Chester County only had 3 stations in the 1930s, 40s and 50s. Two of them, Coatesville in 1946+47 and West Chester in 1970, had station moves from town---> rural that produced roughly 2F cooling. Since you aren't correcting for station moves and network changes you are baking a reverse heat island effect into your calculations. Surprised a heat island expert like yourself, can't understand that.

Only by chilling the past for all stations can you make that trend line work! Man made climate change in action above! LOL!

[chubbs]

Solar by the numbers. The solar age is here.

https://aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/the-coming-solar-era-in-numbers

[chubbs]

New paper analyzing the flowering date of Kyoto Cherries. Warming began to impact cherry flowering around 1890. Per the paper, urbanization and changes in cultivation are unlikely to have had much impact at that time.

https://nph.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nph.70268

[dseagull]

On 5/28/2025 at 12:47 PM, bdgwx said:

Oh...got it...so the requirement is that you must prove it is wrong. That is convenient because even the most trivial analysis would prove some level of wrongness, but if you don't even make the attempt then you can always claim that you never proved it to be wrong. Brilliant!!

"Wrongness?"  I love lurking on this thread for nonsensical crud like this. 

I hope you were highly intoxicated when you posted this.  (And just incase you are mentally retarded, my sincere apologies.  I just assumed you were of sound mind.)

[dseagull]

On 6/7/2025 at 11:46 AM, ChescoWx said:

We will all keep up the good fight by using actual scientific facts and data against what is the true source of perceived warming - man made climate data alterations being made to the factual raw data.

You will never convince cultists of anything, despite providing data and well-rounded and unbiased observations.   I admire your tenacity, in terms of using factual and logical arguments in questioning the absurdities within the climate catastrophe narrative.  

Good luck...  you are debating science with the same folks that decided that there are an untold number of genders.  Good grief...

Geological timescale is something that weak-minded individuals have difficulty with.  "The thirst for answers" will often create delusional mob mentality.   

[Typhoon Tip]

https://phys.org/news/2025-06-climate-bright-red-scientists.html

[chubbs]

An interesting study that helps explain other recent findings. 

Plain Language Summary

Analysis of satellite observations shows that in the past 24 years the Earth's storm cloud zones in the tropics and the middle latitudes have been contracting at a rate of 1.5%–3% per decade. This cloud contraction, along with cloud cover decreases at low latitudes, allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. When the contribution of all cloud changes is calculated, the storm cloud contraction is found to be the main contributor to the observed increase of the Earth's solar absorption during the 21st century.

The paper also discusses the causes. An important contributing factor is a shift of clouds polewards in part due to Hadley Cell expansion.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL114882

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, chubbs said:

An interesting study that helps explain other recent findings. 

Plain Language Summary

Analysis of satellite observations shows that in the past 24 years the Earth's storm cloud zones in the tropics and the middle latitudes have been contracting at a rate of 1.5%–3% per decade. This cloud contraction, along with cloud cover decreases at low latitudes, allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. When the contribution of all cloud changes is calculated, the storm cloud contraction is found to be the main contributor to the observed increase of the Earth's solar absorption during the 21st century.

The paper also discusses the causes. An important contributing factor is a shift of clouds polewards in part due to Hadley Cell expansion.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL114882

 

I'm thinking cloud cover is actually increasing in the northeast though, just going by how much wetter our climate has been getting.
 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, chubbs said:

An interesting study that helps explain other recent findings. 

Plain Language Summary

Analysis of satellite observations shows that in the past 24 years the Earth's storm cloud zones in the tropics and the middle latitudes have been contracting at a rate of 1.5%–3% per decade. This cloud contraction, along with cloud cover decreases at low latitudes, allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. When the contribution of all cloud changes is calculated, the storm cloud contraction is found to be the main contributor to the observed increase of the Earth's solar absorption during the 21st century.

The paper also discusses the causes. An important contributing factor is a shift of clouds polewards in part due to Hadley Cell expansion.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL114882

 

no shit ( bold )

I've started bringing this observation up about 15+ years ago actually ... long before it even showed up in papers, that the HC was appearing to be enlarged(ing).

I have been relating it to winter gradient steepening and the observed increase in basal geostrophic wind velocities - also the jet cores them selves have quickened. 

Lot of air-land speed record on west --> east flying commercial air craft over the Pac and Atlantic flight routes in the last 20 years.  

Anyway, it's effecting storm morphology...  and precipitation distribution as well as frequency in the winter.  But the cloud aspect ... yeah that's interesting too.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no shit ( bold )

I've started bringing this observation up about 15+ years ago actually ... long before it even showed up in papers, that the HC was appearing to be enlarged(ing).

I have been relating it to winter gradient steepening and the observed increase in basal geostrophic wind velocities - also the jet cores them selves have quickened. 

Lot of air-land speed record on west --> east flying commercial air craft over the Pac and Atlantic flight routes in the last 20 years.  

Anyway, it's effecting storm morphology...  and precipitation distribution as well as frequency in the winter.  But the cloud aspect ... yeah that's interesting too.

but here in the northeast our air has become more humid and more cloudy, I compare years like 1944, 1948, 1949, 1953, 1955, 1966, when it was far easier to hit 100+ in drier air than it is now.  Our cloudiness has increased since that earlier, much drier era.

 

[bdgwx]

It turns out Lindzen's Iris Theory is yet another failed contrarian theory. The Earth does not have some magical iris that prevents warming by reducing absorbed solar radiation. In fact, the consilience of evidence points to a positive shortwave feedback which was hypothesized as early as the 1960s.

[LibertyBell]

49 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

It turns out Lindzen's Iris Theory is yet another failed contrarian theory. The Earth does not have some magical iris that prevents warming by reducing absorbed solar radiation. In fact, the consilience of evidence points to a positive shortwave feedback which was hypothesized as early as the 1960s.

if anything it actually adds to warming by increasing overnight lows (even if it does dampen down extreme highs in the NE and other areas that have been getting excessive rainfall.)

 

[Typhoon Tip]

https://phys.org/news/2025-07-fossils-earth-famous-extinction-climate.html

 

 Particularly alarming when the study cites destruction of the tropical flora band, which is precisely what anthropomorphic influence is doing

[TheClimateChanger]

Will be interesting to see where June 2025 places. Looks like we won't beat 2021 but good chance to finish in the top 5. It should be noted that 2021 is the warmest by a long shot, as you can see on the temperature plot below. Last year finished in second place.

Below is an article from the Washington Post on the heat in June, with a map showing temperature anomalies. Per the article, above is +1 to +3, and well above +3 or better. If this is line with NCEI's final numbers, the CONUS temperature would certainly place in the Top 10 warmest. Like I said 2021 looks hotter on my glance at the data, but probably not too far from last year's final tally. I compared the map below to 2022 [11th hottest June] and this map is clearly warmer than that month. In 2022, the only widespread area of +3F or greater anomalies was in Texas and scattered locations along the Gulf Coast and in the Southwest. This year saw widespread 3F or greater anomalies throughout the interior west, the Upper Ohio Valley, parts of the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic.

June was hotter than usual, and humid. See where your area ranks. - The Washington Post

Here's what 2022 [11th place] looks like on NCEI divisional maps, with the same anomaly convention [+1, +3, -1, -3]:

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Will be interesting to see where June 2025 places. Looks like we won't beat 2021 but good chance to finish in the top 5. It should be noted that 2021 is the warmest by a long shot, as you can see on the temperature plot below. Last year finished in second place.

Below is an article from the Washington Post on the heat in June, with a map showing temperature anomalies. Per the article, above is +1 to +3, and well above +3 or better. If this is line with NCEI's final numbers, the CONUS temperature would certainly place in the Top 10 warmest. Like I said 2021 looks hotter on my glance at the data, but probably not too far from last year's final tally. I compared the map below to 2022 [11th hottest June] and this map is clearly warmer than that month. In 2022, the only widespread area of +3F or greater anomalies was in Texas and scattered locations along the Gulf Coast and in the Southwest. This year saw widespread 3F or greater anomalies throughout the interior west, the Upper Ohio Valley, parts of the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic.

June was hotter than usual, and humid. See where your area ranks. - The Washington Post

Here's what 2022 [11th place] looks like on NCEI divisional maps, with the same anomaly convention [+1, +3, -1, -3]:

 

 

June 2025 has the hottest weather I've experienced since 2011 and 2010.  Didn't get all that hot here in 2021, that was an inland hot summer

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2021 had a major heatwave in the Pacific Northwest. It shattered records. I think it got >120F in Canada. 

[TheClimateChanger]

14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

2021 had a major heatwave in the Pacific Northwest. It shattered records. I think it got >120F in Canada. 

Yes, 2021's record heat was driven by extreme anomalies out west, although it was fairly warm across most of the country. Much of the interior northwest was more than 6F above the 1991-2020 average.

[bdgwx]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

2021 had a major heatwave in the Pacific Northwest. It shattered records. I think it got >120F in Canada. 

It hit 121 F in Lytton, British Columbia on June 29th, 2021.

Prior to the 2021 heat wave the previous high temperature in Canada was 112 F. 

It is interesting to note that the extreme heat and drought that day caused Lytton to burn to the ground...literally. A wildfire developed and consumed the entire town including the weather station before it could record the daily high on the following day.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bdgwx said:

It hit 121 F in Lytton, British Columbia on June 29th, 2021.

Prior to the 2021 heat wave the previous high temperature in Canada was 112 F. 

It is interesting to note that the extreme heat and drought that day caused Lytton to burn to the ground...literally. A wildfire developed and consumed the entire town including the weather station before it could record the daily high on the following day.

didn't an entire town burn down out there because of the heat?  Lytton was the one-- how does it get so hot out west that far north and yet it can't do that in the northeast?

we get the more humid lower temp kind of heat.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bdgwx said:

It hit 121 F in Lytton, British Columbia on June 29th, 2021.

Prior to the 2021 heat wave the previous high temperature in Canada was 112 F. 

It is interesting to note that the extreme heat and drought that day caused Lytton to burn to the ground...literally. A wildfire developed and consumed the entire town including the weather station before it could record the daily high on the following day.

Could the following day actually have been hotter but it wasn't recorded because the weather station was destroyed?

I remember the recorded high was 50C which should actually be 122F

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

2021 had a major heatwave in the Pacific Northwest. It shattered records. I think it got >120F in Canada. 

Was that the one in which Seattle hit 109?

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

didn't an entire town burn down out there before the heat?  Lytton was the one-- how does it get so hot out west that far north and yet it can't do that in the northeast?

we get the more humid lower temp kind of heat.

Man, I've been tracking global warming for decades and some things still just stop me in my tracks. January is warming at 11F/century in parts of the eastern US over the past 5 1/2 decades. This is a steady long-term trend that is older than me! Just unbelievable. I mean simply extrapolating this trend, suggests that Januarys by the early 22nd century will be warmer than recent Marches. This is just extrapolation of the long-term trend. With acceleration, will we see this increase to 15 or 20F per century?

 

[TheClimateChanger]

July is warming by as much as 5 or 6 degrees per century, which is substantially less. However, the latitudinal variance is considerably less, so that's possibly an even bigger shift in terms of latitude. Will everyone east of the Mississippi have a South Carolina low country climate by 2100? Will the Southeast turn into a blazing inferno of deadly wet bulb events?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Was that the one in which Seattle hit 109?

I think Portland hit 116F.. not 100% sure though. 

[ChescoWx]

A view of our summers by decade here in the Philly burbs of Chester County....without the typical chilling alterations of the past and warming the current....as always not much warming at all.