jojo762 Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Already several semi-discrete supercells across NE OK/C OK with rotation on them FWIW... It’s going to be one of “those” days where anything that isn’t messy is going to rotate... big question on if we get discrete activity though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 30, 2019 Author Share Posted April 30, 2019 And here's an SREF forecast this for what it's worth. 60% sigtor probability contour showing up in a small area of southern OK, with a 45% contour across much of central OK and a small area of north-central Texas along the Red River: I only wish I could find the calibrated SREF that jojo762 speaks of. SPC also now has a 10% hatched tornado risk in south-central OK and much of SE OK. A small area along the Red River in north Texas is also under the 10% hatched risk; furthermore, the slight risk has been shifted back south across all of the DFW metro area, but it seems that the worst will be NW of DFW. EDIT: and it looks like we have our first tornado warning of the day NE of OKC, in Payne and Lincoln counties. Not surprised with the fairly high EHI out ahead of that storm cluster in central OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Today is yet another in a long line of tricky days to forecast. Too many storms and the tornado threat will be tempered significantly. Storm mode leans a bit more discrete, which some models have shown, and we could be seeing a pretty significant outbreak across OK, AR with a couple of intense tornadoes. Different set-ups obviously, but kind of reminds me of the March 3 Dixie outbreak earlier this year. We didn’t really know until storms got going that day that the storm mode would be worst case and a sizable outbreak was going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 There was a tornado warned storm for Southern Payne Northern Lincoln counties ffor noon 4/30. Okc news stations all over where this cold front is sitting up in Okc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Tornado probability graphic I referenced earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 30, 2019 Author Share Posted April 30, 2019 It looks like convective initiation is trying to take place around Ardmore as well. I'm wondering if this will try to develop into something more significant, though the best conditions would be later in the day. EDIT: new tornado warning in northern OK north of Pawhuska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 I am watching the line of convection that is currently in central MO that likely will lay down a boundary that could potentially enhance the tornado risk in the STL metro, and that is something the NWS office here is also monitoring. We’ve had some sun break through the cirrus deck and temps are responding rapidly now that the warm front has retreated north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Not sure what they are waiting on with the watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, MUWX said: Not sure what they are waiting on with the watch... There is an MD out right now. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0477 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019 Areas affected...Oklahoma...Far North Texas...Far Northwest Arkansas...Far Southeast Kansas...Far Southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 301641Z - 301845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is likely to increase across the region over the next few hours. A tornado threat, along with wind damage and large hail will be possible as cells intensify. A tornado watch will likely be needed relatively soon. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a stationary front from north-central Oklahoma extending southwestward into northwest Texas. Along and south of the boundary, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which is contributing to a moderately unstable airmass. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE values across the warm sector in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Along the instability gradient, a small cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is developing in north-central to northeastern Oklahoma. This activity is expected to continue to move northeastward across northeast Oklahoma. The Tulsa WSR-88D VWP shows 0-6 km shear of 35 kt with 0-3 km storm relative helicity near 270 m2/s2. This shear environment will support supercell development associated with a tornado threat. The tornado threat will be greatest with cells that track northeastward along the front. Large hail and wind damage will also be possible with this activity. Further to the south across southern Oklahoma, convection is beginning to initiate in the vicinity of Ardmore. Some uncertainty exists concerning how fast this activity will ramp up this afternoon. For this reason, a tornado watch will likely be needed over the next hour. The current thinking is that cells will gradually increase in coverage and intensity with a severe threat developing by 18Z in south-central and east-central Oklahoma. The deep-layer shear environment will favor supercell development. In addition, RAP forecast soundings gradually increase low-level shear this afternoon across east-central Oklahoma, which will become more favorable for tornadoes. Large hail and wind damage will also be possible with supercells that develop. ..Broyles/Hart.. 04/30/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: There is an MD out right now. And multiple tornado warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Watch till 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araqiel Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 47 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: I only wish I could find the calibrated SREF that jojo762 speaks of. You can find that here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=guidance_tor_spchazcal_024h§or=conus&rd=20190430&rt=1200 This is the 24-hr calibrated tornado probs under SPC Guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 This is escalating very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 30, 2019 Author Share Posted April 30, 2019 New tornado warning up on the storm NE of Ardmore and SE of Sulphur. Only minor radar returns around my area right now but I'm wondering if something could evolve out of it later today near DFW. HRRR has been playing on the idea of storms near DFW for quite some time, but that model could be overdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 New Tornado warning for a storm in Sulphur Oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Tornado on the ground near Sulphur Oklahoma approaching Ada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Tornado in progress on the SC OK storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Live tornado on KOCO right now - really solid structure & large cone attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Amazing footage on KOCO - can't say that any other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Dangerous day seems to be evolving across southern/eastern Oklahoma... Not a ton of storms yet, and everything staying mostly discrete thus far. Essentially everything is rotating. Hopefully last nights HRRR forecasts dont pan out because yikes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 And I think they just got hit by the tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Chaser on KOCO seem to have possibly been hit by the outside of the circulation?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 I would agree with this placement of the boundary right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 The cell due south of Miami, OK is organizing and will track really close to Joplin in the next 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Cell entering Okfuskee County, Oklahoma will probably worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 The KFWS hodograph remains very similar to the 12Z FWD sounding. This is probably rather characteristic of the wind profiles across much of southern Oklahoma right now, including where the recent tornado was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, SluggerWx said: The cell due south of Miami, OK is organizing and will track really close to Joplin in the next 2 hours. Been watching this one as well, it is fairly discrete. Some broad rotation is already evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Warning for Ada, Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 30, 2019 Author Share Posted April 30, 2019 Ada storm seems to have a funnel on it (per KOCO livestream) but the storm seems to be weakening on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Latest renditions of the HRRR, in addition to latest surface and satellite observations certainly suggest this setup could reach its ceiling. HRRR depicting numerous discrete cells across Oklahoma for the rest of the day before an eventual transition into a linear/QLCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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